Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH impacts of climate change on food security in vietnam

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES

HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE

VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS

VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS

PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

SECURITY IN VIETNAM

BY

HUỲNH THỊ NHI

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013

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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES

HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE

VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS

VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS

PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD

SECURITY IN VIETNAM

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

By

HUỲNH THỊ NHI

Academic Supervisor

Ph.D NGUYỄN HỮU DŨNG

HO CHI MINH CITY, January 2013

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION..............................................................................................................i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT..............................................................................................ii

ABSTRACT....................................................................................................................iii

LIST OF TABLES .........................................................................................................iv

LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................v

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS......................................................................vi

Chapter 1..........................................................................................................................1

INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................1

1.1. PROBLEM STATEMENT ....................................................................................1

1.2. RESEARCH OBJECTIVIVES ..............................................................................3

1.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS....................................................................................3

1.4. RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS..........................................................................4

1.5. ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY ....................................................................4

Chapter 2..........................................................................................................................6

LITERATURE REVIEW...............................................................................................6

2.1. BASIC CONCEPT AND DEFINITION................................................................6

2.1.1. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) .......................................................................................... 6

2.1.2. Emissions..................................................................................................................... 6

2.1.3. Climate Change ........................................................................................................... 6

2.1.4. Climate Change Scenario ............................................................................................ 9

2.1.5. Sea Level Rises ......................................................................................................... 10

2.1.6. Food Security ............................................................................................................ 10

2.1.7. Scenario ..................................................................................................................... 11

2.1.8. Simulation ................................................................................................................. 11

2.2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .......................................................................11

2.2.1. Theoretical Literature ................................................................................................ 11

2.2.2. Empirical Studies ...................................................................................................... 17

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2.2.3. Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................. 24

2.3. CHAPTER REMARKS .......................................................................................26

Chapter 3........................................................................................................................26

CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, FOOD SUPPLY AND CLIMATE

CHANGE IN VIETNAM .............................................................................................27

3.1. CURRENT SITUATION OF FOOD DEMAND, AND FOOD SUPPLY..........27

3.1.1 Paddy Production ....................................................................................................... 27

3.1.2. Domestic Rice Consumption and Export .................................................................. 32

3.2. CURRENT SITUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ..........................................35

3.3. CHAPTER REMARKS .......................................................................................35

Chapter 4........................................................................................................................39

METHODOLOGY AND DATA..................................................................................39

4.1. METHODOLOGY...............................................................................................39

4.2. SOURCE OF DATA............................................................................................43

4.3. CHAPTER REMARKS .......................................................................................44

Chapter 5........................................................................................................................45

DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ...........................................................................45

5.1. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE YIELD IN MEKONG DELTA 45

5.2. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND FOOD SECURITY SCENARIOS IN

VIETNAM UP TO 2030 .............................................................................................49

5.3. CHAPTER REMARKS .......................................................................................58

Chapter 6........................................................................................................................59

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................59

6.1. SUMMARY OF THE STUDY AND CONCLUSIONS .....................................59

6.2. RECOMMENDATIONS .....................................................................................60

6.3. LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEASRCHES ..........................................61

REFERENCES..............................................................................................................63

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APPENDIX ....................................................................................................................69

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i

DECLARATION

I declare this is the scientific research of my own. Data collection and analysis in this

paper is truthful, not distorted. This paper is not copied from the others. In my research,

I have used some data from previous studies which were studied by official

organizations. For these data, I have already written the sources clearly below in tables

as well as in paper’s Appendix and References.

I hereby undertake responsibility for the contents of my thesis. And I certify that this

study has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently

submitted for any other degree.

Ho Chi Minh City, January 2013

Huynh Thi Nhi

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ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Fist of all, I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Dung for his

intellectual support and his wonderful inspiration. I am grateful for his support and

kindness in helping me at every stage of my research. His knowledge about rural

development and environment issues has helped me to understand and enjoy those

issues. The suggestions and comments from him are significant which was improved

my research. Without his understanding and encouragement, I would not complete this

paper. Secondly, my thanks go to Dr. Nguyen Van Ngai, who was given some hints for

my topic as well as methodology in the first step.

In addition, I also would like to thank Dr. Ha Thuc Vien and Dr. Tran Tien Khai who

taught me the deep knowledge of the economic environment as well as inspired me to

environment issues.

Finally, my thanks go to my family and my friends who were at my side and supported

to me throughout this program. I would not finished my course unless their

encouragements.

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iii

ABSTRACT

This paper studies how climate change impacts on national food security. Econometric

model is used to estimate from the secondary data as pool data of Mekong Delta in

period 2001-2010. The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield

function. The result indicates that in Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by

1%, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% and the rice yield also decreases

0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1%, holding all other factors

constant. The qualitative analysis and simulations with different scenarios are also

applied to build on Vietnam’s food security scenarios up to 2030. The findings show

that Vietnam has to face the lack of rice for consuming up to 2030 in IPSL-2030

climate change scenario. This country needs to add 4.2 million tons of rice to ensure

food security at the national level. Meanwhile, in GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030

scenarios, Vietnam is still ensure for domestic consume, and the surplus rice for

export in these two scenarios are 0.4 and 1.5 million tons, respectively.

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