Dự báo giá vàng thế giới năm 2011

YtOVGBU&C TBOJVG TIL IC H THUU

I. Thj trirdng vang the gidi

nam 2010: Nam tang gia an

tiffing

Nam 2010 dagc xem nha la

"nam vang" cua kim loai quy va

hang hda. Theo so lieu thd'ng

ke, gia vang da tang gan 30%

(nam 2010, gia md cda la

1.096,75 USD/ounce va gia

ddng cda la 1.421 USD/ounce);

gia bac tang 84%, palladium

tang 96%, platinum tang 21%,

dong tang 33% va dau thd tang

1 5%.

Viec gia vang tang trong nam

2010 da danh da'u mdt thap ky

tang gia lien tiep cua vang, td

mdc 251 USD/ounce nam 2001

len mQc ky luc 1.431 USD/ounce

ddpc xac lap vao ngay

07/12/2010. Thdi gian qua, vang

dPdc danh gia la mdt loai tien te

thay the va ddng vai trd la "ham

tru an an loan" trade nhQng bat dn

khdng iQdng trade cua thi trUdng

tai chinh qudc te.

Cac mdc quan trpng cua thi

trudng vang the gidi nam 201 0 la:

- Ngay 05/02/2010: gia vang

dat mQc tha'p nhat trong nam

11.044,45 USD/ounce), md ra da

tang gia cua vang.

- Ngay 14/05/2010: vang tang

gia len mQc 1.249 USD/ounce,

xac lap mdt mQc ky luc mdi.

- Ngay 21/06/2010: vang tang

gia len mQc 1.265 USD/ounce,

tiep tuc xac lap vung dinh mdi.

- Ngay 28/07/2010: vang giao

dich d mQc 1.156,70 USD/ounce,

danh da'u mQc hd tro quan trong

thQ hai trong nim. Nhu cau mua

tang cao, trong khi ddng USD truqt

gia da hd tra rat manh cho gia

vang.

- Ngay 09/11/2010: vang giao

dich a mQc gia ky Ipc mdi 1.424

D U BA O GI A VAN G TH E Gld l

N A M 201 1

NGUYEN THj BICH HOA, NGUYEN HONG QUAN vd cong sU

Chi nhanh tai Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh

Trung tdm Thdng tin vd DU bdo kinh te - xd hdi guoc gia

In 2010, world gold price rose by approximately 30%, which marked

a decade long of continual rise. During recent years, gold has been seen

as alternative currency and safe haven for unexpected volatile interna￾tional financial market. Underlying reasons of sharp changes in world

gold market in 2010 are: USD depreciation; public debt in Europe; sharp

increase in gold demands of India and China; political instability in

Korean peninsula.

In 2011, those factors that drove up world gold price in 2010 are

expected to continue to affect world gold market. In addition, other fac￾tors should be taken into account include: risk of double crisis in devel￾oped economies; natural disasters... But there still exist factors that

reduce gold price such as: signs of US economic recovery; global econ￾omy continues its rebound momentum; gold supply is higher. Based on

assessment of above factors and technical analyses, 2011 is forecasted

to be a year of downward adjustment of gold price and the price will

fluctuate within range of 1,425 - 1,145 USD/ounce.

USD/ounce. Thi trUdng vang sdi sue khien ca the gidi "bat ngd" vdi gia

vang, "Chien tranh tien te" bung phat.

- Ngay 07/12/2010: gia vang xac lap mQc ky luc moi thdi dai, dat

1.430,75 USD/ounce.

- Ngay 31/12/2010: vang ddng cda d mQc gia 1.421 USD/ounce,

danh dau nam thQ 10 tang lien tiep cua gia vang.

Sau khi tao sdng ldn vao thang 11/2009, thi trudng vang the gidi

tram ling trong mdt thdi gian kha dii. Tuy nhien, bQdc sang nim 2010,

bi't chi'p sp lo ngai cua ngQdi din v i gidi dau tU tren toin the gidi, gii

ving lien tuc "nhiy mua", die biet l i vio nda cudi nam 2010 vdi hing

loat yeu to hd trp, tao ra cic dat sdng tang lien tuc va phi vo nhieu ky

luc ve gii. DPdi diy la mpt sd nguyen nhan din den sp bien ddng

manh cua gii ving trong nim 2010:

- Dong USD giam gia. Trong nim 2010, nen kinh te ldn nha't the

gidi dUng trudc nguy co cua cudc khung hoing kep. Theo nhieu chuyen

gia kinh te, nen kinh te My van ri't bat dn, hing loat gdi hd trp dupe

dUa ra nhim ndi long dinh lupng, dn dinh kinh te, dien hinh l i ngay

03/11/201 0, Cue Dp trQ lien bang My (FED) quyet dinh bom them 600

So'61+62 (1.2011) THONG TIN & DO BAO KINH TE - XA HOI 45