Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

This page intentionally left blank

Climate Change: GLOBAL Risks, Challenges

and Decisions

This book provides an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to climate change, from

the fundamental science of the climate system to the approaches and actions needed to deal

with the challenge.

This broad synthesis is unique in that the topics dealt with range from the basic sci￾ence documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments

and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and

cultural issues constraining the societal response to climate change are also discussed.

As scientific evidence and understanding accumulate, it becomes ever more convincing

that the global climate system is moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within

which human civilisations have developed and thrived. The good news is that many of the

tools and approaches necessary to deal effectively with climate change already exist. The

challenge of the twenty-first century is to integrate these instruments into the development

trajectories of contemporary societies. This book provides a handbook for those who want

to understand and contribute to meeting this challenge.

The book covers a very wide range of disciplines: core biophysical sciences involved

with climate change (geosciences, atmospheric sciences, ocean sciences, and ecology/

biology) as well as economics, political science, health sciences, institutions and govern￾ance, sociology, ethics and philosophy, and engineering. As such it will be invaluable for

a wide range of researchers and professionals wanting a cutting-edge synthesis of climate

change issues, and for advanced student courses on climate change.

The book was written by a team of authors led by Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen

and Diana Liverman. Additional authors are Terry Barker, Frank Jotzo, Daniel M.

Kammen, Rik Leemans, Timothy M. Lenton, Mohan Monasinghe, Balgis Osman-Elasha,

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nicholas Stern, Coleen Vogel and Ole Wæver.

katherine richardson is Vice-Dean at the Faculty of Science at the University of

Copenhagen and Professor in Biological Oceanography. She has been active both as a

member and chairman of several national and international research committees and advi￾sory bodies including the scientific steering committee of the International Geosphere￾Biosphere Programme. She is Chairman of the Danish Government’s Commission on

Climate Change Policy. She was also chairman of the Scientific Steering Committee for the

international scientific congress Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions.

The focus of her research is carbon cycling in the ocean and how changing climate con￾ditions influence biodiversity in the ocean and the ability of biological processes in the

ocean to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Richardson has authored over 75 scientific

publications and a large number of popular scientific works, including Our Threatened

Oceans (2009, Haus Publishing; with Stefan Rahmstorf).

will steffen is Executive Director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian

National University (ANU), Canberra, and is also Science Adviser, Department of Climate

Change and Energy Efficiency Australian Government. From 1998 to mid-2004, he served

as Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, based in

Stockholm, Sweden. His research interests span a broad range within the fields of climate

change and Earth System science, with an emphasis on incorporation of human processes

in Earth System modelling and analysis; and on sustainability, climate change and the

Earth System.

Both Will Steffen and Katherine Richardson were authors on the book Global Change

and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure (2004, Springer).

diana liverman holds appointments at the University of Arizona (where she directs

the Institute of the Environment) and Oxford University (working with the Environmental

Change Institute). Her main research interests include climate impacts, vulnerability and

adaptation, and climate policy, especially the role of the developing world and non-state

actors in both mitigation and adaptation. She has written numerous books and articles on

the environment, climate and development and advised government, business and NGOs on

climate issues. Currently she chairs the scientific advisory committee of the International

Global Environmental Change and Food Security Program, co-chairs the US National

Academies panel on Informing America’s Climate Choices and edits the Annual Review of

Environment and Resources.

Climate Change: Global Risks,

Challenges and Decisions

Katherine Richardson

University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Will Steffen

Australian National University, Canberra

Diana Liverman

University of Arizona and University of Oxford

and

Terry Barker, Frank Jotzo, Daniel M. Kammen, Rik Leemans, Timothy M. Lenton,

Mohan Munasinghe, Balgis Osman-Elasha, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nicholas Stern,

Coleen Vogel, Ole Wæver

With contributions to chapters by

Myles R. Allen, Giles Atkinson, Marilyn Averill, Jonathan Bamber, Paul M. Barker, Jørgen Bendtsen, Pam

Berry, Roberto Bertollini, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Edward Blandford, Sarah G. Bonham, Niel H. A. Bowerman,

Maxwell Boykoff, Ronald D. Brunner, Gregory Buckman, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Josep G. Canadell,

Benjamin Cashore, Lynda Chambers, Nakul Chettrin, John A. Church, Kerry H. Cook, Paul Crutzen, Dorthe

Dahl-Jensen, Peter Dann, Simon Dietz, Catia M. Domingues, Harry Dowsett, S. S. Drijfhout, Jeff R. Dunn,

Hallie Eakin, Thomas Elmqvist, Matthew England, Polly Ericksen, Kirsten Findell, Jean-Pierre Gattuso,

