Những yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến giao dịch thẻ tín dụng của Vietcombank trên địa bàn TP. HCM

B(> GIAO DVC VA DAO T,~o

TRUONG D~I HQC MO THANH PHO HO CHi MINH

TRAN MAI HUYEN

NHiJNG YEU TO ANH HUONG DEN GIAO DICH

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THE TIN DUNG CUA VIETCOMBANK

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TREN DIA BAN TP HCM

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Chuyen nganh : Tai Chinh - Ngan hang

Ma s6 chuyen nganh: 60 34 02 01

.... ""' - ' , A ' LUAN . . VAN THAC SY TAI CHINH-NGAN HANG

TRllt1NG O~I HOC Md TP .HCM

Nguai hu6ng d~n khoa h<;>c:

PGS.TS: Nguy~n Minh Ki~u

Thanh ph6 HA Chi Minh, Nam 2014

LOI CAM DOAN

Toi cam doan r~ng lu~n van "Nhfrng nhiin tJ anh huang ain giao dtch the tin dI:tng

Vietcombank ilia ban Thanh phJ HJ Chi Minh" la nghien cuu cua chinh toi.

Ngo~i trir nhfrng tai li~u tham khao duqc trich dftn trong lu~ van nay, toi cam

doan r~ng toan phAn hay nhung phAn nho cua Iu~n van nay chua tung duqc cong b6 ho~c

duqc su dvng dS nh~n b~ng c~p 6 nhfrng nai khac.

Khong c6 san phftm/nghien cuu nao cua nguai khac duqc SU dvng trong lu~n van

nay ma khong duqc trich dftn dung theo quy dinh.

Lu~n van nay chua bao gia duqc n()p dS nh~n b~t ky b~ng c~p nao t~i cac truang

d1;li h9c ho~c ca s6 dao t~o khac.

Tp H6 Chi Minh, ngay 02 thang 12 nam 2014

Nguai thµc hi~n

TrAn Mai Huy~n

..

LOI CAMON

Tran trc,mg cam on PGS.TS Nguy~n Minh Ki€u da t~n tinh hu6ng ddn, h6 trq va

truyen d~t cho toi nhfrng y ki€n khoa hQC ve ly thuy€t cfing nhu kinh nghi~m tri~n khai

th\IC t€ trong qua trinh toi Iva ch9n va tri~n khai de tai "Nhfmg nhan t6 anh huang din

giao djch the tin dz.mg cua Vietcombank tren ilia ban Thanh ph6 H6 Chi Minh".

Tran tr9ng cam on Quy Thfry, Co giang d~y chuong trinh dao t~o Th~c sy Tai

chinh Ngan hang cua Truang d~i hQc Ma TP. H6 Chi Minh da t~n tinh giang d~y, truyen

d~t nhfrng ki€n thuc, kinh nghi~m h€t sue b6 ich d~ toi c6 th~ hoan thanh lu~n van nay.

, Tran tr9ng cam on Khoa Dao t~o Sau D~i hQc, Truang D~i hQc Ma TP. Hb Chi

Minh da d(mg vien va t~o di€u ki~n thu~n lqi cho toi trong su6t qua trinh thvc hi~n lu~n

van nay.

Xin tran tr9ng cam an.

ii

TOM TAT

Trong vai nam tr& l;;ii day, cu(>c dua gianh gi~t thi truang the cua cac Ngan hang

thuong m;;ii Vi~t Nam da va dang di€n ra khong khoan nhuqng. D~ phat tri~n thi phfrn the

theo chi€u r(>ng, nhi€u Ngan hang thuang m;;ii thuang dua ra nhi€u uu dai nhu mi€n phi

phat hanh the, mi€n phi thuang nien nam dfru. V~y cac ngan hang se duqc lqi gi trong

CUQC dua nay neu hon 50% s6 luqng the dang luu hanh (y Vi~t Nam khong h€ phat sinh

giao dich? Do d6, hen c;;inh vi~c khong ngimg m& r(>ng thi phfrn phat hanh the, cac ngan

hang con rftt quan tam t6i vi~c dfiy m;;inh phat tri~n "chi€u sau" trong ho;;it d(>ng kinh

doanh the tin dvng.

