Tài liệu THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT 1 pptx

WORKING PAPER SERIES

NO. 441 / FEBRUARY 2005

THE PHILLIPS CURVE

AND LONG-TERM

UNEMPLOYMENT

by Ricardo Llaudes

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WORKING PAPER SERIES

NO. 441 / FEBRUARY 2005

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THE PHILLIPS CURVE

AND LONG-TERM

UNEMPLOYMENT 1

by Ricardo Llaudes 2

1 I am grateful to Laurence Ball,Thomas Lubik, Christopher Carroll, Benoit Mojon,Adrian Pagan, an anonymous referee,

and seminar participants at the European Central Bank and Johns Hopkins University for many helpful

comments and suggestions.

2 The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA;

e-mail: [email protected]

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Working Paper Series No. 441

February 2005

CONTENTS

Abstract 4

Non-technical summary 5

1 Introduction 7

2 Evolution and studies of unemployment in

the OECD 9

2.1 Studies on long-term unemployment 11

3 Econometric model: the Phillips curve and

the NAIRU 12

3.1 Unemployment duration version of

the Phillips curve 13

3.2 Estimation issues 15

4 Empirical results 16

4.1 Main model results 16

4.2 Time path of the NAIRU 20

4.3 Confidence intervals 21

4.4 Euro area analysis 22

4.5 Implications for forecasting 24

4.5.1 Evaluating the forecasts 26

5 The role of labor market institutions 27

6 Robustness to alternative specifications 30

6.1 The wage Phillips curve 31

6.2 The effect of supply shocks 31

6.3 Changes to the signal-to-noise ratio 32

7 Conclusions 30

References 35

Tables and figures 39

European Central Bank working paper series 45