Analyzing The Key Drivers Of Tree Planting From Local People In Cao Phong District Hoa Binh Province Vietnam With Bayesian Networks

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MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM FORESTRY UNIVERSITY

STUDENT THESIS

Title

Analyzing the key drivers of tree planting from local people in

Cao Phong District, Hoa Binh Province, Vietnam with Bayesian

Networks

Major: Natural Resources Management

Code: D850101

Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management

Student: Tran Thi Mai Anh Student ID: 1153091133

Class: K56 Natural Resources Management Course: 2011 - 2015

Advanced Education Program

Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA

Supervisor: Dr. Le Dinh Hai

Ha Noi, 10/2015

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Abstract

Known as the climate and watershed protection roles, tree planting is an important

reforestation activity in the area that involves planting seedling (United Nation Environment

Program). In coping with significant deforestation and forest degradation currently in Cao

Phong district, Hoa Binh province, a massive of reforestation projects have been

implemented. The typical forestry programs are the 5 million ha reforestation program,

Project RENFODA and Afforestation and reforestation clean development mechanism (AR￾CDM) project were contributed to a substantial increase in Hoa Binh‟s forest cover during

several decades. However, when remarkable attempts and investments have been made in

reforestation, interaction of household characteristics, and socio-economic factors with tree

planting decision are still little comprehension. In this study, 100 households in Bac Phong

and Xuan Phong communes, Hoa Binh province were surveyed on factors influenced by tree

planting decision as well as the area of forest will be planted. The research investigated and

determined 6 success indicators including household characteristics and socio economic

indicators which effect the decision of farm households to plant trees with Bayesian networks

(BNs). BNs allow the incorporation of variances relationships in data analysis and can

combine qualitative dependents with quantitative data. Based on this there are 4 key factors

directly correlated to tree planting decision and 5 other highly connected variances that

influence to area of tree planting. The two BNs also are developed with the child nodes to

give suggestions and recommendations for increasing forest in research area. We conclude

that government forestry programs contribute great influences to forest planting activities and

household characteristics as well as socioeconomic factors have returned effects on the

success of reforestation programs

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Acknowledgements

I am pleased to have an opportunity to write my acknowledgements to many people

involved in the research, without whom this study would have never happened

First and foremost, I would like to express my deep sense of gratitude to respected

supervisor Dr. Le Dinh Hai from Faculty of Economics and Business Management, Vietnam

Forestry University for his continuous support, patient guidance and enthusiastic

encouragement throughout my research project. His ideas, knowledge and efforts are heavily

embedded into this study

I wish to extend my thanks to express my heartfelt gratitude to Prof. Dr. Lee

MacDonald, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University

for his valuable and constructive suggestions during the planning of this research work. His

willingness to give his time so generously has been very much appreciated

Similarly, I would love to thank various people for their contribution to this project;

Mr. Nguyen Huu Son, staff of Communal People Committee of Cao Phong district; the staffs

of Communal People Committee of Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Communes; Mr. Bui Van Bu

in Re village, Bac Phong Commue who devote their time to help me during the field survey.

Special thanks to local people in Cao Phong district for providing me helpful information in

this study

Finally, I own my gratefully thank to my grandmother, my parents, my sisters, my

uncles and aunts for their endless love, supports, and encouragements to me throughout all my

life. Without their wonderful care, it would have been impossible for me to chase my dream

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Table of Contents

Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 2

Acknowledgements................................................................................................................... 2

Table of Contents...................................................................................................................... 3

List of photos............................................................................................................................. 6

List of figures ............................................................................................................................ 7

List of tables.............................................................................................................................. 8

Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1

Chapter 2 Study Goals and Objectives................................................................................... 4

2.1. Study goal and objectives................................................................................................4

2.2. Research questions...........................................................................................................4

Chapter 3 Study Area and Research Methodology............................................................... 5

3.1. Selection of research site .................................................................................................5

3.1.1. Hoa Binh Province ....................................................................................................5

3.1.2. Cao Phong district .....................................................................................................6

3.2. Research methodology.....................................................................................................9

3.2.1. Framework of factors influencing tree planting development of smallholder..........9

3.2.2. Data collection.........................................................................................................16