· The tin dvng duqc su dvng r(>ng rai 6 Vi~t Nam, song nhfrng nghien cuu gfrn day

chi d€ c~p den nhfrng nhan t6 anh hu&ng den giao dich the ghi nq ma hfru nhu chua d€

c~p t6i the tin dvng. Vietcombank da va vfui dang dfin dfru v€ doanh s6 su dvng the tin

dt,mg tren thi truang Vi~t Nam, tuy nhien, thi phfrn thanh toan cua Vietcombank dang svt

giam nghiem tn;mg va c6 nguy CO' bi cac ngan hang d6i thu vuqt qua. Tru6c th1,rc tr;;ing

d6, nghien cuu nay duqc th1,rc hi~n nh~m tim ra cac yeu t6 tac d(>ng t6i giao dich the tin

d\lng va dua ra cac khuyen nghi nh~m dfiy m;;inh giao dich the tin dvng trong ho;;it d(>ng

kinh doanh the tin dvng cua Vietcombank dia ban Tp H6 chi Minh n6i rieng va

Vietcombank n6i chung.

D€ tai tien hanh nghien cuu dinh luqng b~ng phuang phap h6i quy dµa tren s6

li~u cua 1798 chu the tin dvng cua Vietcombank dia ban Tp H6 chi Minh. Du li~u cua

nghien cuu g6m hai phfrn: du li~u v€ nhan than va nang lµc cua chu the duqc chiet xuftt

thong tin tu Yeu cfiu phat hanh the tin dvng, du li~u v€ d~c di~m giao dich cua chu the

duqc ghi nh~n tu h~ th6ng quan ly the khi chu the su dvng the tin dvng d~ thanh toan ti€n ml ' ' hang h6a ho~c rut tien m~t.

Ket qua nghien ctru cho thfty ha nh6m nhan t6 tac d(>ng den giao dich the tin

dvng la nh6m bien d~c diem nhan khfiu h9c cua chu the (gi6i tinh, tubi); nh6m bien nang

lµc cua chu the (ngh~ nghi~p, thu nh~p, tai san the chftp, s6 luqng the); nh6m bien d~c

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di€m giao djch cua chu the ( h~ s6 ung ti~n m~t, giao djch online ). Tren ca s6 d6, d~ tai

dua r aba nh6m khuy€n nghi ung v6i ba nh6m nhan t6 tren nh~m dfry m<:mh giao d!ch the

tin d\mg g6p ph~n nang cao hi~u qua ho~t d(mg kinh doanh the t~i Vietcombank.

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MUCLUC

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Lai cam doan ............................................................................................................. i

Lai cam an ............................................................................................................... ii

Tom t~t .................................................................................................................... iii

M\lc l\lc ..................................................................................................................... ·v

Danh m\lC hinh ........................................................................................................ ix

Danh m\lc bang bi€u ................................................................................................. x , ,

Danh m\lC tu vi et tat ................................................................................................ xi

CHUONG 1 - Gld I THI:BU .................................................................................... 1

1.1 Di;it v:in d€ ..................................................................................................... 1

1 2 M t." ' " h' · ' h"" uu' 3 . \lC 1eu va cau 01 va ng 1en c .............................................................. .

1.2.lM\lC tieu nghien Clru ................................................................................... 3

1.2.2Cau hoi nghien cuu ..................................................................................... 3

1.3 Ph~m vi va d6i tUQ'l1g nghien cuu ................................................................. 3

1.4 Phuang phap va dfr li~u nghien cuu ............................................................. 4

1.4.1 Quy trinh nghien cuu ................................................................................. 4

1.4.2 Phuang phap nghien ctru ........................................................................... 4

1.4.3 Dfr li~u va ph~m vi nghien cuu .................................................................. 4

1.5 Y nghfa thl,l'C ti€n cua d€ tai .......................................................................... 5

1.6 Ket c:iu d€ tai ................................................................................................ 5

CHUONG 2 - ca so Ly THUYET ...................................................................... 6

2.1 Giao djch the ................................................................................................. 6

2.2 rbng quan v€ the tin d\lng ............................................................................ 7

2 .2 .1 Khai ni~m the tin d\lng ........................................................................... 7

2.2.2 Phan lo~i the tin d\lng .............................................................................. 8

2.2.3 Nghi~p V\l phat hanh va thanh toan the tin d\lng ................................... 10

2.2.3 .1 Chu th€ tham gia vao ho~t d(mg phat hanh va thanh toan the tin d\lng 10

2.2.3.2 Quy trinh phat hanh the tin d\lng .......................................................... 11

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2.2.3.3 Vong deri chu the .................................................................................. 11

2.2.3.4 Quy trinh thanh toan the tin dvng ......................................................... 12

2.3 Cac y€u tb cciu thanh giao dich the tin dvng ............................................... 14

2.3.1 Cac y€u tb cciu thanh giao dich the tin dvng ............................................ 14

2.3 .2Tftm quan tn;mg cua giao dich the tin dvng dbi v6i ho:;tt d('mg kinh doanh

the cua Ngan hang thuong m:;ti .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. . .. . . .. .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 15

2.3 .3 Xac dinh va do luang giao dich the tin dvng trong ho:;tt d('mg kinh doanh

the ............................................................................................................... 16

