Lạm phát năm 2010 có đáng lo ngại?

( So 04 (81)-2010 ) TAI CHINH VI MO

Lam phat nam 2010 co dang lo ngai?

Ths. Ngo Thi Thu Hfftfng *

• ^ o rdng, kinh te the'gidi 2010 con tiem an nhieu bat on, dac biet Id nhffng khd khdn

m ^ trong thffOng mai do sff phuc hoi cua chu nghia bdo ho, bien dong ty gid hdi dodi cua

.M. m. cdc dong tien chu chot vd khung hodng ncfdo tham hut ngdn sdch cua nhieu nffdc len

cao sau khi o at kich thich kinh te'trong ndm 2009. Viet Nam dd cd nhieu gidiphdp tich cffc ngdn

chdn vd han chedffOc nhffng bat ldi tff cuoc khung hodng kinh te todn can ndm 2009 nhffng sang

ndm 2010, chung ta vdn phdi tiep tuc chdng dd hau khung hodng vd trdnh nguy cd tdi lam phdt...

De trdnh lap lai nhffng nguy cdcua ndm 2008, 2009 thi trong ndm 2010, Viet Nam can phdi cd dii

bdo tot; kiem tra kiem sodt kip thdi, xffly nhffng van de ton tai mot cdch cffdng quyet, trdnh nhffng

sd hd trong dieu hdnh chinh sdch tien t^...

Nguyen nhan thffc sff

gay ra lam phat cao of Viet

Nam

Trong qud khff Viet Nam

cd thdi gian phai chiu lam

phdt phi ma, nhffng ke tff nam

1993 lam phdt da dffdc khd'ng

che khd tot va thffdng dffdi 2

con sd. Lam phdt d Viet Nam

bdt dau tang cao tff nam 2004,

cung vdi giai doan biing nd ciia

kinh te' the' gidi va viec tdng

gia cua nhieu loai hang hda.

Nam 2007, chi sdCPI tang de'n

12,6% va dac biet tang cao vdo

nhffng thdng cud'i nam.

Nam 2008 la mot nam

ddng nhd ddi vdi kinh te vl md

cung nhff tinh hinh lam phdt d

Viet Nam va de'n ndm 2009,

suy thodi ciia kinh te the gidi

khie'n sffc cau suy giam, gid

nhieu hang hda cung xudng

mffc khd tha'p, lam phdt trong

nffdc dffdc Idid'ng che. CPI

ndm 2009 tdng 6,52%, tha'p

hdn ddng ke so vdi nhffng nam

gan day. Tuy vay, mffc tang

nay neu so vdi cdc qudc gia

trong khu vffc vd tren the gidi

* HQC vien ngan hang

lai cao hdn khd nhieu.

Cd the tdm tat cdc yeu

to' tdc dong de'n lam phdt xuat

phdt tff 3 nguyen nhan chinh:

cung tien tang qua mffc, gid

hang hda the gidi tang cao dot

ngot, vd sffc cau ve hang hda

trong nffdc tang trong khi san

xua't chffa ddp ffng kip.

Thdi gian qua, nhieu y

kien ddng thuan cho rang cung

tien dffdc xem la nguyen nhan

chinh gay ra lam phdt d Viet

Nam. Tff nam 2000 de'n ndm

2009, tin dung trong nen kinh

te tang hdn 10 lan, cung tien

M2 tdng hdn 7 lan, trong khi

dd GDP thffc te chi tang hdn 1

lan. Dieu nay tat ye'u dan den

ddng tien bi mat gid. Thffc te

chiing ta d6 nhan tha'y la lam

phdt d Viet Nam cao hdn ra't

nhieu so vdi cdc qudc gia khdc

trong cung thdi ky, mac du

cung chiu chung cu sd'c tang

gid ciia hang hda the gidi.

Ngoai nguyen nhan tien

te ke tren, chung ta xem xet

nhffng nguyen nhan cdn lai

Tap chf nghien ciifu Tdi chfnh ke todn <(11

xua't phdt tff phia cau va phia

cung hang hda. Day la nhffng

nguyen nhan trffc tiep va de

tha'y nha't. Trong ndm 2007,

sff bung nd ciia nhu cau tieu

diing trong nffdc da gdp phan

lam lam phdt tdng tdc. Cung

trong khoang thdi gian dd, gid

ca ciia hang loat nguyen nhien

lieu nhff xdng dau, sdt thep,

va Iffdng thffc deu tang manh,

kich hoat cho mot ddt tang gia

manh me ciia hau het cdc hdng

hda vd djch vu trong nffdc.

Lam phdt cao nha't tinh theo

nam da len tdi 28% vdo thdng

8/2008. Cud'i nam 2008, vdi sff

lao doc ciia hau he't cdc hang

hda tren the gidi, lam phdt

trong nffdc cung dffdc chdn

dffng. Lam phat giam xud'ng

mffc tha'p nha't chi cdn 1,97%

(YoY) vao thdng 8/2009.

CPI thdng 3/2010 tdng

0,75% •

Theo so' Ueu Tdng cue

Thdng ke vffa chinh thffc cdng

bd' thi chi so' gia tieu diing

(CPI) thdng 3/2010 da tang

0,75% so vdi thang trffdc. Day