Mette Kildegaard Graversen, Nicolas Gruber, Stephen J. Hall, Christian Pilegaard Hansen, Alan M. Haywood,

Kieran P. Helm, Jennifer Helgeson, Cameron Hepburn, Daniel J. Hill, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Larry Horowitz,

John Ingram, Arne Jacobson, Chris D. Jones, Peter Kanowski, Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Lance Kim,

Brigitte Knopf, Niels Elers Koch, Katrine Krogh Andersen, Paul Leadly, Hiram Levy II, Valerie N. Livina,

Jason Lowe, Jens Friis Lund, Daniel J. Lunt, Amanda H. Lynch, Ariel Macaspac Penetrante, Omar Masera,

Constance Mcdermott, Warwick J. McKibbin, Anthony J. McMichael, Anders Melin, Kevin J. Noone, Jørgen E.

Olesen, Jisung Park, Donald Perovich, Per F. Peterson, Jonathan Pickering, Stefan Rahmstorf, V. Ramaswamy,

Michael R. Raupach, Leanne Renwick, Johan Rockström, Dominic Roser, Minik Rosing, Håkon Sælen, Ulrich

Salzmann, Marko Scholze, Thomas Schneider Von Deimling, M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, Frances Seymour,

Eklabya Sharma, Drew Shindell, Pete Smith, David A. Stainforth, Konrad Steffen, Martin Stendel, Hanne

Strager, Carol Turley, Chris Turney, Paul J. Valdes, S. L. Weber, Neil J. White, Susan E. Wijffels, Mark

Williams, Peter J. Wood, Jan Zalasiewicz, Robert J. Zomer

cambridge university press

Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,

Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City

Cambridge University Press

The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

www.cambridge.org

Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521198363

© Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen and Diana Liverman 2011

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,

no reproduction of any part may take place without the written

permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2011

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data

Richardson, Katherine, 1954-

Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions/ Katherine Richardson,

Will Steffen, Diana Liverman; additional authors, Terry Barker [and ten others];

with contributions to chapters by Myles R. Allen [and many others].

p. cm

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-521-19836-3

1. Climatic changes. 2. Climatic changes – Government policy. I. Title.

QC903.R48 2011

363.738´74–dc22 2010042731

ISBN 978-0-521-19836-3 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or

accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in

this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is,

or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

To the memory of climate scientist Steve Schneider (1945–2010),

a committed climate change communicator and important mentor to many

whose work is represented in this book.

vii

Writing team page ix

Foreword xv

Preface xvii

List of acronyms and abbreviations xix

Part I Climatic trends

1 Identifying, monitoring and predicting change in the climate system 3

2 The oceans and the climate system 30

3 Sea-level rise and ice-sheet dynamics 50

4 Carbon cycle trends and vulnerabilities 75

Part II Defining ‘dangerous climate change’

5 The impact of climate change on human societies 101

6 Impacts of climate change on the biotic fabric of the planet 134

7 Tipping elements: jokers in the pack 163

8 Linking science and action: targets, timetables and emission budgets 202

Part III Equity issues

9 The equity challenge and climate policy: responsibilities, vulnerabilities

and inequality in the response to climate change 229

10 A long-term perspective on climate change: values and ethics 260

Part IV Mitigation and adaptation approaches

11 Low-carbon energy technologies as mitigation approaches 281

12 Economic approaches and instruments 317

Contents

viii Contents

13 Geopolitics and governance 344

14 Adapting to the unavoidable 388

Part V Meeting the challenge

15 Integrating adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development 415

16 Mobilising the population 451

17 The human–Earth relationship: past, present and future 472

Index 494

Colour plate section between pages 298 and 299.

ix

Professor Katherine Richardson (lead author)

Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate

Faculty of Science

University of Copenhagen

Tagensvej 16 DK-2200 Copenhagen

Denmark

Professor Will Steffen (lead author)

ANU Climate Change Institute

Coombs Extension

The Australian National University

Canberra

ACT 0200

Australia

Professor Diana Liverman (lead author)

Institute of the Environment

The University of Arizona

PO Box 210158b

Tucson

Arizona 85721

USA

and

Institute of the Environment

Oxford University

OXI 3QY

UK

Writing team

x Writing team

Dr Terry Barker

Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research

Department of Land Economy

University of Cambridge

19 Silver Street

Cambridge

CB3 9EP

UK

Dr Frank Jotzo

Research Fellow

Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies

The Australian National University

Coombs Building

Canberra

ACT 0200

Australia

Professor Daniel M. Kammen

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL)

