Climate Change Observed Impacts On Planet Earth

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OBSERVED IMPACTS ON

PLANET EARTH

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Climate Change:

Observed Impacts on Planet Earth

Climate Change:

Observed Impacts

on Planet Earth

Edited by

Trevor M. Letcher

Emeritus Professor

University of KwaZulu-Natal

Durban, South Africa

Amsterdam • Boston • Heidelberg • London • New York • Oxford

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First edition 2009

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Climate change : observed impacts on planet Earth / edited by Trevor M. Letcher. — 1st ed.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-444-53301-2

1. Climatic changes. 2. Climatic changes-Environmental aspects. 3. Global environmental

change. I. Letcher, T. M. (Trevor M.)

QC903.C56 2009

551.6-dc22

2009006502

ISBN: 978-0-444-53301-2

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ELSEVIER K Ỉ Ỉ 5 Sabre Foundation

Contents

Foreword xiii

Preface XV

Contributors xix

Introduction xxiii

Part I

Possible Causes of Climate Change

1. The Role of Atmospheric Gases in Global Warming

R. P. Tuckett

1. Introduction 3

2. Origin of the Greenhouse Effect: 'Primary' and 'Secondary' Effects 4

3. The Physical Chemistry Properties of Greenhouse Gases 9

4. The Lifetime of a Greenhouse Gas in the Earth's Atmosphere 15

5. General Comments on Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases 17

6. Conclusion 18

References 19

2. The Role of Widespread Surface Solar Radiation Trends

in Climate Change: Dimming and Brightening

S. Cohen

1. Introduction 22

2. Solar Radiation and its Measurement 22

3. Trends in Surface Solar Radiation or Global Dimming

and Brightening 26

4. The Causes of Dimming and Brightening 32

5. The Influence of Solar Radiation Changes (Dimming and

Brightening) on Climate 33

6 . Conclusions 38

References 38

3. The Role of Space Weather and Cosmic Ray Effects

in Climate Change

L. I. Dorm an

1. Introduction 44

2. Solar Activity, Cosmic Rays and Climate Change 45

V

( vi Contents

3. The Influence on the Earth's Climate of the Solar System Moving

Around the Galactic Centre and Crossing Galaxy Arms

4. The Influence of Molecular-Dust Galactic Clouds on the

Earth's Climate 65

5. The Influence of Interplanetary Dust Sources on the Earth's clim ate 67

6 . Space Factors and Global Warming 6 8

7. The Influence of Asteroids on the Earth's Climate 70

8 . The Influence of Nearby Supernova on the Earth's Climate 70

9. Discussion and Conclusions 71

References 74

4. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global

Change

c . Stenchikov

1. Introduction 77

2. Aerosol Loading, Spatial Distribution and Radiative Effect 79

3. Volcanoes and Climate 82

4. Summary 98

References 99

5. The Role of Variations of the Earth's Orbital Characteristics

in Climate Change

L. J. Lourens and E. Tuenter

1. Introduction 103

2. Astronomical Parameters 104

3. Orbital-Induced Climate Change 112

4. Conclusion 120

References 121

Part II

A Geological History of Climate Change

6. A Geological History of Climate Change

y. Zalasiewicz and M. Williams

1. Introduction ^27

2. Climate Models j 2 8

3. Long-Term Climate Trends ^29

4. Early Climate History

5. Phanerozoic Glaciations 1 3 2

6 . The Mesozoic-Early Cenozoic Greenhouse 133

7. Development of the Quaternary Icehouse i 3 4

8 . Astronomical Modulation of Climate

9. Milankovitch Cyclicity in Quaternary (Pleistocene)

Climate History 1 2 5

Contents GĐ

10. Quaternary Sub-Milankovitch Cyclicity

11. The Holocene

12. Climate of the Anthropocene

13. Conclusions

137

138

138

139

139References

Part III

Indicators of Climate and Global Change

7. Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation as Indicator

of Climate Change

T. Reich ler

1. Introduction 145

2. The General Circulation of the Atmosphere 147

3. The Poleward Expansion of the Tropical Circulation 149

4. The Decreasing Intensity of the Tropical Circulation 155

5. Emerging Mechanisms 155

6 . Connection to Extratropical Circulation Change 159

7. Outstanding Problems and Conclusions 160

References 162

8. Weather Pattern Changes in the Tropics and

Mid-Latitudes as an Indicator of Global Changes

R. M. Trigo and L. Gim eno

1. Introduction 165

2. Observed Changes in Extra-Tropical Patterns 166

3. Changes in Tropical Patterns 170

4. Conclusion 178

References 179

9. Bird Ecology as an Indicator of Climate and Global

Change

w. Fiedler

1. Introduction 181

2. Indicators of Change 182

3. Conclusion 193

References 193

10. Mammal Ecology as an Indicator of Climate Change

M. M. Hum phries

1. Introduction: A Primer on Mammal Thermoregulation and Climate

Impacts 197

(xliT ) Contents

2. Demonstrated Impacts of Climate Change on Mammals 199

3. Linking Time and Space in Mammal Climate Responses 210

References 2 1'

