Tác động từ gói "kích cầu" đối với kinh tế Việt Nam

TAICHINHVIMO So 7(72)72009

T^c dOng tQ g6i "kich c^u"

f)€l V ^ riNU TE VIET NAM • + PHAM TH!THUHA(* )

T/7J / kinh te the gidi rdi vio tinh trang khdng hoang, Chinh phu cic nUdc deu tim moi bien phip do!

I C phd de nhanh ehdng vuqit qua nhdng khd khan, cd gang hgn che tac dgng xau tdi nen kirih te.

-*• ^tl/lgt trong nhdng bign phip dU(?e nhieu nUde ip dung li sd dgng ngudn tii chinh edng de kich

thieh kinh te, tro giup cac doanh nghigp vi ngUdi dan, han che tdi da nhdng hgu qua xau tdi van de an

sinh xa hdi. Mic du li nude cd nen kinh te chua phit trien, nguon tii chinh cdng chua that doi dao,

nhung Chinh phu vin quyet dinh ehi 7 ty USD vio viec "cdu trd" nhim binh dn nen kinh te nho be trudc

nhQng dien bien xau cda khdng hoang kinh tetoin ciu. Tuy nhien viec dung dong tien vio dau ded^t

dUde hieu qua nhu mong mudn lai li dieu cin phai bin.

Cac nudc phat trien rat can trpng

vdi mdi ddng tien dau ty ciia he khi

kinh te bien dpng xau, hudng hd nyOc

ngheo nhu Viet Nam, bOn nQa Igi la

nuOc trinh dp quan ly vdn diu tU chua

cac, tieu eye treng viec sif dyng ddng

tien ccng cung khcng it. Neu viec chi

tieu 7 ty USD nay khcng mang Igi

hieu qua nhy meng mudn thi that sy

cd tgi vdi dan, cd tdi vdi qude gia dan

tpc, bdi vi nd Igi cang lam tdng

khoang each giQa Viet Nam vdi cae

nuOc cd nen kinh te phdt then.

Trudc khi cd dugc giai phap phii hgp

hay danh gia mpt dch khdch quan

tinh trgng kinh tl Viet Nam hi§n nay,

sau dc hay nhin xem the giOi ngudi ta

dung tien ciru trg nhU the nae?

Anh hUdng ciia suy thoai kinh te

toan cau den kinh te Viet Nam

Suy thPdi kinh te tean cau anh

hudng tryc tilp tdi then vpng xuat

khau ciia Vi§t Nam vdi dy dodn tdc

dp tang trudng kim nggch xuit khau

chf cdn bang mpt nira SP vdi ndm

2008. Kha nang thu hut vdn dau tu

tryc tiep va gian tiep nUOc ngoai se

khe khan hon rat nhieu. Thj trUdng

trpng nudc cung dugc dy bao cham

Igi do sUc mua ciia ngudi tieu dung

khe CO the cai thien so vdi nam 2008,

vl^thu nhap thyc te ciia ngudi dan bj

giam siit bdi Igm phat. Hang Ipgt

doanh nghiep, dac biet la cac deanh

nghiep nho va vUa bi dinh tre de cau

tieu diing giam siit va vap phai nhQng

khO khan tU chfnh sach tien te thit

chat, tu thj trudng chUng khcan va thj

trudng bat dgng san, Nguy cO Igm

(') Bp Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng

2 0 Tap chi nghien ciiu tai chinh he' toan

phat van ludn hnh rap, nguy eO thit

nghiep cao, vi vdy ehdng thit nghiep,

duy th va tgo them cdng an viec lam

trong thdi dilm hien nay phai trd

thdnh trpng tdm ciia gdi cUu trg.