University of California, Berkeley

4152 Etcheverry Hall

Berkeley, CA 94720–1731

USA

Professor Rik Leemans

Environmental Systems Analysis Group

Wageningen University

Droevendaalsesteeg 4

PO Box 47

6700AA WAGENINGEN

The Netherlands

Professor Timothy M. Lenton

School of Environmental Sciences

University of East Anglia

Norwich NR4 7TJ

UK

Professor Mohan Munasinghe

Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND)

10/1, De Fonseka Place

Colombo 5

Sri Lanka

Writing team xi

Dr Balgis Osman-Elasha

Climate Change Unit

Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources

HCENR – Gamaa Street- Khartoum /Sudan

Khartoum, 10488

Sudan

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

P.O. Box 60 12 03

14412 Potsdam

Germany

Professor Nicholas Stern

Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines

London School of Economics and Political Science

Houghton Street

London WC2A 2AE

UK

Professor Coleen Vogel

School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies

University of the Witwatersrand

1 Jan Smuts Avenue

Private Bag 3 Wits

2050 Johannesburg

South Africa

Professor Ole Wæver

Center for Advanced Security Theory

Department of Political Science

University of Copenhagen

Øster Farimagsgade 5

1353 Copenhagen K

Denmark

Contributors: expert boxes

Myles R. Allen, Oxford University

Giles Atkinson, London School of Economics

Marilyn Averill, University of Colorado at Boulder

Jonathan Bamber, Bristol University

Paul M. Barker, CSIRO

Jørgen Bendtsen, VitusLab Denmark

xii Writing team

Pam Berry, Oxford University

Roberto Bertollini, World Health Organization

Nathaniel L. Bindoff, University of Tasmania

Edward Blandford, University of California, Berkeley

Sarah G. Bonham, Leeds University

Niel H. A. Bowerman, Oxford University

Maxwell Boykoff, University of Colorado

Ronald D. Brunner, University of Colorado

Gregory Buckman, Australian National University

Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, World Health Organization

Josep G. Canadell, CSIRO

Benjamin Cashore, Yale University

Lynda Chambers, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Nakul Chettrin, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

John A. Church, CSIRO

Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas at Austin

Paul Crutzen, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie

Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, University of Copenhagen

Peter Dann, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Australia

Simon Dietz, London School of Economics

Catia M. Domingues, CSIRO

Harry Dowsett, U.S. Geological Survey

S. S. Drijfhout, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut

Jeff R. Dunn, CSIRO

Hallie Eakin, Arizona State University

Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University

Matthew England, University of New South Wales

Polly Ericksen, Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi

Kirsten Findell, NOAA

Jean-Pierre Gattuso, l’Observatoire Océanologique de Villefranche-sur-Mer

Mette Kildegaard Graversen, Fødevareøkonomisk Institut

Nicolas Gruber, ETH Zurich

Stephen J. Hall, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

Christian Pilegaard Hansen, Copenhagen University

Alan M. Haywood, Leeds University

Kieran P. Helm, University of Tasmania

Jennifer Helgeson, London School of Economics

Cameron Hepburn, Oxford University

Daniel J. Hill, British Geological Survey

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland

Larry Horowitz, NOAA

John Ingram, Oxford University

Writing team xiii

Arne Jacobson, Humboldt State University

Chris D. Jones, Met Office UK

Peter Kanowski, Australian National University

Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Finland Future Research Centre, Turku School of Economics

Lance Kim, University of California, Berkeley

Brigitte Knopf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Niels Elers Koch, University of Copenhagen

Katrine Krogh Andersen, Danish Meterological Institute

Paul Leadly, Université Paris-Sud 11

Hiram Levy II, NOAA

Valerie N. Livina, University of East Anglia

Jason Lowe, Met Office UK

Jens Friis Lund, University of Copenhagen

Daniel J. Lunt, Bristol University

Amanda H. Lynch, Monash University

Ariel Macaspac Penetrante, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Omar Masera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Constance McDermott, Oxford University

Warwick J. McKibbin, Australian National University

Anthony J. McMichael, Australian National University

Anders Melin, Lund University

Kevin J. Noone, ITM Stockholms Universitet

Jørgen E. Olesen, University of Aarhus

Jisung Park, Oxford University

Donald Perovich, US Army Corps of Engineers

Per F. Peterson, University of California, Berkeley

Jonathan Pickering, Australian National University

Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

V. Ramaswamy, NOAA

Michael R. Raupach, CSIRO

Leanne Renwick, Phillip Island Nature Parks

Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute

Dominic Roser, University of Zurich

Minik Rosing, University of Copenhagen

Håkon Sælen, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research

Ulrich Salzmann, British Antarctic Survey

Marko Scholze, Bristol University

Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research

M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, NOAA

Frances Seymour, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

Eklabya Sharma, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Drew Shindell, NASA