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Unemployment Fluctuations and

Stabilization Policies

Zeuthen Lecture Book Series

Karl Gunnar Persson, editor

Modeling Bounded Rationality

Ariel Rubinstein

Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series

Michael P. Clements and David E. Hendry

Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy

Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini

Wage Dispersion: Why are Similar Workers Paid Differently?

Dale T. Mortensen

Competition and Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Philippe Aghion and Rachel Griffith

Product Variety and the Gains from International Trade

Robert C. Feenstra

Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies:

A New Keynesian Perspective

Jordi Gal´ı

Unemployment Fluctuations and

Stabilization Policies

A New Keynesian Perspective

Jordi Gal´ı

The MIT Press

Cambridge, Massachusetts

London, England

c 2011 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by

any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or

information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the

publisher.

For information about special quantity discounts, please email

special [email protected]

This book was set in Palatino by Aptara Inc. Printed and bound in the

United States of America.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Gal´ı, Jordi, 1961–

Unemployment fluctuations and stabilization policies : a new keynesian

perspective / Jordi Gal´ı.

p. cm. – (Zeuthen lectures)

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-262-01597-4 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Unemployment.

2. Unemployment – Government policy. 3. Monetary policy.

4. Keynesian economics. I. Title.

HD5707.5.G36 2011

339.5’3 – dc22 2010047659

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

For Ellen

Contents

Series Foreword ix

Preface xi

Introduction 1

1 A Simple Model of Unemployment and

Inflation Dynamics 7

2 Unemployment, the Output Gap, and the

Welfare Costs of Economic Fluctuations 37

3 Unemployment and Monetary Policy Design

in the New Keynesian Model 61

4 Concluding Remarks and Directions for

Future Research 83

Appendix A 89

Appendix B 91

Appendix C 93

Appendix D 95

References 97

Index 103

Series Foreword

The Zeuthen Lectures offer a forum for leading scholars

to develop and synthesize novel results in theoretical and

applied economics. The Zeuthen Lectures are organized by

the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen. The

aim is to present advances in knowledge in a form accessible

to a wide audience of economists and advanced students of

economics. The topics range from abstract theorizing to eco￾nomic history. Regardless of the choice of topic, the empha￾sis in the lecture series is on originality and relevance.

The lecture series is named after Frederik Zeuthen, a former

professor at the Institute of Economics.

Karl Gunnar Persson