Thị trường tài chính Việt Nam: Kỳ vọng năm mới

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Thi truang tai chinh Viet Nam:

Ky vong nam mdi

PGS.. TS. NGUYEN THI MUI - ThS. TRINH THANH HUYEN

Tnrcrng Bao tao va Phat then nguon nhan li/c, VietinBank

Khimg hodng tdi chinh todn cdu diin ra diing liic Viet Nam

viia mdi bdt ddu hdi nhdp sdu vdo nen kinh tequdc te. Thj

trudng tdi chinh Viet Nam tuy khdng chiu tdc ddng mqnh

nhung cUng bf chao ddo, da bde Id rd nhitng yeu kem vd

nhiing thdch thuc phdi ddi mat trong giai doqn tdi.

Khdi qudt thi trudng

tdi chinh Viet Nam

ndm 200 9

The gidi da bude sang nam

mdi vdi nhieu van de phai ti^p

tue xii ly d ea tim vi md va vi md.

Cudi nam 2009, Chii tich Cue Du

tiii lign bang My (Fed) Ben

Bemanke da thira nhan, tuy nen

kinh te dau tau the gidi khdng bi

roi vao cudc suy thoai kep nhung

vin cdn qua sdm de khing dinh

kinh te My da ra khdi day ciia

khiing hoang. Khu vuc Euro tuy

cd da'u hieu khdi sic nhung vin

chua dli de Ngan hang Trung

uong ehau Au (ECB) thay ddi

miic lai suit coban 1%/nam. Su

chiing lai ciia dat nudc "mat tidi

mpc" do ddng Ygn manh va gia

tigu dimg lien tue sut giam ciing

bude Nhat Ban phai dua ra gdi

kich thich kinh te Hep theo vao

., ngay 8/12/2009 len tdi 24.400 ty

•i\ . ygn - khoing 274 ty USD.

V" Tai Viet Nam, da suy

'-i- -•'thoai da dupc ngan chan

t il ^-quy n/2009 va nen

kinh tg' da cd sir

but pha vdi ti le tang GDP ca

nam la 5^2%. Tuy miic tang nay

thap nhat tiong 10 nam qua

nhung ne'u dat tiong bdi canh

thg' gidi toan eiu dang suy thoai

thi day lai la su cd ging rit ldn

ciia Chinh phii, ciia eac thanh

phin kinh te va cua mdi ngudi

dan Viet Nam. Thi trudng ehiing

khoan Viet Nam (TTCK) ciing cd

tdc dp tang trudng rat an tupng

vdi tdng gia tii vdn hda thi

trudng khoang 669.000 ty ddng,

tuong duong vdi 55% GDP, tang

gin gap 3 lin so vdi cudi nam

2008. Chi sd VN-Index da tang

ban 150% so vdi cudi nam 2008.

Song, xet mdt each toan dien

thi thi trudng tai chinh Viet Nam

(TTTC) vi n cdn nhigu bat 6n.

TTCK tuy da khdi sic nhung vin

tigm an nhieu nii ro, ma dien

hinh la tinh tiang bien ddng gia

qua that thudng. Dign bien gia

vang va ngoai te khig'n khdng it

nha di u tu nhd va vita met mdi

bdi nhiing miic gia ngoai siic

tudng tupng. Viet Nam da cd

thang du thuang mai nhiing

thang di u nam do su sut giam

manh ciia nhap khau nhung khi

nhu cau thucmg mai ndi dia dupc

phuc hdi, can can thuang mai

ciia Viet Nam da tham hut tid

lai. Tin dung tang trudng cao so

vdi tdc dp tang GDP, ty gia hdi

doai tign thi trudng ludn d miic

kich tiin. Siic ep lam phat vao

nhiing thang cudi nam gia tang

da bude Ngan hang Nha nudc

(NHNN) phii dua ra mdt sdbien

phap nhim kiem soat chat che

tin dung tigu ddng, cho vay

chiing khoan va bat ddng sin,

ciing nhu giam ty le tdi da cua

ngudn vdn ngin ban dupc sii

dung cho vay tiung va dai ban

ddi vdi timg td ehiie tin dung

(TCTD), de mdt mat phat di tin

hieu kiem che tdc dp tang trudng

tin dung ciia cac TCTD dim bao

an toan thanh khoan, mat khac

kiem che khdi lupng tien cung

ling vao luu thdng.

Thi trw&ng tien te

Nam 2009 dupc coi la mpt

nam cd nhieu bien dpng ddi vdi

thi trudng tien te (TTTT). Lai suat

ca ban dupc giii kha lau d miic

7% de kich eau nhung ciing

khdng giam dupc nhiing bien

ddng niy. Lai suit va ty gia Ugn

tue cd dau hieu bat thudng.

Khdng it thdi diem, ty gia tien thi

trudng tu do cd dd vgnh Idn so

vdi thi trudng chinh thiic, khi&i

cho tinh tiang ddla hda nen kinh

t^ cang tang, tao dieu kign cho

boat ddng gam giii, di u ca, liing

doan thi tiudng, tac ddng xiu

d6i thi trudng ngoai hdi. Vi vay,

NHNN da phai Uen ket vdi mdt

sd bd, nganh, UBND TP Ha Ndi,

Tp. HCM tang cudng ki^m soat

boat dpng mua ban ngpai te,

vang tign thi trudng tu do. Day

dupc cpi la bign phap hanh chinh

Tii Chinh THANQ 1/2010