Một số phân tích lượng hoá sự thay đổi về nhu cầu lao động

MOT SO PHAN TICH LLfONG HOA

SU THAY DOI VE NHU CAU LAO DONG

BUI TRINH, BUI CAN, BUI QUOC

Tai moi mpt quoc gia, viec

lam vd dam bdo an sinh xa

hpi luon la nhflng nhu ciu

thiet yeu, thu hut dfldc sfl quan tam

chu y eua todn xa hdi va cdc nha

nghien cflu. Nhieu nghien cflu ve

mdi quan he gifla sdn xua't va lao

dpng da dfldc tien hanh, trong dd,

mpt trong nhflng eong eu phdn tfeh

djnh Ifldng hieu qud Id Bdng can

ddi lien nganh I/O (hay con gpi Id

bdng I/O hoac mo hinh I/O).

Viee xay dflng bdng I/O bat

nguon tfl y tfldng cua Marx. Trong

eudn "Tfl bdn", Marx da tim ra

mdi quan he trflc tiep theo quy

luat ky thudt gifla ede yeu td tham

gia vao qud trinh sdn xud't. Tfl

tfldng nay eua ong sau dd dfldc

Wassily Leontief (doat gidi Nobel

kinh te nam (1973) phdt trie'n

bang cdch todn hpc hda todn dien

quan he cung - eau trong toan bd

nen kinh te. W. Leontief da dfla ra

gid djnh ddn gidn hda Id: mdi

edng nghe sdn xud't Id mpt mdi

quan he tuyen tfnh gifla sd ifldng

sdn pha'm dfldc sdn xua't ra va cdc

sdn pha'm vdt chat, djch vu dfldc

dung lam ehi phf dau vao. Mdi

lien he nay dfldc bieu di§n bdi

mdt he thdng ham tuyen tfnh vdi

nhflng he sd dfldc quyet djnh bdi

fatijbra^^BJMaij^igfe^ia/a^ialaaji'iaJa^jaaiaaaa^ia^^

In all countries, employment and social security are always essen￾tial needs, that attract concerns of the whole society, especially

researchers. A number of studies on relations between production and

employment have been conducted, of which I/O table (or I/O model)

is one of effective quantitative analysis tools.

Using 1/0 table of 2000, 2005 and 2007, author team analyzes,

assesses changes in labour structure over several periods by calculat￾ing economic spillover coefficient and labour spillover coefficient. At

the same time, author team tries to quantify spillover effect of total final

demand including final consumption, accumulation, export on labour

and income. Based on such analyses, several recommendations are

made to policymakers in considering and deciding key industries to be

developed.

la'aafaaBEfgJgs^^jgia^tjfe^iiBtaBgigfiESra?^^

quy trinh eong nghe. Bang I/O dau tien dfldc W. Leontief lap vdo nam

1936 cho nen kinh te Hoa Ky, dfla tren tinh hinh kinh te cdc nam 1919

va 1929. Cong trinh nghien cflu nay da dfldc xud't bdn nam 1941 vdi

ten gpi "Cd'u true cua nen kinh te Hoa Ky".

Ndm 1905, Pareto dfla ra nhan xet: "Trong mpt nen kinh te, mdi

hdnh vi, moi viee Idm cua tflng cd nhan deu anh hfldng mpt cdch vo

tinh hodc cd chu djnh den ldi fch cua nhflng cd nhdn khde". Tuy nhien,

tai thdi diem dd, chfla mpt phfldng phdp djnh Ifldng ndo cd the tfnh

dfldc dnh hfldng qua lai bat nguon tfl nhflng thay ddi gay nen bdi mpt

hodc nhieu tdc nhan trong hoac ngodi mot nen kinh te. Phdi den nam

1936, khi nhflng bdng I/O dau tien ra ddi, cdc nhd nghien cflu mdi thfle

hien dfldc dieu nay. Sd dung mo hinh 1/0, ngfldi ta bat dau gan ket dfldc

nhflng eon sd tho'ng ke, nhflng dfl lieu vdi nhflng phan tich sau sac hdn

dfla tren ly thuyet kinh te va ke tfl dd da cd nhflng phdn tfeh sdu sac vd

tdng the ve todn nen kinh te.

Bdi viet dfldi day se dfla ra mpt sd phdn tfeh va so sdnh gifla sfl thay

ddi ve cd'u true kinh te vd thay ddi ve ca'u true lao dpng dfla tren nhu

cau ve sdn Ifldng va nhu cau ve lao dpng theo 112 ngdnh, sd dung bdng

1/0 nam 2000 va nam 2005. Nhom tdc gid cd gang Ifldng hoa dnh

So' 57 (9.2010) THONG TIN S, DU BAO KINH TE - XA HDI 27