Sử dụng hàm logic trong nghiên cứu các yếu tố chủ yếu ảnh hưởng đến các quyết định nuôi lợn của hộ nông dân huyện văn giang, tỉnh hưng yên

sö dông hµm logit trong nghiªn cøu c¸c yÕu tè chñ yÕu ¶nh h−ëng ®Õn

quyÕt ®Þnh nu«i lîn cña hé n«ng d©n huyÖn v¨n giang, tØnh h−ng yªn

Determinants of pig rearing in farm households in Van Giang district,

Hung Yen province: Logit function approach

Lª Ngäc H−íng1

SUMMARY

Pig rearing plays an important role in the rural development of Van Giang district, Hung

Yen province. It has created jobs and generated more income for farm households in the

district. Many farm households have been expanding their pig production. However, it was

also found that some have been narrowing down their scale even giving up this activity.

Several important questions regarding pig raising were posed as follows: (i) Why has a farm

household decided rearing pig; (ii) What are the determinants for pig raising in the farm

household; What are the levels of those determinants? and (iii) What are the solutions to

promote pig production. To address these questions a set of research methods has been

applied, i.e. statistics (sampling, descriptive statistics and grouping), participatory rural

appraisal (PRA), and Logit model. Findings from the research show that there are many

determinants affecting to pig rearing in the farm household. Of which good technical

knowledge on pig rearing, low income of non-pig rearing activities, and good animal sheds

are the major determinants. A set of solutions has also been recommended for the

development of pig production in relation to land tenure, loans, agricultural extension, and

promotion of linkages in pig industry.

Key words: Determinants, pig raising, Logit model, technical knowledge, farm income,

farm linkages.

1. §ÆT VÊN §Ò

V¨n Giang lµ mét huyÖn n«ng nghiÖp cña

tØnh H−ng Yªn. HuyÖn cã vÞ trÝ ®Þa lý thuËn

lîi, gi¸p víi Hµ Néi - mét thÞ tr−êng tiªu thô

thÞt lîn ®Çy tiÒm n¨ng. Tuy nhiªn, V¨n Giang

®Êt chËt, ng−êi ®«ng, søc Ðp viÖc lµm vµ ph¸t

triÓn kinh tÕ lµ rÊt lín. Ph¸t triÓn ch¨n nu«i lîn

lµ mét h−íng ®i gãp phÇn khai th¸c thÕ m¹nh

cña vïng, gãp phÇn gi¶i quyÕt viÖc lµm, t¨ng

thu nhËp còng nh− t¨ng møc sèng cho ng−êi

d©n (Phßng Thèng kª huyÖn V¨n Giang

2006). Mét thùc tÕ ®ang ®Æt ra lµ: nhiÒu hé ®J

quyÕt ®Þnh ®Çu t− më réng ch¨n nu«i lîn, bªn

c¹nh ®ã mét sè hé l¹i r¬i vµo thua lç, nî ng©n

hµng ch−a tr¶ ®−îc. NhiÒu khu vùc trong

huyÖn diÔn biÕn vÒ quy m« ®µn lîn lªn xuèng

thÊt th−êng, nhiÒu khi biªn ®é dao ®éng lµ rÊt

lín. HiÖn t−îng nµy x¶y ra ë nhiÒu n¬i lµm

¶nh h−ëng ®Õn cung cÇu thÞt lîn trªn thÞ

tr−êng mµ biÓu hiÖn lµ gi¸ c¶ thÞt lîn biÕn

®éng t−¬ng ®èi lín theo kh«ng gian vµ thêi

gian. Do ®ã, nhiÒu hé ®ang ®Èy m¹nh ch¨n

nu«i lîn, nh−ng ng−îc l¹i nhiÒu hé l¹i kh«ng

nu«i lîn hoÆc bá nu«i lîn. Nghiªn cøu nµy

nh»m x¸c ®Þnh nh÷ng yÕu tè ¶nh h−ëng chñ

yÕu ®Õn quyÕt ®Þnh nu«i lîn cña hé, còng nh−

møc ®é ¶nh h−ëng cña tõng yÕu tè, tõ ®ã cã

nh÷ng gi¶i ph¸p ®Ó thóc ®Èy ph¸t triÓn ch¨n

nu«i lîn ë V¨n Giang.

2. PH¦¥NG PH¸P NGHI£N CøU

Ph−¬ng ph¸p thèng kª: Ph−¬ng ph¸p

nµy ®−îc vËn dông trong chän ®iÓm nghiªn

cøu, ph©n tæ thèng kª c¸c n«ng hé, lùa chän

1 Khoa Kinh tế & PTNT, ðại học Nông nghiệp I- Hà Nội.