Understanding China’s Behaviour in the South China Sea : A Defensive Realist Perspective

Understanding

China’s Behaviour

in the South

China Sea

A Defensive Realist Perspective

KLAUS HEINRICH RADITIO

Understanding China’s Behaviour in the South

China Sea

Klaus Heinrich Raditio

Understanding

China’s Behaviour in

the South China Sea

A Defensive Realist Perspective

ISBN 978-981-13-1282-3 ISBN 978-981-13-1283-0 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1283-0

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Klaus Heinrich Raditio

University of Sydney

Sydney, NSW, Australia

For Indonesia

vii

Albert Einstein once said that “peace can only be achieved by understand￾ing”. In a world full of suspicion and distrust, his word is very relevant.

Our knowledge and understanding on other countries, particularly the

emerging power like China, are indeed of paramount importance. For

some, the rise of China offers plenty of opportunities, and success awaits

those who can take advantage of it. However, for others, China is still a

mystery. Its behaviour in the South China Sea, for instance, is perplex￾ing—and sometimes considered worrying.

This book—which offers the perspective of defensive realist—is meant

to deepen our understanding on China and its behaviour in the South

China Sea. This fruitful research serves Indonesia’s diplomacy which con￾sistently promotes inclusiveness and habit of dialogue. Indonesia’s foreign

policy aims at alleviating great powers rivalry, maintaining peace, stability,

and prosperity.

This research was successfully conducted and wins acclaim from promi￾nent scholars in international relations. I congratulate Klaus for presenting

his original idea on China’s behaviour in the South China Sea. I am con￾fident that this book contributes to enhancing our understanding on

China and the current stage of international affairs.

Director General for Asia-Pacific and African

Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Jakarta

Republic of Indonesia

Desra Percaya

Foreword

ix

I have conducted this research under the Australia Awards Scholarship

(AAS) scheme. I dedicate this research to my country and hope this

research can help everyone, especially my fellow Indonesians and Australian

friends, to understand China better.

This research is conducted with generous support from my principal

supervisor Associate Professor Jingdong Yuan and associate supervisor Dr

Justin Hastings. I am grateful also for support from the staff and col￾leagues at the University of Sydney’s Department of Government and

International Relations.

I would also like to thank the National Institute of South China Sea

Studies in Haikou, China, and the Centre for International Law, National

University of Singapore, where I conducted my fieldwork in November

and December 2015.

My deepest appreciation goes to the Foreign Ministry of the Republic

of Indonesia to which I belong, for giving me the opportunity to serve my

country in the scholarly field. I thank the Indonesian Consulate in Sydney

and all the staff for their support and care while I have been undertaking

this research, in particular Mr and Mrs Yayan Mulyana, and Mr Novan

Ivanhoe Saleh.

I thank Dr Desra Percaya, the Director General for Asia-Pacific and

African Affairs, for giving me the opportunities to develop my skill in

diplomacy and scholarly field. I am most grateful for my colleagues’ sup￾port, particularly Yvonne Mewengkang, Rifky Akbar, Raka Pamungkas,

Gina Virginianty, Diah Setyorini, and Junaedi.

Preface

x PREFACE

This research could not have been completed without moral support

from my family, who created a positive atmosphere and helped me to be a

better person.

Ad Maiorem Dei Gloriam!

