Nhìn lại thị trường tài chính tiền tệ quốc tế 2007

TAI CHIN H QUOC TE ( So 3(56) - 2008 )

l^Tdm 2007, lam phat

I ^ tdng cao tai rat nhieu

nude tren the gidi, ty le

lam phdt tdng cao tai Nam

Phi (dubdo tdng tu:4,9% nam

2006 den 7,2% nam 2007),

Trung Quoc (6,2% vdo thdng

9/2007). Sieu lam phdt cdng

xuat hien tai Iran: 13,5% vdo

thdng 3, 16% vdo thdng

1012007 vd CO khd ndng len

tdi 20% vdo cudi ndm 2007.

Theo danh gid ciia cdc

chuyen gia Quy Tien Te

vdi cic ddng tien chu ehdt khic

tren thi trugng tien te the' gidi

do kinh te My tiep tuc tieu thu

Idn hon khinang sin xui't, nhap khau vugt qua xa xuat

khiu vi su tang trudng cham

cua thi trudng nhi dit. Cung ed

nhiing thdi diem ddng USD

ting gii nhung chi li "ehdp

ma" do "phin iing nhi't thdi

theo tin tiie eiia cic nhi diu tu"

vio thi trudng bit ddng sin, thi

trudng ehiing khoin My van

edn nhieu bit dn. Viec Cue Du

NHiN L6I Thj TR^OfNG T^l CMINH

TIEN TE QUOC TE 2007

Truong giang

Quoc Te (IMF), con so 10%

cung Id ty le vugt gid cua cdc

quoc gia xuat khdu dau mo

tai vung vinh.

Ap luc lam phdt cung ngdy

cdng tdng a cdc nude phdt

trien, mac du mirc do vdn

trong tdm kiem soat. Tai My,

cudc dieu tra mdi day cua

Reuters vd Dai hgc Michigan

cho thay ty le lam phdt hdng

ndm trong thdng 1212007 ude

tinh len toi 3,5%, mirc cao

nhat tir thdng 8/2006. Dubdo

lam phdt cho giai doan 5 ndm

cung tdng len. Lam phdt cao

cung dang ddt Ngan hdng

Trung uang chdu Au (ECB)

trudc mot bdi todn kho khi

phai cdn ddi giii'a cdc muc

tieu Id thuc day tdng trudng

vd dn dinh gid cd.

Lam phdt cua Trung Quoc

tdng nhanh anh hudng Idn

tdi lam phdt todn cau.

Nam 2007 la nam thi't bai

nang ne eiia ddng USD vdi sir

trugt doe khdng phanh. Ddng

USD lien tuc mat gii manh so

trir Lien bang My (FED) ra

quyet dinh eat giim lii suit

ddng liSD tir mire 5,25%

xud'ng miirc 4,75% vio thing 9

vira qua nhim khdi phuc tdc do

tang trudng kinh te da khien

cho ddng USD "roi tu do" va

gin nhu chua tim dugc diem

"dd". Tinh tir thing 1 tdi thing

11 nam 2007, ddng USD da

mat gia 13% so vdi rd tien te

gdm cic ddng tien ciia cic

nude cdng nghiep phit trien

khac. Trong khi dd, USD chi

mat gia 5% so vdi ddng Nhan

din te (NDT) va diy li ly do tai

sao, thim hut thuong mai giiia

My vi Trung Qude vin tiep tuc

tang cao. Ngiy ll/12/200'7, FED da quyet dinh eit giim lai

suit ddng USD 0,25% tir miic

4,5% xud'ng edn 4,25%. Cimg

vdi hai lin eit giim vao cudi

thing 9 vi 10, diy la lin thii ba

FED ha lai suit ddng USD

nhim vuc day nen kinh te'.

Ngugc lai vdi ddng USD,

ddng euro (EUR) trong nam

2007 lien tuc tang gia so vdi

mgt sd ddng tien chii ehdt khic

tren thi trudng tien te the" gidi. Diu thing 7/2007, Ngan hang

Trung uong Chau Au (ECB)

quyet dinh giira nguyen lai suat

tien giri ddng EUR d mire 4% va

vin duy tri cho tdi nay, bit chap

ddng tien chung nay dang d mirc

rat cao so vdi cic ngoai te manh

khic. Ddng thai niy nhim kiem

che' lam phit vi tao dieu kien

thuin lgi cho cae doanh nghiep

di vay ed eo hdi tiep can cac

ngudn vd'n vay, diu tu md rdng

sin xuat, tao ra mgt trien vong

tang trudng khi quan cho ca khu

vuc trong thdi gian tdi.

Vao thdi diem cudi thing

10/2007, viee FED giim lai suat

da khien ddng EUR ngay lap tii'c

len gii manh so vdi ddng USD, ddng EUR dat mure ky luc cao

nhi't ke' tii khi ehinh thiic dugc

phit hanh vao nam 1999 dat

1,4439 EUR /USD. Mgt sd nha

kinh doanh du doan rat ed the

sip tdi ddng EUR se dat mirc

1,4540 USD. Tuy nhien, ddi vdi

ddng yen (JPY), ddng EUR co

thdi diem giim nhe vi sau da

tang trd lai. Ddng ELfR da giam

gia so vdi ddng JPY vio cudi

thing 9, mgt euro doi duoc

khoang 162,02 yen, sau dd tang

len mirc li 162,49 EUR/JPYva

diu thing 10. Diu thing 11, ddng yen lai giam so vdi d6ng

euro, tit 165,65 EUR/IPY xudng

cdnl65.50EUR/IPY.

Trong nam 2007, ddng JPY

lien tuc tang gii so vdi ddng

USD do kinh te My phuc h6i

kem,thi trudng bit ddng sin My

tri tre, trong khi dd nln kinh te

Nhit Ban phuc bdi nhanh hon. Nhieu cdng ty Nhit, nhilu nha

diu tuda tang cudng chuyen vdn

tir USD sang JPY lim cho dong

JPY ting gii manh. Cudi thing

10, trong khi ddno JPY tang gia

lien tuc trong nhieu ngay do cac

thi trudng chimg khoin chiu A

giim dang bdi thiic cae nha diu

42> Tap chi nghien cCfu Tai chinh ke' toan