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Project Planning and Control

Project Planning and

Control

Fourth Edition

Eur Ing Albert Lester, CEng, FICE, FIMechE,

FIStructE, FAPM

AMSTERDAM BOSTON HEIDELBERG LONDON NEW YORK OXFORD

PARIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO

Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann

Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP

200 Wheeler Road, Burlington MA 01803

First published by Butterworth & Co (Publishers) Ltd 1982

Second edition published by Butterworth-Heinemann 1991

Third edition 2000

Fourth edition 2003

Copyright © 1982, 1991, 2000, 2003, Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

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A catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

ISBN 0 7506 5843 6

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Contents

Preface to the fourth edition vii

Preface to the third edition xi

Preface to the second edition xv

Preface to the first edition xvii

Foreword to the first edition xix

Acknowledgements xxi

1 Project definition 1

2 Business case 5

3 Organization structures 16

4 Project life cycles 20

5 Work breakdown structures (WBS) 25

6 Estimating 38

7 Project management plan 42

8 Risk management 46

9 Quality management 56

10 Change and configuration management 58

11 Basic network principles 65

12 Precedence or activity on node (AoN) diagrams 81

13 Lester diagram 88

14 Float 96

15 Arithmetical analysis 104

16 Graphical analysis, milestones and LoB 112

17 Computer analysis 127

18 Simple examples 135

19 Progress reporting 147

20 The case for manual analysis 156

21 Subdivision of blocks 165

22 Project management and planning 172

23 Network applications outside the construction industry 181

24 Networks and claims 196

25 Resource loading 203

26 Cash flow forecasting 211

27 Cost control and EVA 220

28 Worked examples 256

29 Example of integration of tools and techniques 289

30 Hornet Windmill 312

31 MS Project 98 339

32 Project close-out 351

33 Stages and sequence 353

34 Abbreviations and acronyms used in project management 359

Glossary 363

Bibliography 371

Index 377

vi

Contents

Preface to the fourth

edition

About a year ago I was asked by a firm of insurance loss adjusters to

investigate the possibility of reducing the anticipated overrun caused by an

explosion at a power station. Based on previous experience of similar

problems, I asked the contractors (a firm of international design and build

constructors) to let me examine the critical path network which formed the

basis of the computer-generated bar charts previously sent to the loss

adjusters. My objective was to see whether the original sequence of

construction activities could be rescheduled to mitigate the inevitable delays

caused by long lead times of replacements and in some cases redesign of the

damaged components.

To my dismay, I discovered that there was no network. The planners

inputted the data straight into the computer, based on very detailed established

modular packages. These packages contained the sequences, interrelationships

and durations of the constituent activities.

It is a fact that most commercial computer programs recommend such a

procedure. The planner can then see the program on the screen in bar chart

form as he/she proceeds, but will only obtain a network printout (in

precedence format) after the data has been processed. In other words the

network has become virtually redundant as it has not been used to develop the

structure of the project before the data was inputted.

This procedure turns network analysis on its head and does not give a

project team the ability to discuss and refine the interrelationships to give the

optimum results in terms of time and cost. The very act of communally

drafting and developing the network generates not only an understanding and

appreciation of the problems, but also enables the overall time to be reduced

to an acceptable level by maximizing parallel working without necessarily

Preface to the fourth edition

increasing resources and costs. It is for this reason that I have retained the

chapter setting out the case for manual analysis. Even in this age of the

universal use of the PC for just about every management and operational

function of an organization, the thinking process, i.e. the basic planning and

sequencing of a project cannot be left to a machine.

One of the by-products of computerization was the introduction of

precedence or AoN (activity on node) networks. These types of networks

seem to militate against manual drafting for large projects, because drawing

and filling in of the many node boxes is very time consuming, when compared

to the drafting of arrow or AoA (activity on arrow) diagrams.

However, the big advantage of the AoN diagram is the substitution of node

numbers by activity numbers. This clearly simplifies the numbering system

and enables activities to be added or changed without affecting the numbers

of the other activities. Indeed most computer programs add the activity

numbers automatically as the data is entered.

There is no reason therefore why a simplified form of AoN network cannot

be used in the manual drafting process to give the same benefit as an arrow

diagram. A selected number of the arrow (AoA) diagram examples given in

Chapters 12 and 18 have therefore been augmented by these simplified

precedence diagrams, in the hope that the important part of network analysis,

the initial drafting, will be carried out. Unfortunately the description of the

activities will have to be written into the nodes, which will usually reduce the

number of activities that can be accommodated on a sheet of paper when

compared with an arrow diagram. A ‘marriage’ of the two methods, called the

‘Lester’ diagram is given in Chapter 13.

At the time of writing, Earned Value Analysis (EVA) has still not been fully

embraced by certain sections of industry. One reason for this may be the jargon

associated with this technique. When we developed our own EVA system at

Foster Wheeler as far back as 1978 we used the simple terms of Actual Cost,

Planned Cost and Earned Value. Unfortunately the American CSCSC system

introduced such terms as ACWP, BCWS and BCWP which often generated

groans from students and rejection from practitioners. It is gratifying to note

therefore that the campaign to eradicate these abbreviations has prompted the

British Standards Institution and the Association for Project Management to give

prominence to the original English words. To encourage this welcome trend, the

terms used in EVA methods in this book are in English instead of jargon.