Sydney, NSW, Australia Klaus Heinrich Raditio

April 2018

xi

Contents

1 Introduction 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Literature Review 3

1.2.1 Is the Nature of China’s SCS Behaviour Changing? 3

1.2.2 The Rationale for China’s Changing Behaviour

in the SCS 8

1.3 The Contributions 11

1.3.1 Contribution 1: Theoretical Analysis 12

1.3.2 Contribution 2: Systematic Explanation 12

1.4 Research Questions 12

1.5 The Structure of the Book 14

2 Theoretical Framework: Security Dilemma Reconsidered 19

2.1 Security Dilemma: The Concept 19

2.2 The Root of the Security Dilemma 22

2.3 Security Dilemma: The Constitutive Elements 24

2.4 The Actors within the Security Dilemma 26

2.5 Security Dilemma, Spiral, and Deterrence 29

2.6 Are There Variants of Security Dilemmas? 32

2.7 Security Dilemma and Conflict of Interest 34

2.8 The Continuum of the Security Dilemma 37

2.9 Can a Security Dilemma Be Mitigated? 41

xii

3 China’s Claim in the South China Sea 49

3.1 China’s Claim in the SCS 49

3.2 China’s Claim and Its Compatibility with International

Law 52

3.2.1 Land Claims 52

3.2.2 Maritime Claims 57

3.3 The UNCLOS Tribunal Ruling 60

3.3.1 The Arbitration Process 60

3.3.2 The Award of the Tribunal 61

3.4 Conclusion 63

4 China’s Interests in the South China Sea 69

4.1 China’s Growing Interests in the SCS 69

4.1.1 Resources 69

4.1.2 Security 71

4.1.3 Geopolitics 76

4.1.4 Taiwan 81

4.1.5 The Legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party 83

4.2 Conclusion: In Defence of China’s Interest in SCS 86

5 China’s Defection in the South China Sea 95

5.1 China as a Defensive Realist State 95

5.2 The SCS as a Litmus Test for China’s Defensive Realist

Behaviour 97

5.3 Brief History of Conflict in the SCS 100

5.4 Does China’s Behaviour in the SCS Reflect that

of a Defensive Realist State? 105

5.4.1 Is China Open to Non-military Solutions for the SCS

Dispute? 105

5.4.2 Does China Show Self-restraint in the SCS? 107

5.4.3 Does China Adopt Reassurance Policies in the SCS? 110

5.5 China’s Defection in the SCS 112

5.6 Conclusion 116

6 Security Dilemma Between China and Other South China

Sea Claimant States 125

6.1 Introduction 125

6.2 The Elements of the Security Dilemma in the SCS 127

Contents

xiii

6.3 Conflict of Interest 130

6.4 The Continuum of the Security Dilemma 132

6.5 The Rationale of China’s Defection in the SCS 137

6.6 How Can China Mitigate the Security Dilemma? 144

7 Security Dilemma Between China vis-à-vis the United

States of America in the South China Sea 153

7.1 The Elements of a Security Dilemma 154

7.2 Conflict of Interests 160

7.2.1 Maritime Access 161

7.2.2 China’s Rise and the US’ Global Position 162

7.2.3 The Asymmetrical Interests Between Two Great

Powers in the Asian Context 165

7.3 The Continuum of Security Dilemma 166

7.4 How Far Can China Go? 171

7.5 The Future of Sino-US Rivalry in the SCS 174

8 Conclusion 185

8.1 Summary of the Research Findings 185

8.2 Significance for Theory and Policy 188

Appendix A: Chinese Nota Verbale (CML/17/2009)

to the UN Secretary General, 7 May 2009 191

Appendix B: Diplomatic Note from Pham Van Dong to Zhou

Enlai (14 September 1958) 193

Appendix C: “Philippines v. China Arbitration Case: Summary

of the Philippines Submissions and Tribunal Awards” 197

Index 205

Contents

xv

ADIZ Air Defence Identification Zone

ARF ASEAN Regional Forum

ASEAN Association of the Southeast Asian Nations

CCP Chinese Communist Party

CMS China Marine Surveillance

CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Cooperation

DoC Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea

DRV Democratic Republic of Vietnam

ECS East China Sea

EDCA Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement

EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone

FONOP Freedom of Navigation Operation

ICC International Criminal Court

ICJ International Court of Justice

ITLOS International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

JMSU Joint Marine Surveillance Undertaking

LSG Leading Small Group

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

OBOR One Belt One Road

PCA Permanent Court of Arbitration

PLA People’s Liberation Army

PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy

PRC People’s Republic of China

RIMPAC Rim of the Pacific Exercise

ROC Republic of China

RVN Republic of Vietnam

SCS South China Sea

Abbreviations

xvi ABBREVIATIONS

SRV Socialist Republic of Vietnam

TAC ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation

THAAD Terminal High Altitude Area Defence

UNCLCS United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf

UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

xvii

Fig. 2.1 The continuum of the security dilemma process (modified from

Tang, A Theory of Security Strategies for Our Time: Defensive

Realism, 2010, p. 65) 38

Fig. 2.2 Kydd’s (2005) spiral equilibrium 41

Fig. 3.1 The Paracel Islands—depicted by M. Glinoga 53

Fig. 4.1 The first and second island chains as depicted by A.B. Maramis 79

List of Figures

xix

Table 1.1 The events that signify China’s changing behaviour 4

Table 2.1 Offensive and defensive realist states in brief 29

Table 2.2 Countries with which China has a security dilemma 36

Table 5.1 China’s actions in the SCS and their significance 116

Table 6.1 Source of the activation of the security dilemma in the SCS 134

Table 7.1 The differences between the two security dilemmas 167

Table 7.2 Sources of the activation of the security dilemma between

China and the US 168

List of Tables