PRINEVILLE AIRPORT AIRPORT LAYOUT PLAN REPORT phần 4 doc

CITY OF PRINEVILLE Prineville Airport

CROOK COUNTY Airport Layout Plan Report

The 2000-2001 activity counts exceeded the year 2000 forecast by approximately 29 percent and

the 2014 forecast is comparable to the 2000-2001 RENS activity count. The average annual

growth in aircraft operations between 1993 and 2001 was 10.2 percent, although it appears that

most of the growth corresponded to the sharp increase in hangar construction that occurred at the

airport between 1998 and 2001.

The recent surge in based aircraft has contributed to an increase in activity that has outpaced the

1994 forecasts. Based on the recent shifts in activity, the 1994 ALP forecasts no longer provide a

reliable basis for estimating future activity.

State Aviation System Planning

The most recent Oregon Aviation System Plan7 (OASP) forecasts of based aircraft were

developed using 1994 base year numbers, with projections made to 2014. The 2000 Oregon

Aviation Plan8 (OAP) extrapolated these forecasts to 2018, but did not include any changes in

forecast assumptions. From a 1994 base year estimate of 30 based aircraft, the OASP projected

the number of based aircraft to increase to 38 by 2014; this projection was subsequently extended

to 40 based aircraft by 2018. The OASP forecasts (1994-2018) represent an increase in based

aircraft of 33 percent, which translates into an annual average growth rate of 1.2 percent.

Aircraft operations were projected to increase from 4,500 (1994) to 5,927 in 2018, which

translates into an annual average growth rate of 1.15 percent.

The OASP forecasts are useful as a general reference to establish baseline long-term growth

rates. However, since they have not been substantively revised in eight years, they are not

considered recent enough for use in developing updated projections.

FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF)

The TAF for Prineville reflects no increase in based aircraft and a very modest increase in

aircraft operations through 2015. From a 2000 base year total of 4,780 operations, the TAF

projects operations to increase to 5,164 in 2015. The increase of about 8 percent translates into

an annual average growth rate of 0.52 percent over the fifteen-year period. A review of the TAF

indicates that the base year numbers for based aircraft and operations do not coincide with recent

estimates of activity. As a result, the long-term forecasts produce activity levels that are below

current levels and will need to be updated to provide relevant long-term projections.

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Oregon Continuous Aviation System Plan, Volume I Inventory and Forecasts (1997, AirTech).

July 2003 2-32 Inventory/Forecasts

Century West Engineering Aron Faegre & Associates Gazeley & Associates

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Oregon Aviation Plan, 2000 Dye Management Group.