Dự báo giá vàng thế giới tháng 12/2010

PHAN TICH & DU BAO KINH TE

Dl/ Bi.€ ei/4 VANG THE ei^i

TH/£N G 12/2C1C

NGUYE N TH! BICH HOA, NGUYE N HONG QUA N

Chi nhdnti fql Thdnh phd' Ho Chi Minh

Trung tdm Thdng fin vd D g bdo kinh te - xd hqi quoc gia

I. Nhu'ng dien bien chmh cua

thj trgdng vang the gidi thang 10

va dau thang 11/201 0

Trong thang 10, gia vang tiep

tuc tang manh , cu the la: gia

vang giao ngay chdt phien giao

djch ngay 29/10 tren san Comex

cua Sd giao djch Ne w York ddn g

d mdc 1.357,6 USD/ounce, tang

gan 50 USD so vdi gia m d cda

cua thang (1.308 USD/ounce) va

danh da'u thang tang thd 3 lien

tiep cua gia vang. Trong thang

10, vang dao dgng trong bien dp

ta 1.305,5-1.386,6 USD/ounce.

N h a vay, trong thang 10, vang

da tang gia 3,7%, trong khi USD

mat gia 1,9% so vdi rd' 6 dong

tien chu chd't. Tfnh td dau nam ,

gia vang da tang 24 % va dang

hadng tdi nam tang gia th d 10

Men tuc.

Thj tradng vang the gidi dau

thang 11 da cd khdng ft "ba't

ngd". Sau khi cd nhdn g phie n

dieu chinh nhe trong 3 ngay di u

thang, trong phien giao djc h dau

tuan 08/11 , thi tradng van g da

chao dad khi gia van g nhanh

chdng vUdt ngadng tam ly vdn g

chac 1.400 USD/ounce va tiep

tuc lap ky luc 1.410 USD/ounce,

:riiiEraia'aaaaiaaaiaEiaaaiiEigiarc'Bri'aei^^

Recently, world gold prices underwent sharp fluctuations: it continu￾ously hit new record high in October and was subjected to extraordinary

ups and downs in the beginning days of November. Sharp increases in

world gold price recently were attributed fo unfavorable developments

of the world economy; investors placed a bet on buying debts of FED,

that put USD in depreciation risk; public debt of some European coun￾tries fended to be worse.

In December, there are many fundamental information for further

increases of world gold price, such as: instability of economic develop￾ment programs and policies of some countries; many central banks

intensify their buy in for strategic reserves; gold consumption demands of

Asia continue to rise... Nevertheless, December can also see world gold

price adjustment due to positive signs in the international economy and

long lasting holidays in this month.

Using technical analyses, world gold price in December 2010 is like￾ly fo rise fo 1,456 - 1,475 USD per oz, but it then can drop to 1,270 - 1,228

USD per oz, especially once closing price of November is lower or equal

to opening price of 1,363,71 USD per oz.

bat chap viec don g USD dang hoi phuc . Die u nay dadc ly giai la

do cac nha dau ta dang lo ngai tin h hin h np cdng tai cac nadc chau

A u , dien hinh la Aile n khi nd cdn g cua nUdc nay dang cd nguy cd

vapt tam kie m scat. Cung trong phie n giao djc h dau tuan , quy giao

djch vang Idn nha't the gidi SPDR Gol d Trust da mua vao 2,44 tan

vang .

Tuy nhien, trong nhdng ngay gan day, trade hang loat thdng tin tot

nhd: thj tradng lao dpng cd dau hieu tfch cdc, can can thddng mai va

canh bao that nghiep cua M y cd tin hieu kha quan, dong USD cd xu

hadng hoi phuc; cac cam ket khong de xay ra chie'n tranh tien te tai

Hdi nghj Thugng dinh G20 ; Chfnh phu Trung Qud'c se nang lai suat va

ap dung hang loat cac bien phap de dd'i phd vdi nguy cd lam phat cao;

ap Igc ban chd't Idi d mile gia cao... da khien vang chju ap lac giam

gia manh . Chi trong 3 phien ngay 1 2, 1 5 va 16/11 , gia vang da giam

khoang 70 USD/ounce, nhUng ngay sau dd da phuc hoi vdi mdc tang

khoSng 26 USD/ounce.

THONG TIN S. DLf BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 59 (11.2010)