Higher Education to 2030 pdf

Higher Education to 2030

VOLUME 2

GLOBALISATION

Growing flows of knowledge, people and financing cross national borders and feed both worldwide

collaboration and competition. These effects of globalisation increasingly impact higher education.

How then might the future higher education scene look at the global level? What are the challenges

and opportunities brought by globalisation? How can countries and institutions best cope with and

benefit from future changes?

Through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, this book provides a comprehensive and

structured look at these essential questions. It explores the topic of cross-border higher education in

terms of student, faculty and institutional mobility, providing a specific focus on academic research.

Other issues addressed include higher education provision, financing, governance and quality

assurance, with an emphasis on the use of market-like mechanisms. The book covers most OECD

countries as well as many non-OECD countries and offers the reader specific reflections on China,

India and European co-operation.

Higher Education to 2030 (Vol. 2): Globalisation will be of interest to policy makers, managers of

higher education institutions, academics, researchers, and students – as well as to all readers

interested in social issues. This is the second volume in the Higher Education to 2030 series, which

takes a forward-looking approach to analysing the impact of various contemporary trends on tertiary

education systems. Volume 1 examines the effects of demography, while volume 3 explores the

effects of technology. The fourth and final volume will present scenarios illustrating the main trends

and driving forces for the future of higher education.

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XXXPFDEPSHQVCMJTIJOH 96 2009 04 1 P -:HSTCQE=UZ[[UW:

Higher Education to 2030

VOLUME 2

GLOBALISATION

C entre for Educational R esearch and I nnovation

Higher Education to 2030 VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION

Higher Education to 2030

VOLUME 2

GLOBALISATION

CENTRE FOR EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH AND INNOVATION

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION

AND DEVELOPMENT

The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 30 democracies work together to

address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at

the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and

concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an

ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy

experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate

domestic and international policies.

The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic,

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea,

Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic,

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the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD.

OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and

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standards agreed by its members.

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Also available in French: L’enseignement supérieur à l’horizon 2030, Volume 2 : Globalisation

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opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official

views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries.

FOREWORD

HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 3

Foreword

Higher education and research play a key role in countries’ response to globalisation. At the same

time, even if no global model of the higher education system is currently emerging, higher education

is increasingly becoming globalised. Higher education is thus simultaneously a response to, and a

scene for, global competition, collaboration, mobility and cross-cultural encounters.

This book analyses recent trends in tertiary education systems that relate to globalisation and

draws up several possible future scenarios for their evolution. It looks at three main sets of

questions: cross-border higher education, that is, the mobility of students, faculty, programmes and

institutions; the trends in the governance of tertiary education as a result of globalisation, notably as

it relates to funding, quality assurance, and privatisation; and, finally, the perceived and actual

forces fuelling competition and collaboration at the global level, including international rankings and

the emergence of China and India as global players.

Like its companion volumes in this series, on demography (volume 1) and technology (volume 3)

respectively, this report will help higher education policy makers and stakeholders to better

understand globalisation-related trends in higher education – and imagine several possible and

plausible futures.

Completed just before the recession, this book is a very timely opportunity to enlighten policy

and decision making during the recovery. Business as usual cannot be the right answer. More than

ever, it is essential to be forward-looking, innovative, and to question the continuation of some recent

trends. Informing and framing this forward-looking discussion is precisely the mission of the Centre

for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) project on the future of higher education, led by

Senior Analyst Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin.

This project has benefited from the support of all our member countries, but I would

particularly like to thank Austria, France and Portugal, which have generously hosted expert and

stakeholder meetings in relation to this strand of the project.

Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin and Analyst Kiira Kärkkäinen are the editors of the book. Therese

Walsh and Ashley Allen-Sinclair provided assistance and helped in preparing the manuscript. I

would further like to thank all the book’s authors who have provided original and complementary

insights into this complex subject as well as Dirk van Damme, head of CERI, for his strong support

to the project and Tom Schuller, former head of CERI, from whose valuable advice the project on the

future of higher education has benefited.

Barbara Ischinger

Director for Education

TABLE OF CONTENTS

HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 5

Table of Contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Chapter 1. The New Global Landscape of Nations and Institutions

by Simon Marginson and Marijk van der Wende . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

1.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

1.2. Interpretations of globalisation in higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

1.3. Mapping the global environment of nations and institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

1.4. Global power relations in higher education and research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

1.5. Tendencies to “disembedding” from national governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

1.6. Global private and public goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

1.7. General conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Chapter 2. Cross-border Higher Education: Trends and Perspectives

by Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

2.2. Trends in cross-border higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

2.3. Principal current strategies for the internationalisation of higher education 73

2.4. Student mobility growth perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

2.5. Three future scenarios for cross-border higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

2.6. Closing remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Chapter 3. Trends and Future Scenarios in Programme and Institution

