Time series study on the effects of daily average temperature on the mortality from respiratory

Guo et al. BMC Public Health (2022) 22:1001

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13384-6

RESEARCH

Time series study on the efects of daily

average temperature on the mortality

from respiratory diseases and circulatory

diseases: a case study in Mianyang City

Hongju Guo1†, Peipei Du2,3†, Han Zhang4

, Zihui Zhou3

, Minyao Zhao3

, Jie Wang3

, Xuemei Shi4

, Jiayi Lin3

,

Yulu Lan5

, Xiang Xiao6

, Caiyun Zheng7

, Xiaofeng Ma3

, Chengyao Liu3

, Junjie Zou3

, Shu Yang2*, Jiawei Luo8* and

Xixi Feng3*

Abstract

Background: Climate change caused by environmental pollution is the most important one of many environmental

health hazards currently faced by human beings. In particular, the extreme temperature is an important risk factor for

death from respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study aims to explore the meteorological-health efect and fnd

out the vulnerable individuals of extreme temperature events in a less developed city in western China.

Method: We collected the meteorological data and data of death caused by respiratory and circulatory diseases in

Mianyang City from 2013 to 2019. The nonlinear distributed lag model and the generalized additive models were

combined to study the infuence of daily average temperature (DAT) on mortality from respiratory and circulatory

diseases in diferent genders, ages.

Results: The exposure-response curves between DAT and mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases pre￾sented a nonlinear characteristic of the “V” type. Cumulative Relative Risk of 30days (CRR30) of deaths from respiratory

diseases with 4.48 (2.98, 6.73) was higher than that from circulatory diseases with 2.77 (1.96, 3.92) at extremely low

temperature, while there was no obvious diference at extremely high temperature. The health efects of low temper￾atures on the respiratory system of people of all ages and genders were persistent, while that of high temperatures

were acute and short-term. The circulatory systems of people aged <65 years were more susceptible to acute efects

of cold temperatures, while the efects were delayed in females and people aged ≥65 years.

Conclusion: Both low and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases.

Cold efects seemed to last longer than heat did.

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Open Access

†

Hongju Guo and Peipei Du contributed equally to this work.

*Correspondence: [email protected]; [email protected];

[email protected]

2

School of Intelligent Medicine, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese

Medicine, Chengdu, China

3

School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, China 8

West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Clinical Medical

College of Sichuan, University, Chengdu, China

Full list of author information is available at the end of the article