Các nhân tố tác động đến xác suất vỡ nợ của doanh nghiệp ngành bất động sản niêm yết trên sở giao dịch chứng khoán thành phố Hồ Chí Minh: Khóa luận đại học chuyên ngành tài chính - ngân hàng / Võ Thị Cẩm Nguyên ; Nguyễn Thị Như Quỳnh người hướng dẫn khoa học

BỘGIÁO DỤC & ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM

TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH

CÁC NHÂN TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN XÁC SUẤT VỠ NỢ

CỦA DOANH NGHIỆP NGÀNH BẤT ĐỘNG SẢN

NIÊM YẾT TRÊN SỞ GIAO DỊCH CHỨNG KHOÁN

TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH

KHÓA LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP

CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH - NGÂN HÀNG

MÃ SỐ: 52340201

BỘGIÁO DỤC & ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM

TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH

CÁC NHÂN TỐ TÁC ĐỘNG ĐẾN XÁC SUẤT VỠ NỢ

CỦA DOANH NGHIỆP NGÀNH BẤT ĐỘNG SẢN

NIÊM YẾT TRÊN SỞ GIAO DỊCH CHỨNG KHOÁN

TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH

KHÓA LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP

CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH - NGÂN HÀNG

MÃ SỐ: 52340201

NGƢỜI HƢỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC

THS. NGUYỄN THỊ NHƢ QUỲNH

TÓM TẮT

Xác suất vỡ nợ là chỉ số định lƣợng thể hiện khả năng vỡ nợ của một doanh

nghiệp. Chỉ số này giúp các nhà quản trị doanh nghiệp cũng nhƣ các nhà làm chính

sách ƣớc lƣợng đƣợc khả năng xảy ra phá sản của doanh nghiệp và có cái nhìn tồng

thể để đề ra các phƣơng án kịp thời hạn chế hậu quả. Theo đó, việc xem xét các

nhân tố tác động đến xác suất vỡ nợ của một doanh nghiệp bất kỳ để đánh giá xác

suất vỡ nợ của doanh nghiệp đó là cần thiết. Do đó, khóa luận tốt nghiệp hƣớng

mục tiêu nghiên cứu nhằm xem xét các nhân tố tác động đến xác suất vỡ nợ của

doanh nghiệp. Nghiên cứu sử dụng dữ liệu của 47 doanh nghiệp ngành BĐS niêm

yết trên Sở giao dịch chứng khoáng Tp Hồ Chí Minh trong giai đoạn 2015-2019.

Bằng kỹ thuật hồi quy dữ liệu bảng với phƣơng pháp ƣớc lƣợng OLS, FEM, REM,

FGLS. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy khả năng thanh toán, khả năng sinh lời, hiệu

suất hoạt động có tác động ngƣợc chiều đến xác suất vỡ nợ của doanh nghiệp ngành

BĐS niêm yết trên Sở giao dịch chứng khoáng Tp Hồ Chí Minh và cơ cấu nguồn

vốn tác động cùng chiều đến xác suất vỡ nợ của các doanh nghiệp này. Từ đó,

nghiên cứu đề ra các biện pháp nhƣ: tăng cƣờng hoạt kinh doanh, kiểm soát nguồn

thu chi, thực hiện tốt nghĩa vụ trả nợ,…đối với các doanh nghiệp ngành BĐS.

Từ khóa: Vỡ nợ, xác suất vỡ nợ, doanh nghiệp ngành BĐS, tỷ số tài chính.

ABSTRACT

The default probability is a quantitative indicator showing the default ability

of a business. This index helps business administrators as well as policymakers to

estimate the bankruptcy of enterprises and have a general view to propose timely

solutions limit the consequences. Accordingly, it is necessary to consider the factors

affecting the default probability of any enterprise to evaluate the default probability

of that enterprise. Therefore, the graduation thesis aims at research objectives to

consider factors affecting the probability of default of enterprises. Research using

data of 47 real estate companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange for

the period 2015-2019. By using table data regression technique with estimating

methods OLS, FEM, REM, FGLS. The research results show that solvency,

profitability, and operational performance have a negative impact on the default

probability of real estate enterprises listed on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange

and capital structure has a positive impact on the default probability of these

businesses. Since then, the study proposed measures such as: strengthening business

activities, controlling revenue and expenditure, well performing debt repayment

obligations, ... for real estate enterprises.

Keywords: default, the default probability, real estate companies, financial ratio.

1. Reaser Research

In the financial relationship between banks and enterprises, there exist binding

conditions on loans for both parties to agree on. In which, the first condition that

commercial banks place for enterprises in need of capital for business development

is that they must ensure the solvency of loans to banks in future. In other words, the

bank will accept loans to businesses if the bank's assessment shows that the

business has a low probability of default, the financial conditions of the business

can afford the loan at the bank. On the contrary, if the probability of default of the

enterprise is high, the capital mobilization from the bank of the enterprise will face

difficulties, and hinder the business development of the enterprise. Therefore, it is

very necessary to evaluate the default probability of the business from the bank's

perspective

In addition, the assessment of the default probability of the business is also

essential that investors need to pay attention to, to well support the investment

consideration process for any business and avoid possible risks. Even businesses

themselves need to estimate the probability of default to avoid them, as well as take

timely measures for sudden economic problems.