11. Climate Change and Temporal and Spatial Mismatches

in Insect Communities

S. L. Pelini, K. M. Prior, D. y. Parker, J. D. K. Dzurisin, R. L Lindroth

and J. J. Hellm ann

1. Introduction 215

2. Direct Effects of Climate Change on Insects 217

3. Host Plant-Mediated Effects on Insects 219

4. Predator-Mediated Effects on Insect Populations 222

5. Climate Change and Insect Pests 225

6. Conclusion 226

References 227

12. Sea Life (Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems) as an

Indicator of Climate and Global Change

M. Edwards

1. Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems 233

2. Observed Impacts on Pelagic and Planktonic Ecosystems 237

3. Conclusion and Summary of Key Indicators 246

References 248

13. Changes in Coral Reef Ecosystems as an Indicator

of Climate and Global Change

M. J. Attrill

1. Introduction 253

2. Tropical Coral Reef Ecosystems 254

3. The Associated Fauna of Coral Reefs 258

4. Conclusion 260

References 260

14. Changes in Marine Biodiversity as an Indicator

of Climate Change

B. Worm and H. K. Lotze

1. Introduction 263

2 . Climate Change and the Oceans 264

3. Effects of Climate Change on Biodiversity 265

4. Cumulative Impacts and Indirect Effects of Climate

Change 272

5. Biodiversity as Insurance against Climate Change

Impacts 274

Contents QĐ

6 . Conclusions 275

References 276

15. Intertidal Indicators of Climate and Global Change

N. Mieszkowska

1. Introduction 281

2. Climate Change and Biogeography 283

3. Mechanisms 289

4. Additional Impacts of Global Change 291

5. Conclusions 292

References 292

16. Plant Ecology as an indicator of Climate and Global

Change

M. D. M orecroft and s. A. Keith

1. Introduction 297

2. Changes in Phenology 299

3. Changes in Distribution 300

4. Community Composition 301

5. Plant Growth 302

6. Conclusions 303

References 304

17. The Impact of Climate and Global Change on Crop

Production

c . R. Dixon

1. Introduction 307

2. Impact on Plant Growth and Reproduction 308

3. Scale of the Problems 313

4. Climate Change Models 314

5. Winners and Losers 315

6. Adaptation 320

References 322

18. Rising Sea Levels as an Indicator of Global Change

R. Gehrels

1. Introduction 325

2. Is Sea Level Rising? 325

3. W hy is Sea Level Rising? 328

4. Are Contemporary Rates of Sea-level Rise Unusual? 333

5. Conclusion 334

References 334

CD Contents

19. Sea Temperature Change as an Indicator of Global

Change

M. J. A ttrill

1. Introduction: Role of Ocean, Mechanisms and Correction of Bias 337

2. Long-Term Trends in Sea Temperature: The Historical Context 341

3. Global and Regional Patterns of Sea Temperature over the Last

100-150 Years 343

4. Conclusion: Anthropogenic Influence 345

References 346

20. Ocean Current Changes as an Indicator of Global Change

T. Kanzow and M. Visbeck

1. Introduction 349

2. The Variable Ocean 350

3. Oceanographers' Tools 351

4. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 353

5. The AMOC's Role in Heat Transport, Oceanic Uptake of Carbon

and Ventilation of the Deep Ocean 357

6 . Can we Detect Changes in the AMOC? Is the AMOC Changing

Already? 361

7. Conclusion 362

References 364

21 ệ Ocean Acidification as an Indicator for Climate Change

c. Turley and H. s. Findlay

1. Introduction 367

2. Evidence from Observations 370

3. Model Predictions of Future Change 374

4. Impacts 3 74

5. Biogeochemical Cycling and Feedback to Climate 381

6 . Adaptation, Recovery and Mitigation 383

7. Conclusion 385

References 387

22. Ice Sheets: Indicators and Instruments of Climate Change

D. c . Vaughan