Since publication of the third edition, the APMP examination has

undergone a number of changes. In order to meet the new requirements for

viii

Preface to the fourth edition

ix

paper 2 of the examination, some new topics have been included in this

edition and a number of topics have been enhanced. However, no attempt has

been made to include the ‘soft’ topics such as team building and motivation,

which, while important, are really part of good general management and are

certainly not exclusive to project management.

A number of chapters have been rewritten and their order rearranged to

reflect as far as possible the sequence in which the various techniques are

carried out when managing a project.

A. Lester

Preface to the third edition

The shortest distance between two points is a straight line

Euclid

The longest distance between two points is a shortcut

Lester

The first two editions of this book dealt primarily with producing planning

networks and control systems for all types of projects, whether large or small,

complex or simple.

In the last two paragraphs of the second edition, reference was made to

other project management skills, emphasizing that planning and monitoring

systems were only part of the project manager’s armoury. The purpose of this

book, therefore, is to explain what some of these other parts are. It was not,

however, the intention to produce a comprehensive book on project

management, but merely to update the previous edition, adding such sections

as were considered to be more closely related to project management than

general management.

An examination of courses on project management will reveal that they

cover two types of skills:

1 Soft skills such as investment appraisal, communication, team selection,

team building, motivation, conflict management, meetings, configuration

management and quality management.

2 Hard skills such as project organization, project evaluation, project

planning, cost control, monitoring, risk management and change

management.

Preface to the third edition

As the first two editions already contained such hard skills as project planning

and cost control, it seemed logical to only add those skills which would

virtually turn the book into a Hard Skill Manual. This, it is hoped, will be of

maximum value to readers who have learnt the soft skills through past

experience or from the more general management courses including the

outward-bound management courses, so popular with up and coming

managers.

The original text has been updated where considered necessary, including

the list of the currently available project management software programs,

which are however being themselves updated constantly. One important

change is the substitution of the description of the Primavera P3 program by

the Hornet Windmill program. The reason for this change is that while

Primavera P3 is still an excellent project tool, the Hornet Windmill now

includes an integrated SMAC cost control system which can accept and print

both precedence and arrow diagrams and update progress on them directly and

automatically from the SMAC returns. Unfortunately, the stipulated book size

did not allow space for both, especially as the chapter on MS Project had to

be included, simply because after being ‘bundled’ with Microsoft Office, it is

now, despite its limitations, so widely used.

When the first edition was written in 1982, the use of arrow diagrams or

Activity on Arrow (AoA) diagrams was the generally used method of drafting

networks. By the time the second edition was published, precedence diagrams

or Activity on Node (AoN) diagrams were already well established, mainly

due to the proliferation of relatively inexpensive so called project manage￾ment computer programs. While AoN has a number of advantages over AoA,

it still has two serious drawbacks:

1 When producing the first draft of the network by hand, (something which

should always be done, especially on large projects), the AoN takes up

considerably more space and therefore restricts the size of network which

can be drawn on one sheet of A1 or A0 paper (the standard size of a CP

network).

2 When the network is subsequently reproduced by the computer, the links,

which are often drawn either horizontally or vertically to miss the node

boxes, are sometimes so close together, that they merge into a thick line

from which it is virtually impossible to establish where a dependency

comes from or where it goes. As tracing the dependencies is the heart of

network analysis, this reduces the usefulness of the network diagram.

Because of these disadvantages, the AoA method was generally retained for

this third edition, especially as the new ‘Lester’ diagram described in

xii

Preface to the third edition

xiii

Chapter 2 enables the advantages of both the AoA and AoN configuration

to be combined to give the best of both worlds. After absorbing the

fascinating capabilities of the various computer programs, there is one

important message that the author would like to ‘bring across’. This is, that

in all cases the network should be roughed out manually with the project

team before using the computer. The thinking part of project planning

cannot be left to a machine.

A. Lester

Preface to the second

edition

It is nearly 10 years since the first edition of this book was published, so that

an update is long overdue. Many of the reviewers of the first edition expressed

the opinion that the author was more than a little antagonistic to computerized

networks. In that, they were absolutely correct. The book was written during

a period when mainframe machines were still largely used and micros had

only just arrived on the scene. The problems, delays and useless paper

disgorged by the mainframe computers nearly killed network analysis as a

project control tool. Indeed, several large companies abandoned the system

altogether. The book was therefore written to show that critical path methods

and computerization were not synonymous – indeed, compared to the time

taken by the laborious business of preparing input data sheets and punched

cards, the manual method of analysis was far quicker. No apologies are

therefore made for the first edition.

Now, however, the personal computer (PC) can be found in nearly all

planning offices and many sites. The punched card has been replaced by the

keyboard, the test printout by the VDU and the punchgirl by the planner

himself. In addition, specialist software houses have produed sophisticated

programs (frequently marketed as Project Management Systems) which

enable the planner or project manager to see at a glance the effect of a

proposed change in logic or time, and produce at the end a vast range of

ouptus in tabular, bar chart, pie chart or histogram format, often in colour.

It was necessary, therefore, to modify or (in some cases) completely rewrite

several chapters of this book to bring the text up to date. For that reason, it was

decided to describe one of the better-known computer programs in some

detail, but the danger with computer systems is that they get improved and

enhanced year after year, so that even the system described may be out of date

in its present form within a year of publication.