Việt Nam: Thời cơ và thách thức thời kỳ hậu khủng hoảng tài chính thế giới

PHAN TiCH & Dd BAO KINH TE

VIET NAIVI: THCJl CO VA THACH THL/C

THCJl KY HAU KHUNG HOANG TAI CHINH

THE GlOl

TS. LE HAI M d

Pho Vien trUdng Vi$n Khoa hoc Tai chfnh

BQ Tai chinh

The world is on the way of getting out from crisis much earlier than

projections of many economists. Basically, the world economy is

expected to recover under "V" shape and to regain momentum as

before crisis period by the end of 2010. As regard to economic stim￾ulus package of Vietnam, according to assessments of domestic as well

as international economists, creative solutions of the Government have

been rapidly and comprehensively deployed in sound direction, gen￾erating visible effects and growth perspective of 7-7.5%. Nevertheless,

in case of earlier recovery of the world as well as Vietnam economy

(as in 2009), it is necessary to adjust stimulus package in order to ease

pressures of budget deficit and public debts.

Presently, Vietnam is highly expected to have great potentials for

development and is facing new occasion with specially favorable

opportunities for its true development deserving potentials. However, to

enter new development period, it is advisable for Vietnam to have a

strategic vision in terms of its policies and solutions for post crisis peri￾od with priority issues to be addressed including: competitiveness and

business environment; economic structure, legislative issues and macro

financial and economic stability...

1. The gidi dang nhanh chong ra khoi khung hoang

The gidi dang ra khoi khung hoang sdm hdn nhieu so vdi dp doan

cua cac chuyen gia va cac nha khoa hpc. Theo nhan djnh trPdc day

cua Quy Tien te Quo'c te (IMF), kinh te the gidi se eo kha nang phuc

hoi vao nda dau nam 201 0, tuy nhien, ngay gida thang 9/2009, Giam

ddc dieu hanh cua td chdc nay cho rang "... no cd the diSn ra ngay

trong quy tdi,...". Mac du cac nguyen thu eua nhdm G20 vi n to ra

than trpng, song theo so' lieu cua cac chfnh phu, suy thoai kinh te toan

cau da cham day va bat dau di len td thang 6/2009 nhd tuyen bo' eua

Bp trddng Tai chfnh G20: "Nhdng chinh sach va hanh dong quyet

doan, chwa tdng cd tien le cua chung ta da giup ngan can da lao ddc

cua kinh te the gidi va da thanh cong vdi cac gdi kich cau tren pham

vi toan ciu". Cd the ndi, thanh cong vang dpi nhat cua nhdng chfnh

sach nay chfnh la sd hoi sinh eua mSng tai chfnh.

Can cd vao tinh hinh kinh te

the gidi cung nhd hieu qua cua

cac gdi kfch thfch kinh te, theo

nhan djnh cua tac giS, ve cd b^n,

kinh te the gidi se phuc hoi theo

hinh chd "V" va den het nam

2011 se lay lai phong dp phat

trien nhd thdi ky trddc khung

hoang. Neu nhd thdi gian dau, Idi

the cua gdi kfch thfch thupc ve

kieu can thiep trde tiep (trddng

hdp cua Trung Quo'c), thi trong

thdi gian tdi, du the kfch thfch se

thupc ve cac nen kinh te thi

trddng phat trien.

Ve van de cham ddt gdi kich

thich kinh te, Ddc va Phap de

nghj thpc hien ngay, song cac Bp

tradng Tai chfnh G20 thi cho

rang can tiep tue duy tri, dong

thdi, kien nghj cac chfnh phu

chuan bj ke hoach rut khoi sd can

thiep trde tiep vao nen kinh te,

chpn thdi diem thfch hdp de

cha'm ddt kfch thfch va tang lai

sua't cd b3n bdi neu hanh dpng

cham chap se di n den rui ro lam

phat, tham hpt ngan sach hay

"bong, bong tai san". Ddng thdi,

cac nddc phi i tan dung ed hpi

16 THONG TIN S. DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI So 47 (11.2009)