State of the Nation - South Africa 2004-2005 docx

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Compiled by the Democracy and Governance Research Programme,

Human Sciences Research Council

First published in South Africa by HSRC Press

Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa

www.hsrcpress.ac.za

Published in the rest of the world by Michigan State University Press

East Lansing, Michigan, 48823-5202, United States of America

© 2005 Human Sciences Research Council

First published 2005

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or

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Contents

List of tables vi

List of figures viii

Foreword xi

Mark Orkin

Acronyms xiii

Introduction: President Mbeki’s second term: opening the golden door? xix

John Daniel, Roger Southall and Jessica Lutchman

Part I: Politics

Introduction 3

1 Race and identity in the nation 9

Zimitri Erasmus

2 The state of parties post-election 2004: ANC dominance and

opposition enfeeblement 34

Roger Southall and John Daniel

3 Rural governance and citizenship in post-1994 South Africa:

democracy compromised? 58

Lungisile Ntsebeza

4 The state of corruption and accountability 86

Sam Sole

5 The state of the public service 112

Vino Naidoo

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Part II: Society

Introduction 137

6 The state of crime and policing 144

Ted Leggett

7 The state of the military 117

Len Le Roux and Henri Boshoff

8 The state of South Africa’s schools 210

Linda Chisholm

9 HIV/AIDS: finding ways to contain the pandemic 227

Tim Quinlan and Sarah Willan

10 Multiple communities: Muslims in post-apartheid South Africa 252

Goolam Vahed and Shamil Jeppie

11 The state of the art(s) 287

Lynn Maree

12 The state of the archives and access to information 313

Seán Morrow and Luvuyo Wotshela

13 A virtuous circle? Gender equality and representation in

South Africa 336

Shireen Hassim

Part III: Economy

Introduction 363

14 An overview of the South African economy 367

Stephen Gelb

15 Who owns South Africa: an analysis of state and private

ownership patterns 401

Reg Rumney

16 The state of employment 423

Miriam Altman

17 Black empowerment and corporate capital 455

Roger Southall

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18 ‘Empty stomachs, empty pockets’: poverty and inequality

in post-apartheid South Africa 479

Benjamin Roberts

19 A better life for all? Service delivery and poverty alleviation 511

David Hemson and Kwame Owusu-Ampomah

Part IV: South Africa in Africa

Introduction 541

20 South Africa and Nigeria: two unequal centres in a periphery 544

John Daniel, Jessica Lutchman and Sanusha Naidu

21 South Africa’s quiet diplomacy: the case of Zimbabwe 569

Lloyd M Sachikonye

Contributors 586

Index 589

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List of tables

Table 2.1 Outcome of the national elections, 1994, 1999 and 2004 38

Table 5.1 Public service growth in personnel

(including apartheid period) 114

Table 5.2 Comparative economic figures for white areas and black

homelands, 1985 117

Table 7.1 Expenditure estimates and summarised outputs for DoD

programmes for the medium-term expenditure framework 2004–07

(R thousands) 184

Table 7.2 Itemised expenditure for DoD, MTEF 2004–07 (R thousands) 184

Table 7.3 Numbers of members of forces integrated into SANDF 187

Table 7.4 Racial composition of the SANDF, 1994, 1998, 2003 188

Table 7.5 Gender composition of SANDF, 1994, 1998, 2003 188

Table 7.6 Approved force design of SANDF 192

Table 8.1 Provincial education expenditure per programme (R millions) 209

Table 8.2 Expenditure per learner by province (Rand) 209

Table 8.3 Enrolment in educator training at universities and technikons, 2000

and 2001 214

Table 8.4 Changing union membership, 1999– 2002 214

Table 8.5 Number of teachers in schools, per province 223

Table 9.1 Summary of HIV/AIDS-specific allocations in the

national Budget 233

Table 9.2 Overall HIV prevalence (extrapolated from study sample)

by province, South Africa 2002 240

Table 9. 3 Provincial HIV prevalence, antenatal clinic attendees, South Africa

1994–2002 241

Table 9.4 Extrapolation of HIV prevalence amongst antenatal clinic attendees

to the general population, 2000–02 241

Table 9.5 Cost of HIV to three companies in KwaZulu-Natal,

South Africa 243

vi

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Table 10.1 Muslim population per province and race 253

