Tổng quan kinh tế Việt Nam năm 2010 và dự báo năm 2011

TON G QUA N KIN H T E VIE T NA M NA M 201 0

V A DL / BA O NA M 201 1

BAN PHAN TICH VA PL/ BAO

Trung tdm Thdng tin va Da bao kinh te - xd hdi guoc gia

In 2010, Vietnam gained

recordable economic achieve￾ments with many planned targets

being accomplished and

exceeded. Several features in

economic developments in 2010

can be described as follows:

economic quarterly growth rates

were steadily higher; develop￾ment investment capital

remained high; trade deficit was

controlled in line with planned

target; however, inflation still

highly Increased and was hard

to be restrained; there was lack

of consistencies and coordina￾tion between fiscal and mone￾tary policies...

Based on analyses of interna￾tional as well as domestic condi￾tions, Department of Macro

Analysis and Forecast under

National Center for Socio-eco￾nomic Information and Forecast

provides forecasts on several

macro economic indicators for

2011 as follows: GDP growth rate

Is estimated at 7-7.5%; inflation is

expected to be controlled at sin￾gle digit; trade deficit is predict￾ed to be restrained at 13 billion

USD; ratio of total social saving

per GDP is estimated at 31%... In

2011, directions for macro regu￾lation are suggested as follows:

to strictly manage FDI inflows; to

concentrate on improving invest￾ment efficiency; to tighten fiscal

policy and closely control over

borrowing activities of public

sector; to address shortcomings

in managing state budget.

1. Tong quan kinh te Viet Nam nim 2010

a. Tdc do tang tudng kinh te tang dan qua cac quy

Nam 2010, tdc do tang trudng cac quy deu cao hon cung ky nam

2009. Tfnh chung ca nam 2010, tang trQdng tdng san pham qudc npi

(GDP) dat 6,78%; tang 1,46 diem % so vdi nam 2009.

Tdc do tang trudng GDP Viet Nam giai doan 2008-2010

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

v

7.38

5.98

5.85

7.34

3.14

' *p J** J& <Sf* N<£ N ^ Ns£ N«f*

# # -# of ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ N

^ ^ s

- TSng trUdng GDP phia cau: Trong co cau GDP phia cau, tieu dung

cudi cung ludn chiem ty le ldn nhat, trong dd, tieu dung tu nhan chie'm

tdi tren 60% GDP, giQ vai trd dong life tang trQdng kinh te. Nam 2010,

tdng mQc ban le hang hda va dich vu tieu dung theo gia thpc te tang

24,5% so vdi cung ky nam trQdc (tang 14% neu loai trQ yeu td gia). Ty

le tich luy tai san cd xu hudng tang dan, chiem khoing 29% GDP. TQ

nam 1 995 tdi nay, tieu dung tQ nhan va tich luy tai san la ddng Ipc

chfnh cua tang trudng GDP. Mac du la mdt nQdc tang trudng dpa vao

xuat khau nhQng can can thQong mai cua Viet Nam lien tuc tham hut

nen xua't khau rdng thudng cd ddng gdp am.

- TSng trudng GDP tii phia cung: Khu vUc ndng nghiep tang 2,78%, ddng

gdp 0,47 diem % vao tang trQdng GDP; cdng nghiep va xay dpng tang 7,7%,

ddng gdp 3,2 diem %; va dich vu tang 7,52%, ddng gdp 3,11 diem %.

THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 61+62 (1.2011)