Tác động của đa dạng hóa thu nhập đến khả năng sinh lời của ngân hàng thương mại / Phạm Quỳnh Như ; người hướng dẫn khoa học

BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM

TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH

PHẠM QUỲNH NHƢ

TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA ĐA DẠNG HÓA THU NHẬP ĐẾN KHẢ NĂNG

SINH LỜI CỦA NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI

KHÓA LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP

CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH – NGÂN HÀNG

MÃ SỐ: 52340201

TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH, NĂM 2019

BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO NGÂN HÀNG NHÀ NƢỚC VIỆT NAM

TRƢỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGÂN HÀNG TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH

PHẠM QUỲNH NHƢ

TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA ĐA DẠNG HÓA THU NHẬP ĐẾN KHẢ NĂNG

SINH LỜI CỦA NGÂN HÀNG THƢƠNG MẠI

KHÓA LUẬN TỐT NGHIỆP

CHUYÊN NGÀNH: TÀI CHÍNH – NGÂN HÀNG

MÃ SỐ: 52340201

NGƢỜI HƢỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC

TS. NGUYỄN CHÍ ĐỨC

TP. HỒ CHÍ MINH, NĂM 2019

TÓM TẮT

Đa dạng hóa đang là một xu hƣớng tất yếu khi môi trƣờng cạnh tranh trong hoạt

động tín dụng ngày càng gia tăng và cơ hội để khai thác lợi nhuận từ các hoạt động

ngoài tín dụng là rất lớn. Trong những năm gần đây, cơ cấu thu nhập của các ngân

hàng tại Việt Nam đang dần chuyển dịch từ các hoạt động tín dụng sang các hoạt

động dịch vụ phi tín dụng. Các nghiên cứu lý thuyết cho thấy đa dạng hóa thu nhập

thƣờng dẫn đến kết quả là mức độ rủi ro thấp hơn và lợi nhuận cao hơn. Từ bối cảnh

thực tế cũng nhƣ nghiên cứu lý thuyết, khóa luận thực hiện phân tích tác động của

đa dạng hóa thu nhập đến khả năng sinh lời của ngân hàng thƣơng mại (NHTM) tại

Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2008 – 2018. Mục đích của nghiên cứu nhằm nâng cao

khả năng sinh lời của ngân hàng dựa trên những kết quả nghiên cứu. Sau khi thu

thập dữ liệu của 26 NHTM trên báo cáo tài chính, nghiên cứu thực hiện hồi quy dữ

liệu bảng theo phƣơng pháp FEM hoặc REM (dựa trên kiểm định Hausman) trên

phần mềm Stata. Khóa luận cũng thực hiện các kiểm định cần thiết cho mô hình để

từ đó đƣa ra mô hình tốt nhất cho nghiên cứu. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy có sự

tác động cùng chiều của đa dạng hóa thu nhập lên khả năng sinh lời, đo lƣờng thông

qua chỉ tiêu ROA và ROE. Các biến cho vay khách hàng, tăng trƣởng tài sản cũng

có tác dụng thuận chiều, trong khi biến tiền gửi khách hàng và hiệu quả chi phí có

tác động ngƣợc chiều. Kết quả trên cho thấy việc dạng hóa thu nhập giúp tăng khả

năng sinh lời của ngân hàng, do đó để khai thác tốt tiềm năng lợi nhuận từ các hoạt

động ngoài lãi, ngân hàng cần nâng cao năng lực quản lý trong hoạt động kinh

doanh đầu tƣ, cải tiến sản phẩm dịch vụ, đầu tƣ hiệu quả vào cơ sở hạ tầng và nâng

cao chất lƣợng đội ngũ nhân sự, đặc biệt là đội ngũ nhân viên tiếp xúc trực tiếp với

khách hàng.

ABSTRACT

Revenue diversification has become the tendency because of the limitation of

interest activities and the potential of noninterest activities. This thesis investigates

the impact of income diversification on the profitability of commercial banks. There

are five chapters in this thesis, the title of chapter 1 is general introduction, chapter

2 is theoretical basis, chapter 3 is research model, chapter 4 is research results,

chapter 5 is conclusions and recommendations.

Chapter 1 gives an overview about reason for choosing this topic, target of the

study, subject and scope of the research and the meaning of the thesis.

The motivation for the development of new products comes from the wave of

financial liberalization, financial institutions need to meet market demand, while the

competitive environment increases, which require expansion of operations and

promote liberalization and diversification. The developing economy makes

investment activities more attractive. In service activities, the development of

information technology supports banking services, helps banks sell more products

and services with lower costs. Furthermore, the government has made decisions on

restructuring credit institutions, with the goal of doubling the proportion of income

from non-credit services. Because of these reasons, this research aims to find the

impact of income diversification on profitability of commercial banks.

The purpose of the study is to improve the profitability of banks based on research

results. Thesis uses accounting data from 26 Vietnamese commercial banks over the

period from 2008 to 2018. The research helps to orienting banking business,

promoting beneficial factors and control factors that reduce bank profits.

Chapter 2 briefly introduces about commercial banks, income structure of

commercial banks, theory of diversification and profitability. This chapter also

summarizes the theoretical issues of the previous study such as motivations for

diversification, the impact of diversification on profitability, the reason why

potential benefits from diversification and profitability that bank can get are

different, as well as explain the volatility of non-interest income.