Vl CO bin, hau qua theo dudi tdng

trudng kinh te cao dUa cbii yeu vao

ode yeu td chieu rong tU nhQng ndm

trudc ddy, den khi ed mdt eu buyeh

tu suy thodi kinh t l thi gidi da bde Ig

khd ro su ylu k6m trfen mpi phUOng

di$n, kinh t l nude nhd bj chao dao

tnidc con sdng eiia kinh t l todn ciu.

Noi lo ve Igm phdt, viee Idm, nhOng

mat tieu cue eua cudc sdng dugc djp

bung nd, tgo n§n mdt sU bit dn vd

tac dong rit xiu tdi vin de an sinh xa

hpi. Viet Nam se vUa phai ddi phd vdi

tdc dpng tU b§n ngpdi ciia khiing

being kinh t l thi gidi, vUa phai khic

phyc hdu qua cua cac van de ben

treng, dieu ndy khdng he dOn gian,

nlu khdng d n trong thi se sa vdo

vdng luan quan khdng cd dudng ra.

Bdi le, tang chi tieu chi'nh phit cho

myc tieu kich ciu trong dieu ki§n

nin kinh t l ylu se tdc dpng tdng Igm

phdt vd gia tdng ng nude ngodi, tdng

Igm phdt se tdc ddng xiu tdi tidu

dung, ti§u diing suy giam se tdc

dgng xiu tdi dau tu,... nen kinh t l roi

vao tinh trgng giim phdt; Chlnh phii

Igi phii tdng chi tieu dl ddi phd vdi

giam phdt.

Kinh nghi?m mpt so ni/dc trong

vi?c sir dyng goi ci^u tri?

Mdt sd nudc tr&n the gidi da tuyen

bd k l hogch kfch thfch kinh te kha

Idn, tuy nhien chi tilt thuc hien cd

khdc nhau. My va Anh chii ylu

hudng tdi cUu trg true tiep cho khu

vuc tai chi'nh de he thdng tai chinh

khdng bj syp dd, vi khiing hoing bit

ngudn tU ctii'nb nOi nay, ho cUu tro

nham sira sai trong viec dilu hdnh vT

md trUde dd (duy tri lai suit thap va

tang trudng tin dyng de ddi, nhit la

tin dyng bat dgng san), Tdng gdi cUu

trg ciia My se Ien tdi 7000 ty USD.

Ngay 9/11/2008 Chfnh phii Trung

Quoc da tuyen bd mgt ke hogch kfch

thich kinh t l trj gia 4000 ty NDT

(tuong duong vdi 586 ty USD), tUOng

duong vdi 1/5 GDP ciia nUdc nay

trong nam 2007, viec sir dyng se

dugc keo dai den nam 2010, theo 10

nhdm giai phap: thuc diy viec xay

dung cdc cong trinh nhd b mang tinh

phue lgi; xay dyng cO sd hg tang

ndng thon; xdy dung co sd hg tang

Idn nhu dudng sat, duOng bo, mang

ludi dien...; thuc day cdc ngdnh y te,

van hda, gido dye... Trung Quoc sif

dyng 45% ciia tong gdi kfch thfch

hudng tdi xdy dung cO sd hg ting.

Thue rg, trong 4000 ty NDT Trung

Qude tuyen bd thi da ed 1000 ty NDT

d l khic phyc thien tai (ehii yeu I&

dgng dat 6 TU Xuyen), gdi kfch thich

"rdng" chf la 3000 ty NDT, trong do

1800 ty NDT la cho xay dung eO ban

theo kieu diu tu edng truyin thdng,

gin 700 ty NDT Id chi cho khu vyc

ndng thdn. Vi vdy, thue chit gdi kich

thich chf bang met nira SP vOi tuydn

bd sau khi trU di phin Trung Quoc

van phai chi tieu nlu khong cd suy

thoai kinh tl . Cd le tuyen bd gdi kich

thich lOn ciia Chi'nh phii Trung Quoc

chii ylu nham tang hieu qui tam ly,

Chi'nh sach trp gid, kich ciu nOng

then ciia Trung Qude duge thit