Việt Nam chuyển sang cơ chế tỷ giá hối đoái phù hợp hơn

I HOAT OONG NGAN HANG NAIVI 2015, DtNH HUONG NAM 2016 ' 61

M

ay nam gan day,

Ngdn hang Nhd nude

(NHNN) thudng cd

cam ket ddm bdo Viet Nam Ddng

(VND) khdng mdt gia qua 2 -

3% so vdi ndm trudc. Viec tuyen

bd nay tao ra "neo danh nghTa"

cho VND. Theo "neo" nay, thi

trudng dd cd ky vpng ve ty gid

va miic nii ro duoc xdc dinh

trudc; cdc thdng diep dupe phdt

di lien tuc cimg vdi viec NHNN

hdp thu dupe mpt lupng dy trir

ngoai hdi ldn ciing da cho ket

qua rdt rd rang la VND duoc

dn dinh hda cung vdi uy tin ciia

NHNN dupe khang dinh. Trong

dieu kien hien nay, cung vdi kinh

nghiem vd uy tin ciia NHNN, cd

the nhdn dinh rang, ndm 2016, ty

gid vdn ndm tiong tdm kiem sodt

tot; vd viec chuyen sang mpt co

che dieu hdnh ty gid mdi tu ddu

nam 2016 Id can thiet do yeu cdu

thyc te dang dat ra. Tic ndi dung

Quylt dinh sd 2730/QD-NHNN

ngdy 31/12/2015 (se neu dudi

ddy), cho thdy NHNN da dua ty

gid vdo he thdng gid cd ndi chung

d Viet Nam hoat dpng theo ca

che thi trudng thyc sy hon; vd

dac biet, ca che ndy ciing se dua

cdc doanh nghiep trong nude vdo

moi trudng ty gid thi trudng binh

dang hon vd minh bach hon.

1. Ty gia va cd ciie ty gia hoi

floai cua Viet Nam

7.7. Diin biin ty gid hdi dodi

gan day

Co the nhdn thdy, ty gid hdi

dodi vd cdc vdn de lien quan

tiong vdi ndm gan day vd ndm

2015 da duoc NHNN kilm soat

tdt tien gdc dp chu ddng vd pham

vi du rdng d tam vT md. Hay cd

thi ndi rdng, "VND hong tdm

tay NHNN", cho du cdn khdng

it tid ngai va thdch thiic. Mac

du CO quan chiic ndng da phdt

© TAPCHiNGANHANG I 50 3+4 I THANG 2/2016

VIET NAM CHUYEN SANG CK CHE

lYGIAHDiDDAIPHIiHiniHim

^ThS. Li Van Hinh *

di thdng diep duy tii miic giao

ddng ty gid khdng qud 2% nhu

cdc ndm trudc, nhung trudc dien

biln thyc tl, NHNN da to ra linh

hoat ban vd manh dan dieu chinh

ty gia VND ngay khi ddng Nhan

ddn te (CNY) pha gid vdo thdng

8/2015.

Theo ddnh gid ciia Ngan hdng

Thi gidi (WB) qua D I thi 1,

Dd thi 2, sau mdt giai doan bien

dpng ty gia vdo thang 8/2015,

ty gid dd dn dinh lai dang ke va

vdo thdi diem cudi nam 2015,

VND lai len gid ddi chiit (ttcc

la ty gia VND so vdi Dd la My

(USD) gidm), dieu ma nhiing

nam trudc khdng he dien ra.

Thyc te, tinh tiang ddn mat niem

tin vdo be thdng ngdn hang hay

vdo VND nhu tiidi dilm 10/2010

da khdng xdy ra. Theo mdt sd

chuyen gia, mdt hong nhiing

nguyen nhdn Id do uy tin vd nang

lyc can thiep ngoai hdi hay kinh

nghiem chinh sach ciia NHJiJ|

dupe cai thien hon rdt nhi^

(Dd tiii 1)

Vdo thdi diem cudi ndm 2015,

dir lieu thdng ke cho thdy, voi co

che ty gia tuong ung, VND vin

tiong tdm kiem sodt; tuy nhien,

NHNN da bet siic no luc va kien

dinh vdi muc tieu ty gid dn dinh,

cd sy Imh hoat phu hpp vdi di&i

biln thi trudng tdi chinh qudc t^,

nhat la sy bien ddng eiia dong

CNY hay lai sudt cua Fed. Ro,

rang va thyc te gdn day cho fl

vdi CO che ty gia cii, gid tri >

chiu sy tac dpng rat ldn bdi sy Im

gid cua USD khi Fed tdng lai sils

vd bien dpng cua CNY - mpt doi

tac thuong mai ldn ciia Viet N ^

(nam 2015, Viet Nam thdm hut

thuang mai khodng 3,4 ty USD

vdi Trung Qudc).

Thuc tl cho thdy, ngay tai thai

diem Cue Dy trii lien bang My

(Fed) tang lai sudt tir 0% lea

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

Do thi 1: VND van di/oc danh gia cao so vdi cac dong tien khac " ^

C h i so: "12/2013 "

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(Ngiidn. WB va NHNN, 20Iij