Đề xuất mô hình giám sát và đánh giá chiến lược quốc gia về biến đổi khí hậu

Nghien cOu • Trao doi

M xuat mo hinh giam sat va danh gia

Chien lutfc quoc gia ve bien doi khi hau

•

O ThS. NGUYI N TOAN THANG

G/ara <J5c Tnjng tam Cong nghe ilng pho biSn dSi khi hiu

Cue Khituang Thuf vin vi BlSn dai khi hiu

N

ghien cUu niy nhim xay di/ng md hinh

glim sit va Mnh gii (GS&OG) Chien lupe

quSc gia ve BDKH (BDKH). Debao dam vlgc

thuc hifa CWfa ii^w duvc lau dai, ben vOng vi hiiu

qui, cdng tic GSiOG la hogt dgng khdng the thiol,

ddng thdl ii cdng eg die luc giup cho cic nhi quan

If vi hoach dinh chinh sich. Trong dd, mit bd

dinh gii dugc xiy di/ng vdi 93 chlsd, chia thinh

^hdm nhim GS&BG Wfa Vu/C hign 10 nhigm vg

Mlgc dS ra trong Chien luge. Tuy nhiin, de hogt

dgng GSiDG dugc lien tgc, higu qua, can cd mgt

md hinh GSiDG . KSt qua nghien cUu da dua ra

Olit mo hinh GS&BG, trong dd chl rd mdi tUdng tic

giua dc ddn vi vi mgt sgphin cap rd rang trong

qui trinh bio cio dU ll$u cho hogt dgng GS4BG

ChlSn luge.

MS di u

Theo Quylt dinh s l 57/QD-BTNMT ngi y

17/01/2013 ci a Bd TN&MT, d l ti l "Nghiin ei u d l

xuit xi y dflng b l dn g cy phye vg giim si t v i dinh

g i i vifa ttiflc hiin Chiln lipc quie gia v l BDKH"

dflpc ph i duylt vdi mgc dfch chinh la xi y dflng v i

ban hinh Bd dn g cg QS&DG nhim hudng df a v i

cgng d p d e dn g cg d n ttiilt giip ttiflc hiin dn g

tfa GS&DQ. Cung vdi dd, mdt md hinh GS&DQ se

dflpc dflpc d l xuit nhim sd d l h d d c budc v i qu i

trinh ttiflc Win dn g tie QS&DG eho Chiln lupc.

PhlMi g phi p nghiin ci u

Phuang phip nghiin alu tii lilu. TO viic phin

ttch d c ehinh dc h v l BDKH, ttiu ttiip ti i lipu, s l Ufa

v i ting hpp ttiing ttn v i dfla trin d c ea sd khoa hpc

v i thye tien, ph i hpp vdi dilu kiin phit triln KT-XH

c i a Viit Nam v i r i sd t d c cd chl , chinh sich d

liln quan di n vifa t l chflc ttiflc hiin d c nhiim vg

c i a Chiln Iflpc d l dua ra phflong phip luin v l

GS&DG vifa t l chflc ttiflc Win Chiln Iflpc.

Phuang phip nghiin cdu thuc dia: 0 1 til da

nghiin cflu hien ttang v i ttiam vl n tai d c bd, nginh

v i dja phuong nhim r i sdt , phin tteh hiiu qu i d c

nhiim vy, bien phfa QLNN trong QS&DG ci c hoat

dfag fag phd vdi BDKH. Phin ttch ttIm nang phit

triln d c hoat ddng ttiflc Win Chiln Iflpc theo tflng

giai doan nhim d l xuit xi y dflng co sS d i lieu, ttidng

tin phgc vg GS&DG thfle hien Chiln lupc v i ci e

nhiim vy. bien phip GS&DG gi i thfle hiin Chiln

Iflpc dfla trfa d c co d u t l chflc nginh dpc liin quan.

PhiMig phip tham vSn chuyin gia: D l tii da

ttiam vfa ki t hap vdi d c chuyin gia trong v i ngoii

nflde nham r i sdt , danh gi i ci e phfldng phip luan

ttong GS&DG cae chiln Iflpc, k l hoach, chflong trinh

d p qui c gia v i mang tinh liin nginh, liln ITnh vflc.

Dinh gii , phin tfch d c phiong phip luin ph i hpp

vdi vifa GS&DG dn g ti c t l chflc thfle hiin d e hoat

ddng in g phd vdi BDKH; phin tich ci c nhl$m vg

ttong Chiln iflpc nhim di a ra d c ch?sl QS&DG cy

ttil cho ting ITnh vflo. Xi y dflng phfldng phip chung

cho GS&DG ttiflc hipn Chiln iflflc phi hpp vdi dilu

kifa khich quan ttieo ting giai doan.

Sau khi nghiin ci u v i phin tich, nhdm nghiin

c i u xi c dinh ap dgng kit hpp d ba phuang phip d l

thfle Win d l tai. Ngoii ra, ki t hpp s i dgng mOt s l

phflang phip nghiin ci u khac nhfl: PhflOng phip

phfa ttch v i ting hpp ly ttiuylt, phflflng phip m l hinh

h d , phflflng phip sa dl , phflflng phip phin loai v i

h i ttiing hoa ly ttiuylt d l cd dflpc ki t qu i cd kh i

ning fag dgng cao.

K i t qu i nghiin cflu

Trin CO s6 lfla chpn GS&DG i i phflflng phip dfla

tt-en ki t qu i v i ki t qu i bp ch? s l QS&DG, nhdm

nghiin ci u da d l ra m l hinh GS&DG thfle hiin

Chiln Iflpc nhfl sau:

Cdcautd chde thgc hl$n GSiDG ChiSn luge

qude gia

H i ttiing GS&DG l i ci n c i d l thuc di y ttiflc

hifa ChUn Iflpc ttiln khai manh mi , ttjfa diin v i hifa

qui . H i ttidng GS&DG dflpc xi y dflng bao gim' 3

d p dfla bi n nl n tin g h# ttiing t l chi c ttiflc hiin

Chiln Iflpc. bao gim :

Tdi nguyin vd Mei truong I Wl-lliimi gi20ia 11