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Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH estimation of crude oil import demand of OECD countries
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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS ERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAM
HO CHI MINH CITY INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIE
VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS
VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS
PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
ESTIMATION OF CRUDE OIL IMPORT
DEMAND OF OECD COUNTRIES
BY
HOANG TUNG DIEP
MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
HO CHI MINH CITY, SEPTEMBER 2016
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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES
HO CHIMINH CITY THE HAGUE
VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS
VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS
PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
ESTIMATION OF CRUDE OIL IMPORT DEMAND
OF OECD COUNTRIES
A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
By
HOANG TUNG DIEP
Academic Supervisor:
DR. PHAM THI BICH NGOC
HO CHI MINH CITY, SEPTEMBER 2016
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iii
DECLARATION
I declare that: “Estimation of crude oil import demand of OECD countries” is my own
work; it has not been submitted for any degree at other universities.
I confirm that I have made all possible effort and applied all knowledge for finishing this
thesis to the best of my ability.
Ho Chi Minh City, September 2016
Hoang Tung Diep
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iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express deepest gratitude to my academic supervisor, Dr Pham ThiBich
Ngoc who gives me helpful comments, excellent guidance. Her patience and caring brings the
motivation for me.
I would like to send my special thanks to Dr. Truong Dang Thuy who always gives me
good advices whenever I got stuck. Additionally, he is the person push me to finish this thesis
and always cares of my thesis process.
I am also grateful to Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hoai and Dr. Pham Khanh Nam and all of
Vietnam – Netherland staffs who always support us for the two-year of studying.
Last but not least, my sincerest thanks are for my family, my friends. Without their
frequent encouragement as well as spiritual support, I would not have been able to complete this
thesis.
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v
ABSTRACT
Crude oil is considerably the most important energy for world economy and most of all countries
were affected by the crude oil price no matter they are played as the producers or consumers or
both. Applying the data of 27 OECD countries from 1988 to 2013, this thesis conducts the
import demand model to estimate the income elasticity and price elasticity for OECD together
with the impact of financial crisis on 2008, the domestic crude oil production, the exchange rate,
the population growth. The estimation of price elasticity for the whole region is -0.155 suggests
that OECD is not sensitive with the increase in crude oil import price. Additionally, the income
elasticity of whole region is 0.562 implies that income raise would lead to the increase in
economic activities, so that the demand for crude oil increases. Finally, the impact of world
financial crisis is confirmed in the estimation.
Keywords: crude oil, demand, import, OECD, price elasticity, income elasticity, crisis
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