Ứng dụng mô hình cảnh báo khủng hoảng tiền tệ ở Việt Nam

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KIEM SOAT LAM PHAT NA M 20II :

NHiN Ttr THAT BAI CUA NAM 2010

PGS. TS. Nguyin Van Cong

Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan

Ben canh nhdng thanh cong da dat duac, viec de lam phat nam 2010 tang len 2 con

so duac^coi nhu mot that bai trong dieu hdnh cOa Chinh phd. Nhin nhan that bai nay mot

each tharig than va khach quan, de rut ra nhdng bai hoc thuc tela dieu vo cung can thiet

nham kiem soat lam phat thanh cong trong nam 2011. Bai viet nay se chira cac nguyen

nhan lam cho lam phat bung len trong nam 2010, td do dua ra cac giai phap chdng lam

phat hdu hieu han cho nam 2011.

1 . Dien bie'n lam phat

nam 2010

Sau nam 2009 tUdng dd'i

tram lang, lam phat da biing

len ngay tU nhifng thang dau

nam 2010. Lam phat cd phan

dju lai trong nhifng thang giUa

nam rdi lai tang tdc vao cudi

nam. Chiing ta thay dilu nay

qua ca hai each tfnh lam phat:

(i) phan tram tang len ciia CPI

so vdi thang trudc; va (ii) phan

tram tang len ciia CPI so vdi

ciing ky nam trudc (Xem hinh

1). Ca nam 2010 ghi nhan ty le

lam phat la 11,75%. Khac vdi

thdng le, gia nhdm hang an va

djch vu an udng khdng cdn

tang cao nha't va ddng vai trd

dan dat thj trudng (tinh binh

quan chi giai thi'ch dUdc

46,53% su gia tang ciia CPI

nam 2010^). Nam 2010 nhdm

cd gia ca tang cao nha't la giao

due (gan 20%), sau dd mdi

din nhdm hang an va dich vu

an udng (16,18%). Cac nhdm

khac nhin chung cung cd mdc

gia tang khdng khac qua xa so

vdi, mat bang gia chung. Cu

the, gia nhdm nha d- vat lieu

xay dung tang 15,74%; gia

nhdm dd udng va thudc la

tang 9,57%; gia nhdm may

mac, mu, nd,n, giay dep tang

8,38%,... Chi,cd mdt ngoai le

nhung da phd biln nhieu ham

qua la nhdm bUu chinh viln

thdng cd mdc gia giam gan

6% trong nam 2010.

Nhu vay, mdt lan nifa, lam

phat lai vupt ngoai tam kiem

spat bat chap cac cam kit va

nd luc ciia Chi'nh phii. Theo,

quan diem ca nhan, day cd the

, dUdc coi la mdt that bai trong

dilu hanh ciiathfnh phii. That

bai nay cd the dupc xem xet

tren cac phUdng diln chu ylu

sau:

Thd nhat, lam phat ciia nam

2010 da vupt xa cac muc tieu

d l ra trude dd. Dau nani 20jl 0

Qud'c hdi de ra muc tieu kiem

seat lam phat dudi 7%. Sau

dd, trudc sdc ep lam phat tang

len, muc tieu d§ dupc dieu

chinh lln 8%. TU thang 9 nam

2010, trudc ap lUc lam phat

tang tdc, Chinh phii vin cam

ket se kiem soat dupc tinh

hinh. Tuy nhien, thUc t l da

dien ra khdng gidng nhu ky

vpng va dilu nay cd the tao ra

mdt tiln le xau trong phan drig

CLia ngudi dan trudc cac quylt

sach ciia Chi'nh phii.

Thd hai, dilu de nhan thay

la kit,qua ciia nam 2010 k,hd

cd th i dupc coi la mdt diem

sang khi so sanh vdi thinh tuu

kinh t l vT md dat dUdc gi'ai

doan 2000- 2010.'Qua ia nam

2010, nin kinh te Viet Nam da

dan phuc hdi va tahg trudng

khdi sac hdn so vdi nam 2009.

Tuy nhien, dilu quan trpng la

can phai tang trUdng hhanh

mdt each bin vUng. Chung ta

khdng th i chap nhan tang

trudng tam thdi cao bang moi

gia. Ca ly thuylt va thuc tien

d i u c,ho thay nen kinh t l chi

cd the tang trudng nhanh mdt

each ben vifng trong rridt mdi

trudng kinh te vT md oh dinh,

tro,ng dd lam phat phai dupc

kiem soat d mdc hpf) ly. Nam

2010 chiing ta da phai hy sinh

Hinh 1: Dien bien lam phat hang thang nam 2010

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So lieu: Tong cue Thdng ke

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