Mobility across Borders

by Grant McBurnie and Christopher Ziguras. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89

3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

3.2. Limitations in forecasting growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

3.3. Scenario one: the world of higher education becomes more foreign . . . . . . . . . 93

3.4. Scenario two: as the world churns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

3.5. Scenario three: branch campus clusters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

3.6. Scenario four: raising the bar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

3.7. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

TABLE OF CONTENTS

6 HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009

Chapter 4. Europeanisation, International Rankings and Faculty Mobility:

Three Cases in Higher Education Globalisation

by Simon Marginson and Marijk van der Wende . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109

4.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

4.2. Europeanisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

4.3. University rankings and typologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

4.4. Global faculty mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

4.5. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

Chapter 5. What is Changing in Academic Research? Trends and Prospects

by Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

5.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146

5.2. The massification of academic research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

5.3. Basic research: the main mission of academic research?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

5.4. Academic research and new public management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

5.5. The rise of private funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

5.6. The internationalisation of academic research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

5.7. A new social contract for research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

5.8. Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

5.9. Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Annex 5.A1. Future Scenarios for Academic Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173

Chapter 6. The Giants Awake: The Present and Future of Higher Education Systems

in China and India

by Philip G. Altbach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

6.1. A difficult history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182

6.2. Contemporary characteristics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

6.3. China and India as international higher education players . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187

6.4. Societal challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

6.5. The future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199

Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201

Chapter 7. European Higher Education Reforms in the Context of the Bologna Process:

How Did We Get Here, Where Are We and Where Are We Going?

by Johanna Witte, Jeroen Huisman and Lewis Purser . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205

7.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

7.2. How did we get here: the Bologna Process in motion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206

7.3. Where are we: the state of change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

7.4. Where are we going: future scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216

7.5. Summary and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227

TABLE OF CONTENTS

HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 7

Chapter 8. Mass Higher Education and Private Institutions

by Pedro Teixeira . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231

8.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232

8.2. The long history and recent expansion of private higher education . . . . . . . . . 232

8.3. Some stylised facts on private higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244

8.4. What future role for private higher education in times

of mass higher education?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 256

Chapter 9. Finance and Provision in Higher Education: A Shift from Public to Private?

by Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259

9.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

9.2. Trends in enrolments in public and private higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

9.3. Is public funding declining in higher education?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266

9.4. Concluding remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

Annex 9.A1. Supplementary tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283

Chapter 10. Scenarios for Financial Sustainability of Tertiary Education

by Jamil Salmi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285

10.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286

10.2. Trends and factors shaping tertiary education financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287

10.3. The changing face of public financing: funding approaches and instruments 297

10.4. Three scenarios for the future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306

10.5. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317

Annex 10.A1. Matrix of voucher systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320

Annex 10.A2. Matrix of education savings accounts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321

Chapter 11. Quality Assurance in Higher Education – Its Global Future

by Richard Lewis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323

11.1. Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324

11.2. The development of quality assurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325

11.3. The growth in external quality assurance agencies over the last 20 or so years 326

11.4. The “standard model” and the differences within that model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328

11.5. Emerging trends and the future of external quality assurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333

11.6. The breaking down of national boundaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342

11.7. A possibly more fundamental change – the end of, or the redefinition of,

higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348

11.8. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351

Annex 11.A1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8 HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009

List of Boxes

2.1. Foreign and international students in international statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

10.1. Demographic impact on the student age population in Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289

10.2. Foreign competition in Indian higher education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294

10.3. Performance Contracts in Spain: the “contract program” in Madrid . . . . . . . . . . . . 305

10.4. Enrolment growth and quality crisis in Egyptian tertiary education . . . . . . . . . . . . 309

10.5. Demand-side funding in Chile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313

List of Tables

1.1. Selected indicators of global potential, capacity and engagement,

OECD countries and selected other countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

1.2. Spoken languages with more than 100 million voices worldwide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

1.3. Countries’ share of the top 500 and 100 research universities

as measured by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, compared to their share

of world economic capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

1.4. Output of published articles in science and engineering (including medicine

and social sciences), OECD countries and selected other countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

1.5. Countries in which the number of scientific papers in science and engineering

grew particularly sharply between 1988 and 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

1.6. Selected indicators on selected countries and regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

2.1. Destination of foreign students in the OECD area by region of origin (%)

and changes between 1998 and 2007 (% points). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

2.2. Breakdown of foreign students in the major OECD regions (%), 2007,

and changes between 1998 and 2007 (% points). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

2.3. Difference in salary between mobile and non mobile higher education graduates,

five years after the end of their studies (2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

3.1. Enrolments of students in transnational Australian higher education from 2000

to 2025 by region (actual and forecasted numbers) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

4.1. The Global Super-league: the world’s leading universities as measured

by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University (2007), and The Times Higher (2007) . . . . . . . . 123