Table 14.1 Government budget: size and distribution 371

Table 14.2 Decomposition of aggregate demand, 1989–2003 392

Table 14.3 Sectoral output shares, 1995 prices 395

Table 14.4 Percentage shares of merchandise exports, by sector 396

Table 16.1 Unemployment rates by region and gender, 2003 (percentages) 424

Table 16.2 Unemployment trends (percentages) 425

Table 16.3 Summary of net employment creation (thousands) 434

Table 16.4 Female earnings as a percentage of male earnings,

formal sector 2002 438

Table 16.5 Mean monthly incomes 440

Table 16.6 Unionisation 443

Table 16.7 Average year-on-year growth rates of productivity

and real wages 444

Table 18.1 Subjective assessment of food insecurity in South African

households by province and area of residence, 1995–2002

(percentage) 491

Table 18.2 Annual per capita income by race group (percentage of

white level) 494

Table 18.3 Gini coefficients by population group using per capita income 495

Table 18.4 Decomposition of national income by income source and poverty

status (percentage share in overall Gini) 496

Table 19.1 Forms of household sanitation 1995 and 2001 (percentage) 521

Table 19.2 Main reason for interruption of water service for more than one day

by monthly household income 526

Table 19.3 Human Development Index and life expectancy trends 531

Table 20.1 Rand value of South African exports by continent/region,

2000–03 547

Table 20.2 South Africa’s top five African trading partners (R billions) 549

Table 20.3 South African investments in Africa by region and investment type,

value in R millions and by market share, 1997–2001 551

Table 20.4 African investments by region in South Africa, value in

R millions and by market share, 1997–2001 552

Table 20.5 Major South African companies in other African countries by sector

(selected companies) 554

vii

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List of figures

Figure 2.1 Comparison of 1994, 1999 and 2004 elections by votes 39

Figure 2.2 Voter registration and valid votes for 1994, 1999 and 2004

elections 39

Figure 5.1 Comparative racial representation within central public

service 115

Figure 5.2 Profile of public service, 2003 118

Figure 5.3 Racial composition of South African public service, 2003 119

Figure 5.4 Senior managers by race and salary level 119

Figure 5.5 Senior managers by provincial administration and national

departments 121

Figure 6.1 Percentage change in crime rates between 1994–95 and

2002–03 151

Figure 7.1 Structure of the Department of Defence 181

Figure 9.1 HIV prevalence rate by skill level in South Africa 244

Figure 14.1 Fiscal balances as share of GDP, 1990–2003 373

Figure 14.2 Exchange rate volatility, 1982–2003, percentage change in

effective rates, quarterly 377

Figure 14.3 Capital inflows, quarterly, 1990–2003 379

Figure 14.4 Effective exchange rate indices, monthly 1990–2003,

1995=100 380

Figure 14.5 Interest rates and inflation, 1983–2003 381

Figure 14.6 GDP growth, consumption growth and changes in capital

formation, 1983–2003 384

Figure 14.7 Investment as share of GDP, 1982–2003 385

Figure 14.8 National savings as share of GDP, 1982–2003 388

Figure 14.9 Balance of payments, 1982–2003 390

viii

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ix

Figure 14.10 Trade components as share of GDP, 1982–2003 391

Figure 16.1 GDP and unemployment 426

Figure 16.2 Unemployment by race 426

Figure 16.3 Comparing strict and broad unemployment 427

Figure 16.4 Number of unemployed by age 248

Figure 16.5 Employment and labour force 248

Figure 16.6 ‘Not working’, as a percentage of working age population,

by race 429

Figure 16.7 GDP and employment growth – comparing formal non￾agricultural private sector employment in the LFS and SEE 431