Commercial banks are the type of banks that carry out the operations of receiving

deposits, granting credits, providing payment services through accounts for profit

purposes. Income structure of commercial banks is divided into interest income and

non-interest income. If the interest income accounts for the largest proportion in

total revenues, the bank is focusing on traditional activities. If the proportion from

different revenue sources is the same, the bank is diversifying income revenues.

According to theory of diversification, income diversification is an increase in the

proportion of income from non-interest activities and a gradual reduction in the

proportion of interest activities. To measure diversification, this research using

adjustment index HHI. To measure profitability, this research using ROA and ROE.

Because diversification helps prevent liquidity risks, promote profitability and

operational efficiency especially when the scale of operations increases, reinforce

the bank's supervisory role and reduce the cycle of profitability, which seem benefit

to banks. However, some other studies show the opposite result. Non-interest

income increases volatility in bank profits and operational risk, as well as a rise in

exposure to systemic shocks. Many empirical studies in different countries have

conducted this impact in practice. With different regions and different research

stages, the results are also different. Some study concluded that diversification help

increase profit, such as Nguyen (2015), Vo (2015), Lam (2015), Sarah (2010) and

Ramona (2009). On the other hand, some study said that diversification decrease

profit of bank, such as Limei (2017), Vo (2017). Some research study the effect of

diversification on risk-adjusted profit also had different result. Sarah (2010) said

that diversification would rise risk-adjusted profit, while Vo (2015) and Ramona

(2009) said that this effect is negative.

Chapter 3 refers to the model of the impact of income diversification on the

profitability of the bank, explaining the variables, data collection methods and

estimation methods, methods of model verification.

The research data is panel data, it is the combination between time-series data and

cross-sectional data, with 286 observations. The data is collected through financial

statements and annual reports of 26 commercial banks. The study uses FEM or

REM method to estimate (based on Hausman test), then test the model‟s defects

(include multicollinearity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity), overcome the defects

and give the final model for research problems.

Based on previous studies, the research selects independent variables that play an

important role affecting profitability, beside variables of diversification. There are

seven independent variables in the model, include HHI: diversification index; Loan:

scale of credit operations; Deposit: deposit scale; Size: Customer size; Assetgrowth:

asset growth rate; Loangrowth: loan growth; Efficiency: expenses performance.

Chapter 4 explain the results of income diversification to profitability and check the

conditions of the model.

The statistics result describes the statistical variables. The results show that the

average value of ROA is 0.9%, the average value of ROE is 9.8% and the average

value of HHI is 0.3189016, with the lowest value is 0, indicating that the bank

focuses its revenue on a certain activity and other sources of revenue are lost so

there is no contribution to total income and the highest value is 0.7028315,

indicating that the bank diversifies its revenue in a fairly uniform way.

Research results show that diversification index, customer loans and asset growth

all had positive impacts on ROA and ROE with high statistical meaning. Whereas,

customer deposits, expenses efficiency had negative effect on ROA and ROE. Bank

scale variables only affected on ROE and this effect is positive. The study found no

evidence for the effect of the growth variable on the two dependent variables.

The positive impact of income diversification on the profitability of the bank is

consistent with the hypothesis set out in Chapter 3, this result contributes to

reinforce the hypothesis that income diversification is beneficial for banks and in

line with the general development trend of the domestic and world economy.

Chapter 5 summarizes the important research results and propose some solutions to

help bank profit to grow stably, as well as raises the limitations of the research and

makes suggestions for further studies.

Based on the research result, banks should diversify their revenues through other

activities such as service and investment activities. This helps diversify the bank's

revenue, reduce shock in periods of economic crisis and exploit the potential from

new sources of income. Diversification activities should not only be dispersed in

interest and non-interest activities, but the income component within each activity

should also be diversified.

Income from services activities is the most stable in non-interest activities, but it is

not high. In order to exploit better, it is necessary to continuously improve products

and services to provide high quality facilities for customers, increase satisfaction

when experiencing products and contribute to increase the bank's income.

In order to achieve high efficiency in operations, banks also need to manage costs

effectively such as recruiting efficient personnel, avoiding duplication and

redundancy, focusing on management instead of dispersing management, control

general management costs… to improve management efficiency. In addition, it is

necessary to improve management capacity and experience to exploit the potential

of non-interest activities, contributing to increasing total income.

Because there were some restrictions on research space and time, this research had a

few limitations. The research results were just oriented, the proportion of optimal

income sources for banks has not been determined, this thesis has not considered

the risk factor and the research models have not solved the endogenous problem

within variables.

For further studies, accessing data of all or most banks in Vietnam will help to

produce results that are more representative, fully reflect the current situation of the

banking system and suggest practical solutions. Moreover, finding an optimal ratio

of non-interest income in accordance with the bank's actual conditions will provide

a more practical solution for commercial banks' diversification of revenue strategy.

The analysis includes both profit and risk factors that are considered more

comprehensive for bank income diversification. At the same time, the application of

estimation methods to overcome the problems of the model should be applied in the

analysis to find results with higher reliability.