5 giải pháp ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô

( So 3(56) - 2008 ^ VAN DE HOM NAY

5 GIAI PHAP ON DINH KINH TE Vl MO

p.v

Nen kinh te Viet Nam dang

ndng. Bing chirng li lam

phit van tiep tuc gia ting,

tham hut ngan sach vi thuong

mai ngiy cing Idn, vi bong

bong gii bat ddng san ngay

cing phinh to.Lim the nio dl

giim lam phit vi ting cudng

sir dn dinh kinh te vT md?

chuyen gia kinh te Dai hgc

Havard tu van chinh sich kinh

te chg Viet Nam vira dua ra 5

khuyen nghi nham dn dinh

kinh te vT md cua Viet Nam

trong mdt nghien cim mdi eiia

minh.

^ I. Phoi hop chinh sach

tien te va ngan sach

Trong dieu kien nen kinh te

dang qua ndng nhu hien nay,

cae chuyen gia ciia trudng Dai

hgc Havard cho ring Chinh

phii can phdi hgp ehinh sich

tien te vi ngan sich de giim

toe do ting trudng ciia tdng

ciu. Tuy nhien, eie chuyen gia

luu y dieu niy cung khdng the

de dang thuc hien trong bdi

canh hgi nhap hien nay ciia

Viet Nam.Cu the nhu trong

trudng hgp ap dung ting lai

suit (duy tri lai suit thue

duong) de giim tdng cau. Mire

lai suit cao hon se tao thuan lgi

cho thu hilt them vdn nude

ngoii tir dd lim ting cung tien.

Ket qui ciia bien phip niy \a

gay them ip lire tang lai suit

ddi vdi Ngan hing Nhi nude,

vi vdng xoiy ting lai suit - thu

hut them vdn nudc ngoai eir

the dugc lap lai_. Cic nhi kinh

te nhan manh ring ehinh sich

tien te vi ngan sich phii dugc

phoi hgp nhjp nhing vi ddng

bg vdi_ nhau. Chinh sach thit

chat tiln te se khdng phat huy

tic dung neu ngan sach tiep tuc

dugc ndi rdng. Ben canh viee

giim dau tu edng, Chinh phii

van phii uu tien eie du in ed

mire sinh Idi cao vi viec eit

giam dau tu cdng eiing se

khdng giiip giam lam phat neu

nhu ddng vdn khdng dugc "thu

hdi" m_gt each hieu qua, lai suit

thuc van tiep tuc am.

2. Mot CO" quan hoach djnh

chinh sach kinh te cao cap

Diy li khuyen nghi mdi,

ding chii y nhat trong nghien

cim nay cua cic chuyen gia. Hg

chg ring tai thdi diem hien nay,

thim quyen ra quyet dinh ehinh

sich d Viet Nam qua phan tin,

vi dieu niy mgt mat can trd sir

phdi hgp hieu qui giira eie eo

quan hoach dinh chinh sich,

mat khie gay khd khan cho cic

nhi lanh dao cao nhat khi hg

phii phin img mgt cich quyet

doin neu khung hoang xiy ra.

Mdt thdng diep ehinh dugc cac

chuyen gia kinh te dua ra la:

"De cd the duy tri su nhat quin

va dn dinh trong he thdng ehinh

sich vT rnd, Viet Nam can tip

trung tham quyen hoach dinh

chinh sach trgng tay mgt co

quan duy nhat." Tir dd, cic

chuyen gia de nghj thinh lap

mdt "sieu bd" hay mgt co quan

hoach dinh chinh sich chung

cho ba ming (dau tu edng, tii

trg dau tu vi ehinh sich tien te)

true_ thuge Thu tudng va ed

quyen ban Idn, cao hon cac bd,

ban nganh, chinh quyen dia

phuong, va tat nhien la ci cic

t a p doi n kinh te nha

nudc.Trong trudng hgp xay ra

khiing hoing, co quan nay ed

quyen dinh chi hay eat giim

nhirng du in dau tu edng chua

thuc su can thiet hay ling phi.

Thinh vien eiia co quan niy phii

dugc lira chgn dua theo ning

lire, ed mire luong tuong duong

vdi nhung chirc vu quan tri d khu

vuc tu. Co quan niy se bio eio

true tiep cho Thii tudng Chinh

phu vi phii dugc bio ve khdi sire

ep ehinh tri vi sir tie ddng ciia

cac nhdm die quyen die lgi.

3. Tang cuo'ng nang luc va

tinh doc lap cho Ngan hang

Nha nudc.

Theo danh gii cua cic chuyen

gia thi hien nay. Ngan hing Nhi

nude Viet Nam khdng dii tham

quyen vi edng cu chinh sich,

ddng thai cau triie quin ly lai bat

cap de ed the van hinh nhu mgt

ngin hing trung uong thue thu.

Chinh vi vay, eie nha kinh te ciia

trudng Havard khuyen nghi

Chinh phu can cd ke hoach td

chirc lai Ngan hing Nhi nudc

theo hudng ting cudng tinh dde

lap (die biet la dge lap ve muc

tieu vi cdng eu) vi kha ning sir

dung eie cdng cu ciia ehinh sich

tien te trong mgt nen kinh te thi

trudng hien dai.

Dieu niy ddi hdi su gdp y vi

tu van ciia cic chuyen gia ve

ngin hang trung uong, bao gdm

mgt sd thdng dde ngin hing

trung uong trong khu vircyi mdt

sd chuyen gia ky thuat qude te da

timg lirn viec tai cac nude Ddng

Nam A. Mac dii viec thue

chuyen gia nude ngoii khi dit

nhung van edn re hon rat nhieu

so vdi cai gii phai tri khi xay

dung mdt ngan hing trung uong

mi khdng cd su dan dit ciia cic

chuyen gia giiu kinh nghiem. De

tranh xung dot lgi ich vi dim

bio tinh bio mat vi lam ehii

chinh sach khi thue chuyen gia

nudc ngoii, Chinh phii Viet Nam

nen tu minh lira chgn vi tra

luong cho chuyen gia chir khdng

nen dua vao ngudn tai trg ciia

cac td chire qude te.

(Xem tie'p trang 72)

Tap chi nghien cCfu Tdi chinh ke todn <^7