Tổng quan kinh tế Việt Nam 2008 và triển vọng 2009

TAICHINHVIMO ( So 1(66)-2009 )

T6ng quan kinh te Viet Nam 2008 va trik vong 2009

Nhirng dgng thai kinh te chii

yeu nam 2008.

Nam 2008 se dugc ghi nhdn

trong lich sii' phdt trien kinh te

Viet Nam va ca The Gidi nhu mdt

ndm that ddc biet vdi su hdi tu va

ddn nen den dinh diem ciia nhiJng

khd khdn todn dien khach quan va

chii quan, trong nudc va nudc

ngodi, con ngudi va thien nhien,

ciing nhting ddng thdi thj trudng

trdi sut cdng thdng ddy kjch tinh.

cung nhu nhieu quyet djnh bdt

thudng trong qudn ly kinh te vT

md...Dac biet, kinh te Viet Nam

ndm 2008 chiing kien nhieu ky

luc nhdt trong vdng hon muai

nam trd lai ddy, md ndi bat la:

Thir nhat, tdc do lam phat va

mirc nhdp sieu cao nhdt: mirc

lam phdt cd nam so vdi thdng

12/2007 udc khoang 24%o, cao

nhdt ke tii- nam 1992 trd lai ddy.

Nhdp khdu hang hod udc tinh ca

ndm 2008 la 84 ty USD, so vdi

tdijg xudt khdu la 65 ty USD, tuc

nhdp sieu cd nam udc khoang 19

ty USD, tdng ban 70%) so vdi

nam 2007 vd gap 2,5 ldn ndm

2005. Ddc biet, dang dam ddn

mdt sd khuynh hudng dang lo

ngai ma chiing ta it de y, dd la

nhdp va se nhdp ca nhu'ng mat

hang tudng la the manh xudt

khdu, nhu nguyen lieu thiiy san.

mudi, gao, ngd, ga, Ign, gd, thdm

chi ca rau xanh, tam tre. chieu

triic..., trong khi kim ngach xudt

khdu ciia khu vuc kinh te cd vdn

ddu tu nudc ngoai khdng cao

nhu mong dgi (tinh chung trong

cd 3 nam 2006-2008, xuat khdu

eiia khu vuc nay mdi dat 58,7 ty

USD, tu'c khoang 55%) so vdi

muctieudlratu'2006-2010);

Thir hai, tdc do tang trudng

kinhte chdm lai dangke: GDP ca

nam udc tang 6,6-7% (quy md

nen kinh te khoang 89 ty USD,

tuc dat ban 1000 USD/ ngudi),

trong dd gia trj san xudt cdng

nghiep udc tang 16,2%) va gid trj

gia tang chi tang khoang 9,4-

9,6%o, tii'c tdc do tdng gid trj khu

cdng nghiep va xdy dung nam

2008 udc se gidm siit khd ldn, chi

dat 7,3-7,5%o - ddy la mirc tang

thap nhdt trong vdng 17 ndm

qua; khu vuc djch vu cd miic

tdng trudng dn djnh ban, udc ca

nam dat 7,2-7,8%, nhung cung

thap hon so vdi miic 8,29%o ciia

nam 2006 vd 8,68%) ciia nam

2007. Thj trudng chirng khodn

trong nam bao triim khdng khi tri

tre bode tut doc, thj trudng bat

ddng sdn trdm ldng, thj trudng

tin dung-tien te cang thdng... Du

ng Chinh phii, bao gdm ca ng

Trdi phieu Chinh phii tinh din

TS. Nguyin Minh Phong

cudi nam 2008 udc bdng 33,5%

GDP, du ng nudc ngoai ciia qude

gia bdng 27,2%o GDP. Tdng thu

ndi dja chi dat 51%) so vdi muc

tieu ke hoach de ra Id 59-60%.

Ngudn thu NSNN chii yeu mdi

ddp irng nhu cdu chi thudng

xuyen, cdn phdn tich luy cho chi

dau tu phat trien chu yeu dua vdo

vdn vay cua NSNN de bii dap bdi

chi va thu tii- sii- dung ddt. Ty le

huy ddng vdn dau tu toan xd hgi

ndm 2008 udc dat 39%, thdp ban

so vdi mirc 42,3% nam 2006 va

45,6%) cua nam 2007 (trong dd

vdn ddu tu til- NSNN trung binh

trong 3 nam qua la 21,1% tdng

vdn ddu tu xa hdi). Ndm 2008

tdng phuang tien thanh todn udc

tang 16-18%) , tong du ng cho

vay nen kinh te tang dudi 30%,

tdc do tang lugng tien mat ngoai

ngdn hang khoang 40%) ( so vdi

muc 17%) nam 2006), huy ddng

vdn vao ngan hang gidm manh,

chi tang khoang 13%o (so vdi

45,8%) nam 2007), ty trgng tiln

gili ky ban tren 1 nam mdi cd

30%o, tren 50%) vdn ndi te ngdn

ban dimg de cho vay trung vd ddi

ban...

Thir ba, mdi trudng ddu tu

sdn xudt-kinh doanh bj "nhieu"

va gidm siic canh tranh bdi cac

can thiep phi thj trudng (can

thiep hanh chinh true tiep gia

tang, dien hinh la ve gid xdng

dau, ve xudt khdu gao vd sdt thep,

ve ty gid va ve lai suat tin dung.

Tap chf nghien cdu Tdi chfnh ke'todn