Yếu tố tâm lý và những biến động trên thị trường tiền tệ

( So 2 (91). 2011 ) NGHIEN CLPU TRAO DOI

Yeu to tam ly va nhftng bien dong tren

thi trnang tien te

Ths. La Thi Lam

J fong ndm 2010, thi trw&ng tien te Igi trdi qua mpt ndm day bien dpng. Lgm phdt & mirc

11,75% so v&i muc tieu dwgc Quoc hpi de ra Id 6-7% nam. Dien bien ty gid khd that

thw&ng, gidm vdo nlurng thdng ddu ndm nhung Igi tdng mgnh vdo giUa quy 3 tgo nen

can sot ngogi te. Ki tit sau dfft ndng ty gid lien ngdn hdng tir 18,544 len 19,532 VND/USD vdo

ngdy 17/08/2010 den nay, ty gid giao dich tren thi trw&ng tw do luon vug't ty gid niem yet chinh

thircVdo ddu thdng 12/2010, ty gid c& luc dd tien sdt moc 22,000 VND/USD. Nhung ngdy ddu

ndm 201],ty gid tren thi trwd'ng tw do dwgc giao dich khd binh on quanh moc 21,000 VND/USD,

nhirng vdn cao hffn gdn 8% so v&i ty gid niem yet chinh thirc. Nhirng "con dien" ve gid vdng

tw&ng clii tdn tgi trong ndm 2009, lgi tiep tuc tdi dien trong ndm 2010. Vd mpt yeu to khong the

khong nhdc t&i do Id tinh trgng bimg no cupc ganh dua Idi sudt vdo ngdy 8 thdng 12 ndm 2010.

Nhieu ly do ddn den nhirng bien dpng tren dd dwgc gi&i chuyen mon phdn tich, trong d& mpt ly

do khong nho gdy nen nhirng hieu irng cho thi trw&ng tien te Id yeu to tdm ly.

xa hdi chu nghTa. cho tha}'

ddng lien Viet nam van la mdt

ddng tien yeu. Mac dii so vdi

vdi giai doan trudc thap nien

90. Iam phat ve co ban da dugc

kiem soat d mirc dp mpt con

s6. nhung "con sdng" lam phat

van cd nguy ca rinh rap khien

ngudi dan van chua thuc su tin

tuong vao sire mua ciia VND.

Vdi thyc te ciia tinh trang dd

la hda cua nen kinh le, tam Iy

•• Ddng lien manh thi ludn ludn

manh"" ludn hien hiru trong

sii}" nghi cua dan cu. Ngay

ke ca khi d nhieu thdi diem,

viec nam giii' VND cd lgi han

so vdi viec nam giir USD. Sy

thieu tin tudng vao sire mua

VND, se khien cho ngudi dan

vai thap nien tra Iai day, tii' khi 5^1-, iui-,g vang, ngoai te de

chuyen ddi tiv nen kinh te ke j^gj-,-, „'^^^ £)igy ^^y (,5 [^(, (jg,-,g

hoach hda tap trung sang nen j^i-151-1 lu-ong d§n bien dpng cua

kinh Id thi trudng dinh hudng ^y gH, gia vang va kha nang

Djnh nghia khoa hpc ma

Viet Nam sir dyng ve "tam

Iy ngu'di": dd la sy phan anh

hien thuc khach quan vao nao

ngudi thdng qua lang kinh

cua chu the. Tam ly dugc coi

la trang thai suy doan ciia mdi

ngudi, vi vay de dinh lugng

dugc nhii'ng tac ddng cua nd

la hk sii'c khd khan. Mat khac,

viec tac dpng de lam thay ddi

tam ly lai cang khdng phai la

de dang. Cd the Iy giai tam Iy

chung ciia thi trudng qua mdt

vai khia eanh nhu sau:

Thii' nhat, Ddng ti^n VND

chua thyc su khang dinh dugc

"vi the" ddi vdi cac nha dau tu.

Nhirng gi chirng kien qua

huy ddng vdn vao he thdng

ngan hang. Chi can nhirng

bien ddng nhd cua nen kinh te.

Cling dil lao nen nhii'ng cii sdc

cho thi Irudng.

Thii' hai, Viec dieu htinh

cac chfnh siich kinh le vT md

cdn ihieu tfnh bat nhat va

cirng ran.

Tfnh mem deo va Iinh

hoat van ludn thudng dugc

nhac den trong viec dieu hanh

chfnh sach kinh te \'T md ndi

chung \'a chinh sach lien te ndi

rieng. Diro'ng nhien day la mdt

dieu het sire dimg dan trong

van hanh chinh sach, nhung

Cling chinh tir khia canh nay

lai chira dung mat trai cua nd

la muc tieu dieu hanh cung bi

mem deo khi theo dudi, cac bien

phap nhieu khi mang tinh chat

ddi phd vdi thi trudng han la

Tap chf nghien cuTu Tdi chfnh ke todn C21