Figure 16.8 Employment in formal and non-formal sectors 432

Figure 16.9 Change in formal employment 433

Figure 16.10 Distribution of employment, broad sectors 433

Figure 16.11 Formal employment by skill level 435

Figure 16.12 Proportion of labour force, productive and unproductive 437

Figure 16.13 Wage trends by skill level in the formal sector, 2000 prices 437

Figure 16.14 Formal sector workers with written contract, by skill category 439

Figure 16.15 Formal sector workers with pension plan, by skill category 439

Figure 16.16 Earnings in the formal and informal sector, by level of

education, 2002 441

Figure 18.1 Incidence of poverty by province (percentage of households) 487

Figure 18.2 Change in employment and economically active population

by race and gender, 1995–99 (percentage) 489

Figure 18.3 Real annual per capita income by race group, 1970–2000

(constant 2000 Rands) 494

Figure 19.1 Progress over the period, water delivery, 1993–2003 519

Figure 19.2 Progress over the period, sanitation, 1993–2003 520

Figure 19.3 Consumption of drinking water 524

Figure 19.4 Access to piped water by household income 524

Figure 19.5 Access to sanitation and household income 525

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x

Figure 20.1 Market share of South Africa’s export trade by continent/region,

2003 547

Figure 20.2 Market share of South Africa’s import trade by continent/region,

2003 548

Figure 20.3 South Africa’s trade balances by continent/region, 2003 548

Figure 20.4 South Africa’s investment partners in Africa, 2002 552

Figure 20.5 South Africa’s trade relations with Nigeria, 1992–2003 560

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xi

Foreword

State of the Nation: South Africa 2004–2005 is the second issue of what, last

year, the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) announced would

become an annual set of original essays dedicated to reviewing developments

in South Africa. Recalling the format of the South African Review that was

edited by Glenn Moss and others in the 1980s, and drawing inspiration from

the presidential ‘State of the Nation’ speeches which have become a feature of

our new democracy, these annual collections seek to provide empirically￾based analysis and assessment of contemporary events and trends from a

developmental perspective, reflecting the values that are embedded in the

Constitution.

The founding State of the Nation collection attracted widespread interest. It

was commended for the quality and coverage of the contributions and the

vigorous argument that they occasioned. The current volume constitutes a

worthy successor, and is sure to have a similar effect. It is a project of the

Democracy and Governance Research Programme of the HSRC. But it draws

upon original and stimulating work also undertaken elsewhere within the

organisation and, in addition, features contributions by a spread of analysts

from universities and civil society. As such, it powerfully illustrates both the

breadth of the expanded HSRC’s own capabilities and its commitment to

undertaking such work in active collaboration with publicly and privately

funded research partners.

The importance of the annual State of the Nation volumes in promoting pub￾lic debate in South Africa has been recognised by five donor organisations.

Atlantic Philanthropy, the Ford Foundation and the Mott Foundation have

generously provided funding for the project over three years. Without their

assistance, the production of the book would not have been possible. The

Konrad Adenauer Foundation and the Durban-based Democracy Develop￾ment Programme helped to ensure that the first volume entered the main￾stream of national policy discourse by providing funding for a series of three

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xii

launch workshops. They have generously agreed to repeat the exercise for

the present collection. Without the extensive supplementation of its parlia￾mentary grant by partners such as these, the HSRC would be far less able to

discharge its statutory mandate of undertaking social-scientific research of

relevance to public policy, public knowledge and public debate.

The HSRC’s mandate is a distinctively challenging one. Any scientific research

that is interesting and profound will engender controversy, in itself and its

applications. But this is notably true of social research, which deals with

politics, the economy, and society, both locally and internationally. It thus

covers matters which participants engaged in their respective institutions –

such as politicians, managers and employees, activists, and diplomats – as well

as thoughtful citizens engaged in their everyday lives, may wish to apply in

their decision-making. These participants and citizens are thus as intensely

concerned to assess the research as the analysts who produce it. The special

contribution, and obligation, of the latter is to provide considered analyses

that are based on empirical evidence and the scholarly insights of their

disciplines.

In this regard the editors of this second volume of State of the Nation – John

Daniel, Roger Southall and Jessica Lutchman – and all its contributors,

beyond and within the HSRC, continue to serve us well. They are to be

thanked for providing a wide-ranging work of intellectual substance that will

help to advance democracy and development in our country and on our

continent by provoking relevant reflection and lively discussion.