5.1. Share of gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) performed

by sector, 1981, 2006 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

5.2. Distribution of domestic basic research expenditures

across sectors of performance (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

5.3. Basic research as a percentage of R&D performed by each sector

(% of expenditure). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152

5.4. Funding sources of higher education R&D (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

5.5. Percentage of government funding of academic research, by mode of funding

(% of public funds) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

5.6. Number, growth and share of patent applications filed under the Patent

Co-operation Treaty, owned by universities (1994-2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

5.7. Share and breadth of international scientific collaboration over time,

by country/economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

7.1. Implementation of diploma supplement in 2007. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212

7.2. Implementation of European credit transfer system (ECTS) in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

7.3. Implementation of national qualification frameworks in line

with the overarching Qualifications Framework for European Higher Education

Area (EHEA) in 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

8.1. Tertiary education students enrolled by type of institution in 2006

(full and part-time students). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238

8.2. Population having attained tertiary education in OECD countries in 2006 (%) . . . . 240

8.3. Earnings of the population with tertiary education relatively to upper secondary

and post-secondary non tertiary education ( = 100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240

8.4. Evolution of enrolments in Portuguese higher education from 1971 to 2006 . . . . . 243

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8.5. Main features in development of private and public higher education provision

in a global scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244

8.6. Scale of for-profit higher education in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245

8.7. Emergence of private higher education institutions in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

8.8. Most common/popular study fields in private higher education institutions

in selected countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250

9.1. Change in the distribution of students (full-time equivalent) enrolled

in tertiary education and in advanced research programs by control

of institutions between 1998 and 2006 (% points) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 264

9.2. Change in the share of tertiary education students (full-time and part-time)

enrolled in public institutions (% points) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

9.3. Change in the distribution of funding to higher education institutions

by stakeholder between 1995 and 2005 and change in public funding

and public funding per student to higher education institutions (1995-2005). . . . . 269

9.4. Total public expenditure on tertiary education as a percentage

of public expenditure and as a percentage of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276

9.5. Public expenditures for tertiary education by category, 2005 (and change). . . . . . . 277

9.6. Changes in funding according to several indictors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278

9.A1.1. Change in number of students (full-time equivalent) enrolled in tertiary

education and in advanced research programs by control of institutions

between 1998 and 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283

9.A1.2. Tertiary education expenditures by stakeholder source of funding

(selected indicators) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284

10.1. The demographic challenge in Pakistan, two scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 288

10.2. Average fees in public universities in selected countries in academic

year 2004-05 (USD converted using PPPs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300

10.3. Resource diversification matrix for public tertiary institutions by category

and source of income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

10.4. Innovative allocation models in tertiary education, selected countries. . . . . . . . . . 306

10.5. OECD countries with the highest proportion of public funding for tertiary

education in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307

10.6. World rankings and population size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308

10.7. Main characteristics of the financing scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315

11.1. Coverage of quality assurance agencies (2008). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329

11.2. Do agencies grade (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331

11.3. Do agencies publish reports of reviews (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332

11.4. Differences between hard and soft quality assurance models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333

11.5. Steps towards quality enhancement in quality assurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334

11.6. Indicative specific and generic competences for first cycle degrees in business . . 340

11.7. Use of cross-border reviewers (2008) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343

11.8. Does an agency have policies and procedures in place relating to exported

higher education (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345

11.9. Does an agency have policies and procedures in place relating to imported

higher education (2008)? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345

List of Figures

1.1. Four zones of strategy making by nations and higher education institutions . . . . 27

2.1. Number and percentage of foreign and international students in the OECD area,

2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

2.2. Number of national students abroad and mobility rate to foreign countries,

2007 (first countries of origin in terms of student numbers) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

2.3. Increase in the number of national students abroad and foreign students

in OECD countries, 1998-2007 (1998 = 100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

2.4. Mobility rate to foreign countries (countries with a percentage of over 20%), 2007 71

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10 HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009

2.5. Increase in the number of foreign students worldwide (1975-2007)

and projections looking forward to 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81

3.1. Growth of transnational higher education – Scenario 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

3.2. Growth of transnational higher education – Scenario 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

3.3. Growth of transnational higher education – Scenario 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

3.4. Growth of transnational higher education – Scenario 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

5.1. Science and Engineering article output by major publishing region/country

(1988-2005) (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

5.2. Number of patent applications filed under the Patent Co-operation Treaty,

owned by universities in selected regions/countries (1994-2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

5.3. Share of world citations of Science and Engineering (S&E) articles,

by major region/country (1995, 2000, 2005). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

5.4. Share of citations in top 1% cited S&E journals, by frequency of citation

and region or country/economy (1992-2003). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

5.5. Percentage of worldwide S&E articles coauthored domestically

and internationally (1988–2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

5.A1. Four scenarios for academic research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174