1. Introduction

2. Sea-level and Ice

3. How Ice Sheets Work

4. Summary

391

391

394

398

399 References

23. Lichens as an Indicator of Climate and Global Change

A. A ptroot

1. Introduction 401

2. Predicted Effects 402

3. Observed Effects 402

4. Uncertain Effects 403

5. Habitats with Vulnerable Lichens 405

6. Conclusion 407

References 408

24. Coastline Degradation as an Indicator of Global Change

R. J. N icholls, c. W oodroffe and V. Burkett

1. Introduction 409

2. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Systems 411

3. Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise 412

4. Increasing Human Utilisation of the Coastal Zone 413

5. Climate Change, Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts 415

6 . Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change 416

7. Global Warming and Coasts at Latitudinal Extremes 418

8 . The Challenge to Understand Contemporary Impacts 420

9. Concluding Remarks 421

References 422

25. Plant Pathogens as Indicators of Climate Change

K. A. Garrett, M. Nita, E. D. De Wolf, L. Gomez and A. H. Sparks

1. Introduction 425

2. Climate Variables and Plant Disease 426

3. Evidence that Simulated Climate Change Affects Plant Disease

in Experiments 430

4. Evidence that Plant Disease Patterns have Changed due to

Climate Change 431

References 436

Contents ( xi )

Index 439

Foreword

The 2007 Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

drew two substantially new conclusions which have had a marked effect on

policymakers. The first was that current climate change is ‘unequivocal’ and

is due largely to emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity.

The second was that the effects of this observed global wanning can

now be detected on every continent in the form of altered hydrology and

biology. The positive response by policymakers was due not only to the

higher levels of certainty surrounding the issue, but that empirically observed

evidence now supported the simulation modelling of the future that had gen￾erally characterised the previous three IPCC assessments. Now, the policy￾makers could say, we are beginning to see come true just what the scientists

had been predicting.

The concreteness of that case is examined in great detail in this book. Its

chapters on the various processes that may affect the world’s climate and on

the detected changes in atmospheric, ocean and terrestrial (especially

biological) systems serve to unfold this scientific narrative for the reader.

But the book’s strength lies in this not just being a summary of the IPCC

because many of its authors were not involved extensively in the 2007 assess￾ment, and thus they are able both to evaluate afresh the nature of the evidence

and to bring new perspectives to bear on the issue.

As the editor says in his Introduction, if there ever was doubt about

climate change then this should be dispelled in this book. I would add that

if there ever was a case to be made for action, then this case has been made

here in this volume and others like it which has followed the IPCC 2007

assessment. It is clear that stringent and immediate action is needed to curb

greenhouse emissions and that we also need to start, now, on building our

capacity to adapt to climate change impacts. It will take both massive mitiga￾tion and adaptation to meet the challenge of climate change.

Martin Parry

Visiting Professor,

Centre fo r Environmental Policy,

Imperial College London

Co-Chair Working Group II Assessment on Impacts,

Adaptation and Vulnerability,

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007