Dự báo kinh tế Việt Nam 6 tháng cuối năm 2010

Vl/BAO KINH TE VIETNAM

6 THANG cud'i NAM 2010

TS. LE QUOC PHLfdNG va Nhom nghien cdu">

Trung tam Thong fin va Di/ bdo kinti te - xa hqi qudc gia

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In the context of world economic recovery, Vietnam economy in the

first half of 2010 developed in positive directions: economic growth rates

were rather high; disbursement of development investment capital was in

good situation; export and import recovered; inflation was inifially

restrained; interest rates were still high but a falling tendency began;

exchange rate was relatively kept stable.

Based on rather positive developments of Vietnam economy during

first half of 2010 and with more favourable conditions of the world econ￾omy, Vietnam economy is expected to keep on its recovery tendency.

Several macro indicators are projected as follows: GDP growth rate of the

third quarter, final quarter and whole year are 6.82%, 7.1% and 6.6%

respectively; year-on-year export value is expected at 67.7 billion USD,

import value is 78.8 billion USD, trade deficit is 11.1 billion USD; year-on￾year average CPI increased by about 8.4% in comparison to 2009...

Nevertheless, for Vietnam economy to keep on its recovery momentum,

special attentions should be paid to the following issues: economic

growth rates are restored but real efficiency of economic growth is still

low; trade deficit is still a matter of great concern; exchange rates are

under upward pressure, especially in the last months of the year; inflation

is basically controlled but there exist numerous factors putting upward

pressure on prices...

I. NHON G NET LC(N CUA KINH TE VIET NAM 6 THANG DAU

NAM 2010

Trong bd'i eanh kinh tetoan cau cd ban dang dan phue hoi sau cugc

khung hoing 2008-2009, kinh te Viet Nam 6 thing dau nam 2010 phat

trien theo chieu hddng tich cdc: sin xuat, kinh doanh dat ket qua kha

td't, kinh te vT md tdong ddi d'n djnh, lam phit da bddc dau ddge kiem

che... Dddi day la mgt sd net Idn eua tmh hinh kinh te 6 thing dau nam

2010.

1. Toe dg tang trdofng kinh te dat tdOng do! cao

Tdc do tang trddng GDP 6 thing dau nam 2010 dat 6,16%. Day

ddge xem la tdc do tang tddng dd'i khi quan xet trong bd'i cinh hien

nay. Tuy khdng eao bang cung ky ci c nam 2004-2007 (tren 7%), song

tdc do tang trddng 6 thing dau nam da gin bang toe do tang trddng

cung ky ci c nam 2002, 2003, 2008 (6,5-6,6%) va eao hon nhilu so vdi

eung ky nam 2009 (3,85%) - thdi

ky kinh te ndde ta chiu ti c dgng

manh cua khung hoing ti i chfnh

va suy thoi i kinh tetoi n eau.

Da phuc hdi didn ra d ea 3 khu

vdc ehfnh eua nen kinh te: khu

vdc edng nghiep - xay ddng ed tdc

do tang trddng 6 thing dau nam

so vdi cung ky ni m 2009 dat

7,0%; khu vdc ndng, lam, ngd

nghiep dat 3,6% va khu vdc dich

vu dat 6,4%.

2. Giai ngan cac nguon vo'n

dau td phat trien kha quan

Tfnh hinh giai ngan cua tat ea

eac ngudn vd'n dau td phat trien

(nhd vd'n dau td td ngan sach

nha ndde, vd'n dau td trde tie'p

ndde ngoai (FDI), vo'n ho trg phat

trie'n chfnh thdc (ODA)) trong 6

thin g dau nam 2010 khi.td't, eu

the' la:

Vdn dau td td ngan sich nha

ndde thdc hien 6 thing dau nam

2010 dat 63.000 ty dong, bang

50,4% ke hoach. So vdi eung ky

eie nam gan day, tinh hinh giai

ngan nam nay la rat kha quan.

"> TS. Do van Thanh, ThS. Phgm Thu Trang, ThS.

Ph6 Thi Kim Chi, Dang Huydn Unh.Trdn Kim Dung

Hoang Minh Ha, Phgm Thanh Cong.

S5'56 (8.2010) THONG TIN & DUBAO KINH TE-XA HOI 7