Dự báo giá vàng thế giới tháng 4/2011

PHA N TICH & DLJ BA O KIN H T E

D U BA O GI A VAN G TH E Gl6 l

THAN G 4/201 1

NGUYEN THj BICH HOA, NGUYEN HONG QUAN vd cpng sU

Chi nhanh tai Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh

Trung tam Thdng tin va Du bao kinh te - xd hdi qudc gia

1. Nhiing dien bien chfnh cua

thj trudng vang the gi6i trong

thang 2 va dau thang 3/2011

Sau khi trai qua thang giam gia

manh (thang 1/2011 la thang gia

vang giam manh nhat ke td thang

01/2010), gia vang the gidi trong

thang 2 da tang trd lai vdi 4 tuan

tang lien tiep va tang 5,8% ve gia

tri (so sanh gia md cda va gia

ddng cda cua thang), danh dau

thang tang manh nhat ke td thang

1 1/2009. Trong thang 2, gia vang

cd bien dd giao dich kha rdng, td

1.325-1.41 8 USD/ounce. Khoi

lddng giao dich trong thang 2 thap

hdn nhieu so vdi nhdng thang

trddc dd, cho tha'y gidi dau td

dang kha than trong va chi giao

djch trong ngan han, dac biet

trong bd'i canh thi trddng vang the

gidi bj anh hddng bdi yeu td' chfnh

trj kha rd net. Cung trong thang 2,

gia ca nhieu hang hda va cac kim

loai quy tang kha manh: gia dau

tang 5,4%, gia bac tang

20,66%... Nguyen nhan khien

cac hang hda deu tang gia chu

yeu la do ye'u to chfnh trj khi cang

thang bung nd d Trung Ddng va

Bac Phi khien cac nha dau td lo

ling va tim den nhdng tai san

Over recent months, world gold price experienced sharp fluctua￾tions. Notably, world gold market remarked new record of 1,444.50 USD

per ounce on 7th of March. The increase of gold price showed that

investors still wanted to invest into gold due to much macro risks exist￾ed in the international market. Some reasons underlying complex fluc￾tuation of world gold price in the past days were: political instability in

Middle East and North Africa; unexpected rise of gold consumption

demand in China after New Lunar year holidays; difficulties in European

economies; inflation upward trend; volatility in petroleum and stock

markets...

In April, world gold market continues to be supported by following

factors: political instability; buying power is expected to rise; lower inter￾est rates encourage investor to invest info real assets like gold; risks of

financial shocks; Japan economy needs time to recover... Nevertheless,

there exists more and more economic information that take team

authors to the forecasts of downward adjustment of gold price in April.

Meanwhile, using technical analyses, world gold price in April would

heavily depend on closing price of March.

dddc coi la "ham tru an" an toan. Ben canh dd, lam phat va van de nd

cdng cua cac qud'c gia cung anh hddng kha Idn den thj trddng the gidi.

Viec ddng USD trong thang 2 giam 1 % ve gia tri, danh da'u thang giam

gia thd 3 lien tiep cung hd trd day gia vang lien tuc tiep can cac mdc

cao.

Trong nhdng ngay dau thang 3, thj trddng vang the gidi cd nhieu bien

ddng manh: gia vang giao ngay trong nhdng phien giao dich dau thang

3 da xac lap mdc ky luc mdi 1.444,50 USD/ounce vao ngay 07/03/201 1,

cao hdn 1 3 USD so vdi ky luc cua giai doan trddc dd (1.431 USD/ounce,

ngay 07/12/2010). Viec gia vang tang cho thay gidi dau td vin mudn dau

tdvao vang vi hien cd qua nhieu rui ro vT md tren thj trddng.

Dddi day la nhdrjg nguyen nhan chu yeu khien gia vang the gidi

diln bien phdc tap trong thdi gian qua:

- Bat dn chinh trj lien tuc nd ra d Trung Ddng va BSc Phi nhu Ixaren,

Iran, rdi td Tuynidi lan sang Ai Cap, sang Libi, Baranh, Yemen... da day

gia vang lien tuc leo thang.trong thdi gian gan day;

16 THONG TIN & DLf BAD KINH TE • XA HOI So 63 (3.2011)