2.4Cac y€u tb tac d('mg d€n giao dich the tin dvng ........................................... 16

2.4. 1 Nh6m bi€n d~c di~m nhan kh~u hQc cua chu the .................................... 17

2.4.1.1 Gi6i tinh ................................................................................................ 17

2.4.1.2 Tuf>i .................................................................................................... 18

2.4.1.3 Tinh tr:;tng hon nhan .............................................................................. 19

2.4.2Nh6m bi€n nang h,rc cua chu the .............................................................. 19

2.4.2.1 Nghe nghi~p .......................................................................................... 19 .

2.4.2.2 Thu nh~p ............................................................................................... 19

2.4.2.3 H:;tn mire tin dvng ................................................................................. 20

2.4.2.4 Tai san th€ chclp .................................................................................... 20

2.4.2.5 sb Iugng the .......................................................................................... 20

2.4.2.6 Vi tri cong tac ....................................................................................... 21

2.4.3Nh6m bi€n d~c di~m giao dich cua chu the .............................................. 21

2.4.3.lGiao dich online ..................................................................................... 21

2.4.3.2 H~ sf> ung tien m~t ................................................................................ 21

2.5 T6m tit .................................................................................................... 22 ·

CHUONG 3 - PHUONG PHAP NG HIEN CUu ................................................. 23

3 .1 Cac gia thuy€t nghien cuu .......................................................................... 23

3.2 Mo hinh nghien cuu .................................................................................... 25

3.2.1 Xac dinh va do luang bi€n ph\l thut)c .................................................... 26

3.2.2 Xac dinh va do luang bi€n dt)c l~p ........................................................ 27

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3.3 Thu th~p du li~u .......................................................................................... 30

3 .4 Phuang phap XU ly va phan ti ch du li~u ..................................................... 31

3.5 Tom t~t .................................................................................................... 32

CHUONG 4 - PHAN Ti CH KET QUA NG HIEN CUD ...................................... 34

4.1 Phan tich th6ng ke mo ta ............................................................................ 34

4.2 Phan tich khac bi~t giua m()t s6 bi€n s6 dinh tinh va bi€n s6

ph\l thu(>c .................................................................................................... 38

4.2.1 Ki~m dinh T-test cho hai m~u d(>c l~p ..................................................... 38

4.2.2 Phan tich Anova cho nhung bi€n tuba d~c tinh tra ten .......................... 39

4.3 Phan tich tuang quan va da c(>ng tuy€n ...................................................... 40

4.3. l Ki~m dinh S\f tmmg quan ........................................................................ 40

4.3.2 Ki~m dinh da c(>ng tuy€n ......................................................................... 43

4.4 Phan ti ch k€t qua h6i quy ........................................................................... 43

4.4.1 Mo ta k€t qua h6i quy ............................................................................. 43

4.4.2 Phan tich y nghia cac bi€n d(k l~p trong mo hinh .................................. 45

4.5 Tom t~t .................................................................................................... 54

Ud ~ - ' ~ CH NG 5 - KET LUAN VA KIEN NGHJ ....................................................... 56

5.1 K€t lu~n .................................................................................................... 56

5.2 Khuy€n nghi ............................................................................................... 58

5.2.1 Cac khuy€n nghi lien quan t6'i nhan khfru h9c ......................................... 59

5.2.2 Cac khuy€n nghi lien quan t6'i nang lµc chu the ..................................... 60

5.2.3 Cac khuy€n nghi lien quan t6'i d~c di~m giao dich cua chu the .............. 61

5.2.4 Cac khuy€n nghi khac .............................................................................. 61

5 .3 H;;i,n ch€ cua d~ tai. ...................................................................................... 61

PH{) Ll)C ............................................................................................................... 63

Ph\11\lc 1: Th6ng ke mo ta cac bi€n s6 dinh tinh .............................................. 63

Ph\11\lc 2: Th6ng ke mo ta cac bi€n s6 dinh luqng .......................................... 65

Ph\11\lc 3: Phan ti ch khac bi~t gifra m9t s6 bi€n s6 dinh tinh va bi€n s6

ph\l thu(>c .......................................................................................................... 66

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Ph-µ 1-µc 4:Phan tich Anova ............................................................................... 70

Ph-µ 1-µc 5: K€t qua phan ti ch hbi quy mo hinh 1 - S6 lfrn giao di ch ................ 73

Ph-µ 1-µc 6: K€t qua phan tich hbi quy mo hinh 2 - Gia tri giao dich

binh quan .......................................................................................................... 7 5

Ph-µ 1-µc 7: K€t qua phan tich hbi quy mo hinh 3 -Ti~n lai binh quan ............. 76

TAI LI$U THAM KHAO ...................................................................................... 77

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