The next 100 years : a forecast for the 21st century : 1st ed.

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THE NEXT 100 YEARS

Also by Geor ge Friedman

AMERICA’S SECRET WAR

The Future of War

THE INTELLIGENCE EDGE

THE COMING WAR WITH JAPAN

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE FRANKFURT SCHOOL

THE

NEXT

100

YEARS

A F O R E CA ST F O R TH E 21ST C E NTU RY

Geor ge Friedman

Doubleday

N E W Y O R K L O N DON T ORON T O S Y D N E Y AUCKLAN D

Copyright © 2009 by George Friedman

All Rights Reserved

Published in the United States by Doubleday,

an imprint of The Doubleday Publishing Group,

a division of Random House, Inc., New York.

www.doubleday.com

doubleday and the DD colophon are registered trademarks of

Random House, Inc.

All maps created by Stratfor

Book design by Elizabeth Rendfleisch

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Friedman, George.

The next 100 years : a forecast for the 21st century / George Friedman. —

1st ed.

p. cm.

1. International relations—21st century. 2. Twenty-first century—

Forecasts. 3. World politics—21st century—Forecasting. 4. International

relations—Forecasting. I. Title. II. Title: Next hundred years.

JZ1305.F75 2009

303.49—dc22

2008026423

eISBN: 978-0-385-52294-6

v1.0

For Meredith, muse and taskmaster

To him who looks upon the world rationally, the world in

turn presents a rational aspect. The relation is mutual.

—George W. F. Hegel

CONTENTS

list of illustrations xi

author’s note xiii

Overture: An Introduction to the American Age

1

C H A P T E R 1

The Dawn of the American Age

15

C H A P T E R 2

Earthquake: The U.S.–Jihadist War

31

C H A P T E R 3

Population, Computers, and Culture Wars

50

C H A P T E R 4

The New Fault Lines

65

x content s

C H A P T E R 5

China 2020: Paper Tiger

88

C H A P T E R 6

Russia 2020: Rematch

101

C H A P T E R 7

American Power and the Crisis of 2030

120

C H A P T E R 8

A New World Emerges

136

C H A P T E R 9

The 2040s: Prelude to War

153

C H A P T E R 1 0

Preparing for War

174

C H A P T E R 11

World War: A Scenario

193

C H A P T E R 12

The 2060s: A Golden Decade

212

C H A P T E R 13

2080: The United States, Mexico,

and the Struggle for the Global Heartland

223

epilogue 249

acknowledgments 255

List of Illustrations

Atlantic Europe 20

The Soviet Empire 25

Yugoslavia and the Balkans 33

Earthquake Zone 35

Islamic World—Modern 36

U.S. River System 41

South America: Impassable Terrain 43

Pacific Trade Routes 67

Successor States to the Soviet Union 71

Ukraine’s Strategic Significance 72

Four Europes 75

Turkey in 2008 81

Ottoman Empire 82

Mexico Prior to Texas Rebellion 85

China: Impassable Terrain 89

China’s Population Density 90

Silk Road 91

The Caucasus 108

Central Asia 110

Poacher’s Paradise 137

xii list of illustrations

Japan 140

Middle East Sea Lanes 158

Poland 1660 161

The Skagerrak Straits 162

Turkish Sphere of Influence 2050 203

U.S. Hispanic Population (2000) 226

Levels of Economic and Social Development 233

Mexican Social and Economic Development 234

author’s note

I have no crystal ball. I do, however, have a method that has served me well,

imperfect though it might be, in understanding the past and anticipating

the future. Underneath the disorder of history, my task is to try to see the

order—and to anticipate what events, trends, and technology that order will

bring forth. Forecasting a hundred years ahead may appear to be a frivolous

activity, but, as I hope you will see, it is a rational, feasible process, and it is

hardly frivolous. I will have grandchildren in the not-distant future, and

some of them will surely be alive in the twenty-second century. That thought

makes all of this very real.

In this book, I am trying to transmit a sense of the future. I will, of

course, get many details wrong. But the goal is to identify the major

tendencies—geopolitical, technological, demographic, cultural, military—

in their broadest sense, and to define the major events that might take place.

I will be satisfied if I explain something about how the world works today,

and how that, in turn, defines how it will work in the future. And I will be

delighted if my grandchildren, glancing at this book in 2100, have reason to

say, “Not half bad.”