Dr FM Orkin

President and Chief Executive Officer

HSRC

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xiii

Acronyms

ABET Adult Basic Education and Training

ACDP African Christian Democratic Party

Actag Arts and Culture Task Group

AG Auditor General

AGOA African Growth and Opportunity Act

AIDS Acquired immune deficiency syndrome

AMA Africa Muslim Agency

Amps All-Media and Products Survey (produced by the

South African Advertising Research Foundation [SAARF])

ANC African National Congress

Apla Azanian Peoples’ Liberation Army

ART Anti-retroviral treatment

AU African Union

BASA Business and the Arts

BEE Black economic empowerment

BEEC Black Economic Empowerment Commission

BIG Basic income grant

BMATT British Military Advisory and Training Team

BNC Bi-national Commission (South Africa-Nigeria)

Cals Centre for Applied Legal Studies

CAP Community Arts Project

CEDAW United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of

Discrimination Against Women

CEO Chief Executive Officer

CESM Classification educational subject matter

CII Channel Islam International

CLRB Communal Land Rights Bill

Codesa Convention for a Democratic South Africa

Contralesa Congress of Traditional Leaders of South Africa

COP Community-oriented policing

Cosatu Congress of South African Trade Unions

CPF Community police forum

CPI Consumer price index

CSANDF Chief of the South African National Defence Force

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CTA Ciskei Territorial Authority

DA Democratic Alliance

DAC Department of Arts and Culture, South Africa

DACST Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology, South Africa

DEAT Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South Africa

DFA Department of Foreign Affairs, South Africa

DG Director General

DISA Digital Imaging Project of South Africa

DLA Department of Land Affairs, South Africa

DoD Department of Defence, South Africa

DoE Department of Education

DoH Department of Health, South Africa

DoHA Department of Home Affairs, South Africa

DoL Department of Labour, South Africa

DoSD Department of Social Development, South Africa

DoSS Department of Safety and Security, South Africa

DP Democratic Party

DPLG Department of Provincial and Local Government, South Africa

DPRU Development Policy Research Unit

DPSA Department of Public Service and Administration, South Africa

DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo

DSAC Department of Sport, Arts and Culture, Eastern Cape

DTI Department of Trade and Industry, South Africa

DWAF Department of Water Affairs and Forestry, South Africa

ECD Early Childhood Development

ELSEN Education for Learners with Special Needs

EMIS Education Management Information System

EMS Economic and management sciences

EU European Union

FDI Foreign direct investment

FET Further education and training

FF+ Freedom Front Plus

GCIS Government Communications and Information System

GDP Gross domestic product

GEAR Growth, Employment, and Redistribution strategy

GET General Education and Training

GNU Government of National Unity

HDI Human Development Index

HE Higher Education

HIV Human immunodeficiency virus

HSRC Human Sciences Research Council

xiv

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xv

HBU Historically black universities

HWU Historically white universities

IBA Independent Broadcasting Authority

ICT Information and communications technology

ICVS International crime victim survey

ID Independent Democrats

Idasa Institute for Democracy in South Africa

IDC Industrial Development Corporation

IEC Independent Electoral Commission

IES Income and expenditure survey

IFP Inkatha Freedom Party

IJS Integrated Justice System

INCD International Network for Cultural Diversity

INCP The International Network for Cultural Policy

IPCI Islamic Propagation Centre International

ISS Institute for Security Studies

IT Information technology

IUC Islamic Unity Conference

JMC Joint Monitoring Committee on the Improvement of the

Quality of Life and Status of Women

JSE Johannesburg Stock Exchange

KZN KwaZulu-Natal

LFPR labour force participation rate

LFS Labour force survey

LPM Landless People’s Movement

LPPPD Litres of water per person per day

LSM Living standard measure

MDC Movement for Democratic Change

MDG Millennium Development Goals

MK Umkhonto we Sizwe

MoD Minister of Defence

MTEF Medium-term expenditure framework

MJC Muslim Judicial Council

MP Member of Parliament

MPL Muslim Personal Law

MVA Manufacturing value added

MYM Muslim Youth Movement

NAC National Arts Council

NACCA National Action Committee for Children Infected and Affected by HIV/AIDS

Nacosa National AIDS Committee of South Africa

Nacsa Network for Arts and Culture in South Africa

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