Tourism expert perceptions for evaluating climate change impacts on the euro-mediterranean tourism industry

Tourism expert perceptions for evaluating

climate change impacts on the

Euro-Mediterranean tourism industry

Josep-Francesc Valls and Rafael Sarda´

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse perceptions among European tourism experts

specialising in tourism planning regarding the impact that climate change may have on tourism

management.

Design/methodology/approach – The methodology used was the double convergent Delphi Method.

A total of 70 European experts in tourism planning were surveyed to determine their opinions. Two focus

groups of experts were organised, first to fine-tune the questionnaire before implementing the Delphi

method and, second, to check the results afterwards.

Findings – The most noteworthy findings expressed were: climate change has already begun; life in the

forthcoming decades will be subject to constant uncertainty; there is a clear perception of responsibility;

there is a reluctance to accept repressive taxation but support for renewable energy incentives; and

there is a call for responsible growth based on integrated destination management, public-private

co-responsibility and the application of mitigation/adaptation measures. Additionally, climate change is

already threatening tourist enterprises, and an efficient integrated management system in companies

and tourist destinations will be required to cope with its negative effects.

Research limitations/implications – The limits of this research are those inherent in the Delphi method

itself, which is highly opinion-based. To reduce this, the sample was broadened to include 70

interviewees instead of the 30 traditionally used.

Practical implications – The practical implications lie in offering an exploratory vision of climate

change from experts’ perception; their outlook considerably broadens the field of reflection.

Originality/value – Additionally, the value of the paper is to allow discussion on the perception of

experts in tourism planning regarding climate change in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

Keywords Tourism, Delphi method, Europe

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

The increase in the greenhouse effect on the Earth – and the resulting climate change this is

causing – is the most important environmental challenge to emerge at the dawn of the

twenty-first century, together with the increase in world population. The tourist industry has

recently acknowledged the great dependence of tourist activities on climate patterns (Viner

and Agner, 1999; Maddison, 2001; Lise and Tol, 2002; Hamilton et al., 2005a, b; Scott et al.,

2005, 2008; Go´mez Martı´n, 2005; Go¨ssling and Hall, 2005; Go¨ssling et al., 2005; Go¨ssling

and Hall, 2006; Bigano et al., 2006, 2007; Patterson et al., 2006). Climate becomes an

essential factor when defining the destination setting and when describing tourist

expectations (Berritella et al., 2006). Climate is also a highly influential factor when

drawing up holiday calendars. It is related to leisure activities, it influences the sensation of

safety due to effects on health, and is an essential variable in a tourist’s sense of well-being

and satisfaction. For all these reasons, climate is often put forward as a tourist attraction of a

given destination or as the essential variable of the destination. Smith (1990) pointed out in a

classic study how the choice of Mediterranean tourist destinations by English tourists

DOI 10.1108/16605370910963518 VOL. 64 NO. 2 2009, pp. 41-51, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1660-5373 j TOURISM REVIEW j PAGE 41

Josep-Francesc Valls is in

the Department of

Marketing Management,

ESADE Business School,

Barcelona, Spain; and

Rafael Sarda´ is at the

Centre d’Estudis Avanc¸ats

de Blanes, CSIC, Blanes,

Girona, Spain.

Received: 1 October 2008

Revised: 29 December 2008

Accepted: 5 January 2009

The authors are deeply grateful

to all expert respondents of

their Delphi survey, as well as to

the panel members of the two

focus groups. This work was

supported partially by the

National project

CGL2006-13953-C04/BOS.