Mười vấn đề kinh tế vĩ mô năm 2008

NGHIEN CQU - TRAO DOI

MUdi von de kinh te vrmo nam 2008

DO VAN THANH,

PHAM THI THU TRANG

I. Tang trudng kinh te giam siit

Tdng truong GDP nhin til

phia cdu

Nam 2008, tdc do tang trudng

tich luy tai san cd dinh, tidu dting

cudi cimg, xuat khdu rdng ddu

giam so vdi nam 2007. Tang

trudng tich luy tai san giam manh,

giam 20,3 diem %. Tidu diing

chinh phu gidm 1,4 diem %; tidu

dimg tu nhan cung giam 2,7 did'm

%. Xuat khau hang boa, dich vu

chi tang 5,6%. Nhirng suy giam ay

bat ngudn tir mdt so nguydn nhan:

Thu nhal, tieu dung tunltdn tdng

clidm: Tidu diing tu nhiin thd bidn rd

nhdt qua chi tidu tdng miic ban le

hang boa va doanh thu dich vu tieu

diing. Tdc do tang tdng mire ban le

hang hod va dich vu nam 2008 so

vdi nam 2007 la 31%. Ndu loai trir

tang trudng vd gid, tang trudng ve

lugng ca nam la 6,5%, biing 1/2 tdc

do tiing 13,3% ciia niim 2007.

Thu hai, chi lieu Chinh phi] gidm:

Hai trong sd 8 nbdm giai phap kiem

che liim phat, dn dinh kinh te vT md

ma Qiinb phii de ni thang 4/2008 la

nang cao bidu qua chi tidu cdng va

tridt de' tiet kidm trong siin xuat, tidu

diing. Chinh .sach nay da diit dugc

nhung thanh cdng nhiii dinh. So tien

tiet kidm chi thudng xuydn thugc

ngdn sach nha nude nam 2(K)8 udc

khoilng 2.700 ty ddng. Cd 1968 diran

bi boiin khdi cdng hoac dimg tridn

khai vdi tdng vd'n 5,992 nghin ty.

Nam nhiim (55) tap doan, tdng cdng

ty da ciit giam, hoan khdi cdng, dimg

tridn khai, dan tidn do 1.145 du an vdi

tong gid tri 31 nghin ty ddng.

Thu ha, tdng trud'ng van ddu tU

gidm: Theo gia hien hanh thi vd'n

Nam 2008 da di qua vdi nhieu diin bien kinh te phijfc tap, trai ngugc vdi

didn bien cua cac nam trudc dd. Kinh te Viet Nam da khdng giii duoc da

tang trudng cao. Tdc dp tang trudng kinh te nam 2008 udc dat 6,23%, thap

hdn tdc dp 8,48% cua nam 2007, thap hdn so vdi ke hoach da dieu chinh

cua nam 2008 la 7%.

ddu tu toan xa hdi nam 2008 udc dat

637,3 nghin ty ddng, tang 22,2%; so

vdi nam 2007. Tuy nhidn, sau khi

loai trir yd'u td gid, vd'n ddu tu phat

trid'n xa hdi nam 2008 thuc te chi

tang 7,67%;, bdng 1/3 tdc do tang

vd'n thuc td'cua nam 2007 la 25,6%).

Thu tu, nhap sieu cd ndm tdng:

Nam 2008, kim ngiich nbiip khdu

udc diit 80,4 ty USD; nhap sidu 17,5

ty USD. £)6 thi 1 cho thay nam

2008 cd miic nhap sidu ky luc. Ty Id

nhap sidu trdn tong kim ngach xuai

khdu hang boa cung cao nhdt trong

nhidu nam qua, chiem tdi 27,8%

kim ngcach hang boa xuat khdu.

Xuiit khdu gap khd khiin do su

thu hep ciia hdu hdi cdc thi trudng

tidu thu, dac biet la cac thi trudng

xudt khdu Idn ciia Viet Nam nhu

Hoa Ky, EU va Nhat Ban. Tir thang

9/2008, kim ngach xudt khau bdt

ddu suy giam va xu hudng nay tiep

tuc tdi thang 11. Xuat khdu hang hod

thang 12/2008 tang sau 3 thang

giam lidn tiep. Kim ngach xudt khdu

hang hod nam 2008 tang 29,5% so

vdi nam 2007, tang cao nhat tir nam

2005. Tuy vay, tdc do tang trirdng

xudt khdu ve lugng chi la 13,5%,

thap hon nam 2006 va 2007.

Tdng truong ciia cdc ngdnh

kinh te nhin tir phia cung

Ca nam 2008, tang trudng tong

san phdm quoc ndi la 6,23%;, gia tri

tang thdm ciia khu vuc ndng-ldm￾thuy Siin tiing trudng 3,79%, tiing

0,39 didm % so vdi nam 2007.

Trong khi dd, tdc do tang trudng

ciia khu vuc cdng ngbidp-xdy dung

va dich vu ddu giam. Mac dii tang

trudng bai khu vuc trdn deu giam

nhung khu vuc cdng nghidp-xay

dung cd miic giam sut Idn hon.

Kim vifc nong-ldm-thuy sdn: Tir

nam 2007 trd vd trudc, trong khu vuc

ndng-ldm-thuy san, ty trgng nganh

ndng nghiep cd xu hudng giam,

nganh thuy san tang. Sang nam

2008, ngugc liii, ty trgng nganh ndng

nghiep tang, nganh thiiy .sdn giam.

Gia tri tiing thdm rtgiinh ndng nghiep

tang manh (tir 2,34% nam 2007 len

3,58% nam 2008) do: san xuat dugc

mua, san lugng luong thuc nam 2008

tang cao nhat tir nam 2005 va gia

luong thue nam 2008 tang d mire

khd cao. Gia tri tang thdm nganh

tbiiy san giam (tir 1038% xudng

5,44%) do: Gid cac ddu vao (gia dau

vao phuc vii danh bdt, gia thirc an

chan nudi, dac biet la xang ddu d

nhirng thdng ddu niim) tang, gia ban

san pham giam, tidu thu khd khan.

Khu vUc cong nghiep-.\dy diiiig:

Budc vao nam 2008, san xuat cong

nghidp-xay dung giip nhidu kho

khan. Gid tri tang thdm khu vuc

cdng nghidp-xay dimg giam tdi 4,27

didm % so vdi nam 2007 do tdc do

tang trudng ciia cdc ngimb deu giam

siit, dac biet gia tri tang thdm cua

nganh cdng nghiep khai thac giam

xud'ng cdn 3,83% va ciia nganh xiiy

dung giam cdn 0,23%, rat thiip so

So 3/2009

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