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PROCEEDINGS OF THE

15th INTERNATIONAL

SHIP AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES CONGRESS

VOLUME 2

Edited by

A.E. MANSOUR

University of California, Berkeley, USA

and

R.C. ERTEKIN

University of Hawaii, Honolulu, USA

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IEGO,

2003

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PREFACE

This volume contains the 6 Specialist Committee and 2 Special Task Committee reports that will

be presented and discussed at the 15 th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress

(ISSC 2003)in San Diego, USA, 11-15 August, 2003.

Volume 1 contains the 8 Technical Committee reports. Volume 3 will include the discussions of

the reports, the chairmen's reply, the text of the invited lecture and the congress report of ISSC

2003, and it will appear in 2004.

The Standing Committee of the 15th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress in San

Diego is:

Chairman: Prof. A.E. Mansour USA

Prof. J.L. Armand France

Prof. B. Boon The Netherlands

Dr. M. Dogliani Italy

Prof. W. Fricke Germany

Dr. P.A. Frieze UK

Prof. C.D. Jang Korea

Prof. T. Jastrzebki Poland

Prof. J.J. Jensen Denmark

Prof. T. Moan Norway

Prof. H. Ohtsubo Japan (ex officio)

Dr. N. Pegg Canada

Prof. Y.S. Wu China

Secretary: Prof. R.C. Ertekin USA

On behalf of the Standing Committee and members of the ISSC, I would like to thank the

American Bureau of Shipping and the Ship Structure Committee for their financial support of

ISSC 2003. The support of the City of San Diego is also gratefully acknowledged.

Berkeley, USA

March 2003

Alaa E. Mansour

Chairman

This Page Intentionally Left Blank

CONTENTS

Preface . . . . . . . , . . . . .

REPORT OF SPECIALIST COMMITTEE V1:

REPORT OF SPECIALIST COMMITTEE V2:

REPORT OF SPECIALIST COMMITTEE V3:

REPORT OF SPECIALIST COMMITTEE V4:

REPORT OF SPECIALIST COMMITTEE VS:

REPORT OF SPECIALIST COMMITTEE V6:

.............. V

RISK ASSESSMENT . . . . . 1

INSPECTION AND MONITORING 37

COLLISION AND GROUNDING . 71

STRUCTURAL DESIGN OF HIGH

SPEED VESSELS . , . . . . 109

FLOATING PRODUCTION SYSTEMS 149

FABRICATION TECHNOLOGIES 189

REPORT OF SPECIAL TASK COMMITTEE V1.l: FATIGUE LOADING . . . . . 235

REPORT OF SPECIAL TASK COMMITTEE V1.2: FATIGUE STRENGTH ASSESSMENT 285

Indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327

vii

This Page Intentionally Left Blank

15th INTERNATIONAL SHIP AND

OFFSHORE STRUCTURE CONGRESS 2003

11-15 AUGUST 2003

SAN DIEGO, USA

VOLUME 2

/EGO,

SPECIALIST COMMITTEE V.1

RISK ASSESSMENT

MANDATE

Concern for the development of rational procedures for qualitative and quantitative risk

assessment of ships. This shall include assessment of probability and consequence of accidental

situations as well as evaluation of measures to control and mitigate the risk. Particular attention

shall be paid to fire and explosion, extreme environmental condition, human element, traffic and

obstructions, and operational hazards.

MEMBERS

Chairman: Dr. William Moore

Professor Y. Chert

Mr. A. Dinovitzer

Professor O. Litonov

Dr. Marc Prevosto

Dr. Angelo Tonelli

Professor Y.S. Yang

Mr. Koichi Yoshida

KEYWORDS

Risk assessment, risk analysis, formal safety assessment, hazard, accident, consequence,

frequency, probability, cost, benefit

This Page Intentionally Left Blank

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION . 5

2 REVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES IN THE MARITIME INDUSTRY

2.1 Regulatory .........

2.1.1 Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for the Maritime Rule Making Process

2.1.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria for IMO .....

2.1.3 Bulk Carriers ........

2.1.3.1 FSA Study on Bulk Carrier Safety by Japan .

2.1.3.2 FSA Study on Life-Saving Appliances by Norway . .

2.1.3.3 FSA Study on Bulk Carrier Safety by Internationally Collaborated

Group . . .

2.1.3.4 Decision Making at IMO . .

2.1.3.5 Other FSA Studies for Bulk Carriers

2.1.4 Passenger Ships ........

2.1.5 Maritime Security . .

2.2 Industry .........

2.2.1 International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) FSA Training

2.2.2 Guidance Publications on FSA . . .

2.2.3 Incorporation of Safety Assessment into the Rule Making Process

2.2.4 Application of Risk Assessment to Icebreakers .

2.2.5 Joint Research Team on FSA . . .

2.2.6 Alternative Design and Arrangements for Fire Safety .

2.2.7 Marine Insurance Industry: Risk Assessment and Risk Selection

2.3 Applications ....

2.3.1 Risk Based Fire Safety Design ........

2.3.2 Event and Fault Tree Application ..........

2.3.3 Fuzzy Set Modelling and its Application to Maritime Safety

2.3.4 FSA for Safety of Coastal Trading Ships in Japanese Waters

2.3.5 Safety of Ships Carrying Irradiated Nuclear Fuel .......

2.3.6 Alert Communication from Small Craft Using Cellular Phones . .

8

8

13

13

13

14

14

14

14

15

16

19

19

21

21

22

24

25

26

26

3 ELEMENTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT ...........

3.1 Uncertainty of Data .........

3.2 Decision Making Process based on the Results of FSA . .

3.3 Effect of Safety Measures that have not Appeared in Historical Casualty Data

3.4 Human Element .......

27

27

28

29

29

4 Specialist Committee V.1

4 CONCLUSIONS ................... 29

5 RECOMMENDATIONS ................... 29

APPENDICES ..................... 30

Appendix 1: Indices for Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) ........ 30

Appendix 2: Combination of RCOs and the Effect ........... 31

REFERENCES ....................... 32

Risk Assessment 5

1 INTRODUCTION

The application of risk assessment has evolved over 20 years in the offshore industry and within

the last 5 years in the marine industry albeit in different directions. The offshore industry has

focused on the application of risk assessment to evaluate the safety of individual offshore

constructions. The marine industry has primarily focused on the applications of risk assessment to

further enhance and bring greater clarity to the international rule making process.