3.2.3. Data analysis methods.............................................................................................19

3.2.4. Bayesian networks...................................................................................................22

Chapter 4 Results ................................................................................................................... 27

4.1. Descriptive statistic on surveyed households in Cao Phong district .............................27

4.1.1. Land area .................................................................................................................27

4.1.2. Education.................................................................................................................28

4.1.3. Distance to market...................................................................................................28

4.1.4. Knowledge on silviculture ......................................................................................29

4.2. Key drivers affecting tree planting decision of surveyed households ...........................30

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4.3. Key drivers affecting forest area will be planted of surveyed households....................32

4.4. Relationships among independent variables..................................................................33

4.5. Bayesian networks (BNs) ..............................................................................................36

4.5.1. Bayesian Network of tree planting decision model ................................................36

4.5.2. Bayesian network of forest area will be planted .....................................................38

Chapter 5 Discussion.............................................................................................................. 43

5.1. The difference of perspectives of households about planting trees..............................43

5.2. Potential actions which may increase planting forest in Cao Phong district ................48

5.2.1 Suggestion based on attitude of tree planting...........................................................48

5.2.2 Suggestion based on investment capital for tree planting........................................49

5.2.3 Suggestion based on knowledge on silviculture of local people..............................50

5.2.4 Suggestion based on distance to market...................................................................51

5.2.5 Suggestion based on total land area of each household ...........................................53

5.2.6. Suggestion based on participation forest program ..................................................54

5.3. Limitations and suggestions for future research ...........................................................55

Chapter 6 Conclusion............................................................................................................. 57

Chapter 7 References ............................................................................................................. 60

Chapter 8 Appendices............................................................................................................ 65

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List of photos

Photo 3.1. Land use change from timber tree to fruit tree farm .................................................8

Photo 3.2. Photo of interviewing local household of tree planting decision............................18

Photo 3.3. Acacia mangium is a popular species in most family .............................................22

Photo 5.1. Tree planting for fuel wood in Bac Phong commune .............................................46

Photo 5.2. Rich household invest on Aquilaria crassna Pierre species...................................50

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List of figures

Figure 3.1.The map of Hoa Binh province.................................................................................6

Figure 3.2. Map of communes in Cao Phong.............................................................................7

Figure 3.3. Factors influence tree planting decision of smallholder ........................................10

Figure 3.4. Bayesian of tree planting with the status of all variances......................................26

Figure 1. Frequency distribution of total land area ..................................................................70

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List of tables

Table 3.1. General Information on Bac Phong and Xuan Phong Commune (2015)..................9

Table 3.2 Cost-benefit parameters and possible influencing cost benefit estimates................13

Table 3.3. Sampling design in Cao Phong district ...................................................................17

Table 3.4. Basic to define household ranking in Vietnam........................................................18

Table 3.5. Basic to define moderate and rich households in Xuan Phong Commune and Bac

Phong........................................................................................................................................18

Table 3.6. Discretization methods for continuous variables ....................................................20

Table 3.7. Tree species are planted in Cao Phong district........................................................21

Table 4.1. Model summary for key drivers affecting tree planting decision............................31

Table 4.2. Model summary for key drivers affecting area will be planted...............................32

Table 5.1. Farmer‟s reasons for planting trees and not planting trees......................................45

Table 5.2. Percentages of farmers mentioning specific disadvantages of tree planting...........47

Table 1. Frequency of people participating in forestry program..............................................70

Table 2. Distribution of distance to market of surveyed households .......................................70

Table 3. Description of discrete variables................................................................................71

Table 4. Characteristics of surveyed households by communes with discrete variances.........72

Table 5. Correlation between households‟ characteristic and tree planting decision...............73

Table 6. Correlation between households‟ characteristic and forest area will be planted........73

Table 7. Summary of significant relationships among tree planting decision and indicators..74

Table 8. Summary of significant relationships among forest area will be planted drivers and

indicators ..................................................................................................................................75

Table 9. Difference of socio-economic and household characteristic between tree planter and

non-tree planter in Cao Phong district......................................................................................76