6.1. Number of higher education students (in millions) in the early 1990s and 2006 . . 181

6.2. Distribution of international students in China’s higher education. . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

6.3. Average academic salaries, selected countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194

6.4. Higher education participation in China and India

(gross enrolment ratio 1991-2006, official targets for 2017 and 2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

9.1. Distribution of all tertiary education enrolments (full-time equivalent)

by control of institution, 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262

9.2. Distribution of enrolments (full-time equivalent) in advanced research

programs by control of institution, 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263

9.3. Change in expenditures on tertiary education institutions between 1995

and 2005 (Index of change 1995 = 100, GDP deflator and GDP,

constant prices). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267

9.4. Change in expenditures on tertiary education institutions for all services

per student between 1995 and 2005 (Index of change 1995 = 100, GDP deflator

and GDP, constant prices) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268

9.5. Distribution of direct funding for higher education institutions by source 2005 (%) 270

9.6. Annual expenditure per student on core services, ancillary services

and R&D by source of funding (2005) (in equivalent US dollars converted

using PPPs for GDP, based on full-time equivalents (FTE)) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271

9.7. Change in the share of resources coming from households in tertiary

education institutions’ expenditures, 1995-2005 (% points). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272

9.8. Contribution of households to the expenditures of tertiary education

institutions, 2005 (USD and PPPs, based on FTE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273

9.9. Share of direct expenditures to tertiary education institutions coming

from households, 2005 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274

10.1. Evolution of tertiary education gross enrolment ratio from 1985 to 2007 (%) . . . . . 288

10.2. Current and projected population pyramids for Korea and Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . 290

10.3. Enrolment rates by age for full-time and part-time students in public

and private institutions in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291

10.4. Average educational attainment of the Chinese and OECD working-age

population (2001). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292

10.5. Demographic shape of tertiary education in the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293

10.6. Change in number of students and total per student expenditures from 1995

to 2004 (2004 constant prices, Index of change 1995 = 100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297

10.7. Evolution of total expenditures on tertiary education institutions as a percentage

of GDP from 1995 to 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298

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HIGHER EDUCATION TO 2030 – VOLUME 2: GLOBALISATION © OECD 2009 11

10.8. Average tuition fees and room and board at four-year institutions

in the United States from 1975-76 to 2008-09 (Constant dollars,

enrolment-weighted) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299

10.9. Self-generated income in public tertiary education institutions as a proportion

of total resources in 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302

10.10. Evolution of share of private tertiary education enrolment from 1970 to 2006. . . . 302

10.11. Schematic representation of tertiary education financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303

10.12. Funding matrix: dimensions of performance and competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304

10.13. Private enrolment and expenditures in tertiary education: a comparison between

OECD and selected other countries (2004) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314

Higher Education to 2030

Volume 2: Globalisation

© OECD 2009

13

Executive Summary

Higher education drives and is driven by globalisation. It trains the highly skilled

workers and contributes to the research base and capacity for innovation that determine

competitiveness in the knowledge-based global economy. It facilitates international

collaboration and cross-cultural exchange. Cross-border flows of ideas, students, faculty

and financing, coupled with developments in information and communication technology,

are changing the environment where higher education institutions function. Co-operation

and competition are intensifying simultaneously under the growing influence of market

forces and the emergence of new players. How will global higher education evolve over the

next 20 years? How can governments and institutions meet the challenges and make the

most of the opportunities?

Higher Education to 2030: Globalisation, the second in a four-volume series, addresses these

issues both from a quantitative and a qualitative standpoint. Increased global competition

in higher education, simultaneous to cross-border collaboration is illustrated not only on a

global scale, but also at a regional level through developments in Europe. Though the

emphasis is on the OECD area, the reflections have a worldwide scope with particular

emphasis on the potential of China and India. The book explores significant trends in

higher education provision, financing and governance, including a specific focus on the

future role of market forces, mobility, and quality assurance in higher education.

The reviewed trends point towards the possible following key developments in the

future:

Cross-border higher education, implying mobility

of students, faculty and institutions, will grow

Student mobility has increased significantly over the past decade, supported by

internationalisation policies within Europe and in some other countries. Institutional

rankings and pressure on financing are likely to continue to boost student mobility and

global competition for international students – increasingly of Chinese or Indian origin,

and attracted by English-speaking destinations. Geographical mobility of faculty,

predominantly south-to-north and east-to-west, is likely to continue, driven by salary and

superior infrastructure. Moreover, other types of cross-border mobility may become more

important in the future, as has been shown by the sharp rise of programme and institution

mobility over the past decade, especially in a few Asian countries. In the future, the

increase in institutional mobility could take several different paths. It might level off due to

the related costs and risks. Alternatively, the market could expand if host countries

gradually become exporters of higher education services. In addition to the commercial