ISSC established, at its conference in 1997 in Trondheim, Norway, Specialist Committee V.1,

Risk Assessment. At the time of the first report of this Committee at ISSC 2000 in Nagasaki

(Yoshida et al, 2000) the International Maritime Organization (IMO) was agreeing to the use of

risk assessment methodologies and techniques for the first time. The 2000 report also addressed

the application of risk-based approaches in the offshore industry.

This report provides the status of the application of risk assessment with a specific focus on the

marine industry and provides insight into the direction that the industry is following in the

research, development and application.

2 REVIEW OF RISK ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES IN THE MARITIME INDUSTRY

Yoshida et al (2000) provides a review of the fundamentals for the application of FSA to the IMO

rule making process. Since the development of formal safety assessment (FSA) approaches at

IMO, there has been a wide range of activities associated with applying these techniques. This

chapter provides a brief summary of these activities.

2.1

2.1.1

Regulatory

Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for the maritime rule making process

As mentioned in the Yoshida et al (2000), IMO established interim guidelines for the application

of FSA in IMO MSC/Circ.829 and MEPC/Circ.335 (IMO, 2002a). To date, these interim

guidelines have been used, as trial basis, in several risk assessment in conjunction with IMO rule

making process. Then, IMO decided to improve the interim guidelines whilst taking into account

the experiences obtained through trial application.

The Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) of IMO established a correspondence group to revise the

interim FSA Guidelines. The group agreed to further include the following into the Guidelines.

integration of analysis for human element through human reliability analysis (HRA); and

9 risk evaluation criteria.

With regard to the human element, the group agreed that the HRA guidance developed by the

International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) should be incorporated into FSA

Guidelines, as an appendix.

With regard to risk evaluation criteria, the group did not reach any firm conclusion. However, this

topic was discussed at 74th session of IMO MSC, and it was agreed that Gross Cost of Averting a

Fatality (Gross CAF or G-CAF) and Net Cost Averting Fatality (Net CAF or N-CAF) were most

relevant for cost benefit assessment and that G-CAF and N-CAF should be used for comparison

among risk control options (RCOs) in relation to the safety of life, and were included in FSA

guidelines. In addition, it was further agreed that other indices are necessary to consider RCOs for

6 Specialist Committee E1

reducing the affect on property and the environment. This issue are remained for future

consideration.

The record of the discussion in the correspondence group was presented to 74th session of the

MSC (2001a, 2001b). The record of the discussion at MSC 74 is given by paper of IMO (2001c)

and further summarised in Gard Services (2001). IMO has since agreed, in both MSC and Marine

Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) to a final set of FSA guidelines as provided in IMO

(2002a).

2.1.2 Risk acceptance criteria for IMO

As part of the FSA initiatives, recent efforts have also addressed the issue of risk acceptance

criteria. As noted in Skjong (2002) it is difficult to make risk-based decisions without using or

disclosing risk criteria. Risk acceptance criteria is of particular importance to IMO and efforts are

currently underway to provide 'explicit' acceptable risk criteria. Skjong and Eknes (2001, 2002)

provide an outline from which societal risk acceptance criteria may be established based on

similar activities within other industries with similar maritime comparisons made for various ship

types. Risk acceptance criteria will continue to be on the forefront of IMO related activities in the

coming years.

2.1.3 Bulk carriers

IMO, recognizing the importance of enhancing the safety of bulk carriers, had considered and

developed provisions, which were adopted as Chapter XII of 1974 International Convention for

the Safety of life at Sea (SOLAS 74), as amended, at a SOLAS Conference held in November

1997. The Conference also adopted several resolutions concerning the safety of bulk carriers.

Taking the resolutions into account, IMO MSC, at its 69th session in May 1999, agreed that it

should further consider safety of bulk carriers.

At the 70th session of MSC in December 1999, the United Kingdom offered a plan of conducting

an internationally collaborated FSA study regarding bulk carrier safety. At that session, Japan

announced that it would also conduct an FSA study on bulk carrier safety by itself.

2.1.3.1 FSA study on bulk carrier safety by Japan

Since January 1999, a research committee (RR74BC-WG) in the Shipbuilding Research

Association of Japan has been established under the supervision of the Ministry of Land,

Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT) in co-operation with participants of the representatives of

ship-builders, ship owners and operators, ship masters, officers and crew, the Japanese Coast

Guard, National Maritime Research Institute and Class NK, for the purpose of conducting the

FSA study on bulk carrier safety. The research committee conducted the FSA study, according to

the FSA Guidelines in IMO (2002a), on typical bulk carriers with have topside tanks and hopper

side tanks in the cargo spaces. The size of the bulk carriers under study was categorized into 4

groups by deadweight tonnes, (i.e. cape size, panamax size, handy size and small handy size).

The casualty data-base was provided by Lloyd's Maritime Incident Service and Class NK was

used.

The results of the FSA study including final recommendations have been reported to IMO (2002b,

2002c and 2002e). The final recommendations for decision-making from the study are as follows:

.1 The risk level of whole bulk carriers in future would stay at a relatively upper part of the 'As

low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) region even after recently adopted RCOs of SOLAS