In assessing the default probabilities of businesses across the Vietnamese

economy, assessing the default probabilities of businesses in the real estate industry

is considered a priority for commercial banks. Due to the characteristics of the real

estate industry and businesses in the real estate industry related to financial services

and banking operations. From the provision of investment capital for real estate

businesses to the provision of credit to customers with housing needs and also to

small individual investors in the real estate market. Therefore, the assessment of the

probability of default for real estate companies will be more focused in appraisal.

In addition, during the period of the global economic crisis caused by the

Covid-19 epidemic, it had a negative impact on all large and small businesses

across the Vietnamese economy, thereby having a lot of influence on the default

probability of these enterprises. Especially, the freezing of the real estate market

affects business operations and capital mobilization from commercial banks of real

estate enterprises. Most of all, large-scale real estate companies are listed on the Ho

Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and the Hanoi Stock Exchange.

Through research review of domestic and foreign research topics on the

probability of default of enterprises by authors Gordon (1971), Karels và Prakash

(1987), Brown et al (1993), Denis (1995), Andrade và Kaplan (1998), Platt (2002),

Purnanandam (2005), Ross, Westerfield, Jaffe & Jordan (2008), Nguyen Thi Nga

(2018), Vo Minh Long (2020) shows that most studies mention financial stress,

bankruptcy, business failure, financial risk, ... and there is no specific definition of

the probability of default. In addition, the studies Nguyen Thi Nga (2018), Hay

Sinh (2013), Luu Huu Duc, Diem T.T Hai (2017), Vu Thi Loan (2017), Vo Minh

Long (2020) mentioned the default probabilities of businesses and real estate

companies, but there is no research on the default probability of real estate

companies listed on HOSE.

In order to perform a detailed assessment of the effectiveness of the default

probability of an enterprise, it is necessary to analyze the influence of the factors

affecting the default probability of enterprises. More specifically, the analysis of the

ability to influence factors affecting the default probability of real estate companies

listed on HOSE.

Therefore, realizing the essentiality of the research problem, the author

selected the topic “FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEFAULT PROBABILITY OF

ENTERPRISE LISTED ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE OF HO CHI MINH

CITY”as the subject for graduation thesis.

2. Research objectives

2.1. General research objectives

The general research objective of the topic is to examine the impact of factors

on the default probability of the real estate firms listed on HOSE in the period from

2015 to 2019.

2.2. Specific research objectives

To solve the above general research objectives, the topic focuses on solving

specific objectives as follows:

 Measuring the default probability of the real estate companies listed on HOSE

in the period 2015-2019.

 Consider c evil factors affecting the probability v ỡ debt real estate companies

listed on HOSE .

 Measure and dimension the impact of these factors on the

probability v ỡ debt for corporate real estate sector listed on the HOSE .

 Proposed recommendations to help businesses minimize determine Jumbo t

break the debt of this business

3. Research question

From the above specific research objectives , the topic proceeds to solve the

following research questions:

 How is the default probability of the real estate companies listed on HOSE

measured?

 What factors affect the probability of default of real estate companies listed on

HOSE in the period 2015-2019?

 How factors affect the probability of default of real estate companies listed on

HOSE in the period 2015-2019?

 What are recommendations for real estate companies listed on HOSE, banks,

and investors?

4. Research scope and object

4.1. Research subjects

Thesis focused research on the subject as follows:

 Probability of default, real estate companies listed on HOSE .

 Factors determining impact Jumbo t break the debt of real estate enterprises

listed on the HOSE period 2015-2019.

4.2. Research scope

Space: Do research towards a certain group of businesses in a specific industry

to make the research more detailed. In addition, due to the author's limited access to

information that is not publicly available. Therefore, the graduate thesis chooses the

research scope of 47 real estate companies listed on HOSE.

Time: In the period 2015-2019 , this is the time when real estate enterprises

face many problems such as legal delays, insolvency due to declining housing

demand, difficult difficulties in mobilizing capital, the ability to repay outstanding

debts,… This affects the finances of enterprises in this industry a lot, even some

businesses facing high risk of bankruptcy. Besides, this period follows 2020, a time

of global economic crisis due to epidemics, so the pressure on real estate

businesses is not mild. Therefore, choosing the period 2015-2019 to do research for

the topic will help businesses, banks, and investors have a more overview and

detailed view.

5. Research Methods

The thesis uses qualitative research methods combined with quantitative. In

particular, qualitative methodology was conducted through survey research strategy

prior to the proposed research model and sign appropriate expectations for sales

nghiệ p real estate listing at HOSE. Quantitative methods are performed through

data regression through OLS, FEM , REM methods . In the case of defect models

such as variable variance and autocorrelation, the study used FGLS estimation

method for reference.

6. Research implications

6.1. Contribute theoretically

Review previous studies to clearly reinforce the default probability concept.

Together, the integrated study of the factors that determine the impact to Jumbo t

break the debt of enterprises real estate sector in general and determine Jumbo t

break the debt of enterprises real estate listing at HOSE particular.