Luận văn thạc sĩ UEH determinants of secondary school dropouts in vietnam, panel data evidence

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES

HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE

VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS

VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS

PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

DETERMINANTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL

DROPOUT IN VIETNAM:

A PANEL DATA EVIDENCE

BY

LE ANH KHANG

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

HO CHI MINH CITY, JULY 2012

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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES

HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE

VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS

VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS

PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

DETERMINANTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL

DROPOUT IN VIETNAM:

A PANEL DATA EVIDENCE

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

By

LE ANH KHANG

Academic Supervisor:

Dr. LE VAN CHON

HO CHI MINH CITY, JULY 2012

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Joining classes of quantitative research project with STATA & VHLSS2008,

hold by the Faculty of Development Economics of HCMC University of Economics

and the applied econometrics seminar by Prof. Dr. Ardeshir Sepehri from University

of Manitoba, Canada, have encouraged and yielded me confident to move this paper

ahead.

I would like to express my thanks to Mr. Phung Thanh Binh, Mr. Truong Thanh

Vu, Mr. Nguyen Khanh Duy, Ms. Ngo Hoang Thao Trang, and Mr. Dang Dinh Thang

and all other people participated for arranging and conducting the quantitative

research project with STATA & VHLSS2008.

I would like to express my appreciation to Dr. Nguyen Hoang Bao who

introduced the logistic regression model in explaining school dropout behavior at a

“sharing experience in doing research” seminar on August, 2010, hold by the Faculty

of Development Economics of HCMC University of Economics.

I would like to express my gratitude to Prof. Dr. Ardeshir Sepehri who has

sparked the idea of analyzing VHLSS dataset by panel data methods to capture the

unobserved heterogeneity.

I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr. Le Van Chon, my supervisor,

who provides me directive suggestions during the thesis performing.

I would like to thank all professors in the teaching board of MDE program, who

have helped me accumulate valuable knowledge to acquire this study.

To all my friends in MDE class 16, who give me emotional encouragements, I

would like to express my thanks.

Finally, I would like to express my deeply appreciation to my parents, to my

wife and my son, to my family for spiritual supports. In particular, I dedicate this

thesis to my father.

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1

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the socioeconomic determinants of dropout behavior of

Vietnamese children in secondary schools using the Vietnam Household Living

Standard Survey for 2006 and 2008 and logistic regression model for Panel data.

Determinants are considered at individual, household, schooling, and regional levels.

My findings reveal that the unobserved individual characteristics account for 17% in

propensity of dropping out of secondary schools in different years 2006 and 2008.

Furthermore, the results disclose that child gender, child age, child ethnic, child

inactive days, household expenditure, household head gender, household head

education, the number of children between 1 and 17 years old, cost of school, urban￾rural, and regions have statistically significant relationship with secondary school

dropout.

Key Words: secondary school dropout; panel; logistic model; random effects;

Vietnam

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 6

CHAPTER 2:LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................. 8

2.1 A standard model of household schooling investment decision ............... 8

2.2 Empirical studies of school dropout in the world ................................... 10

2.3 Empirical Studies of school dropout in Vietnam .................................... 12

CHAPTER 3:VIETNAMESE SECONDARY EDUCATION – AN OVERVIEW15

CHAPTER 4:RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .................................................... 20

4.1 Data ......................................................................................................... 20

4.2 Methodology ........................................................................................... 22

CHAPTER 5:THE RESULTS ............................................................................... 29

5.1 Descriptive Statistics............................................................................... 29

5.2 Dropout rates and Children characteristics ............................................. 31

5.2.1 Dropout rates and Household characteristics ...................................... 32

5.2.2 Dropout rate and School characteristics.............................................. 35

5.2.3 Dropout rates and Regional characteristics......................................... 36

5.3 Regression Results .................................................................................. 37

CHAPTER 6:CONCLUSION................................................................................ 45

REFERENCES....................................................................................................... 47

APPENDIX .......................................................................................................... 52

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1: Description of the variables.................................................................. 26

Table 5.1: Descriptive statistics ............................................................................. 30

Table 5.2: Regression results of the Random-effects models................................ 37

Table 5.3: The estimation of dropout probability, given initial probalibity P0...... 38

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