Thế nào là

NGHIE N CQ U CHIN H SAC H

T H E NA O L A "BA Y TH U NHA P TRUN G BiNH" ?

VU TRUNG DIEN

Dqi hqc Kyoto. Nhat Ban

Recently, the concept "middle income trap" has been much referred

by mass media as well as attracted attention of domestic and interna￾tional economists. Clarifying the concept "middle income trap" and iden￾tifying ways to escape middle income trap have also been paid special

attention by developing countries.

Some East Asian economies have gained impressive economic

growth rates and joined high income country club by concentrating

efforts on developing and applying high technology like Japan, South

Korea, Singapore, Taiwan (China). Nevertheless, few economies have fall￾en into middle income trap like Malaysia. This is attributed to their heavy

dependence on foreign direct investment during industrialization process.

Vietnam has officially joined middle income nation group. However,

it also has to face not small number of challenges that are needed to be

solved in the long run to maintain high growth rate and avoid to fall into

middle income trap. Accordingly, it is advisable to implement following

solutions: to draw lessons from preceding countries; to renovate and

improve education and training system; to introduce priority policy over

efficient and dynamic enterprises...

T rong thdi gian gan day, khai niem "Biy thu nhap trung binh"

(BTNTB) duqc nhac den nhieu tren cac phuang tien thdng tin

dai chung, thu hut su quan tam, phan tich cua nhieu chuyen gia

kinh te trong nude va qudc te, nhieu phuang an cung da duac de xua't

de giup Viet Nam tranh duoc BTNTB. Bai viet dudi day se co gang

lam rd han khai niem BTNTB va de xua't mdt so giai phap de tranh

BTNTB.'"

1. Khai niem

Nhd nhdng tien bp ve giao thong va thong tin, ngay nay con ngddi

khdng can phai gap mat nhau trdc tiep de lam viec. Nhdng nddc phat

trien cd the cung ca'p cho thi trddng lao dpng dpi ngu quan ly, ky sd va

cac nha thie't ke cd trinh dp cao. Dong thdi, hp lai tiep can thi trddng

lao dpng gia re tai nhdng nddc ngheo, giup tang nang sua't lao ddng va

cho ra nhieu san pham hon vdi cung mpt lddng tai nguyen dau vao. Ldi

ich ma cac nddc giau thu dddc chinh la thu nhap cao cua ldc lddng lao

ddng cd trinh dp cao. Trong khi dd, cac nddc ngheo thu dddc Idi ich

nhd tang nang sua't lao dpng vdi

sd dng dung cdng nghe, thie't ke

va sd quan ly bai ban td cac nddc

giau. Thu nhap cua ldc lddng lao

dpng tay nghe tha'p cung ngay

cang tang. Day chinh la Idi the cd

dddc td toan cau hda.

Tuy nhien, khi phan tich qua

trinh phat trien kinh te tai cac

qud'c gia, mdt cau hdi dddc dat ra

la: Lieu cac nddc ngheo se bat kip

cac nddc giau hay khdng? Tren

thdc te, mpt sd' nddc da thanh

cdng. Trong an pham "Some

Macroeconomics in the 21st

Century" xua't ban nam 2000,

nha kinh te hpc Robert E. Lucas

(21

Jr da dda ra cau tra Idi cho cau

hdi nay la: "Cd, tat ca cac qudc

gia se trd nen giau cd vao nam...

2150". Theo Robert E. Lucas Jr,

khi cac cdng thdc cho tang trddng

dddc biet den, cac y tddng san

xua't cung nhd cdng nghe dddc lan

tda va dddc ap dung cho mpi qudc

gia tren the gidi, cac the ldc

chd'ng lai tien trinh phat tridn dd

se bi thd'ng tri bdi cac ldc lddng

kinh te. Thddng mai toan cau va

'"Tac < jia tran trong cdm an chuyen gia Bui

Trinh dd gdp y cho bdi viet ndy.

•" Doat gidi Nobel Kinh te ndm 1995

20 THONG TIN S. DL/ BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 63 (3.2011)