Thành công trong việc kiểm soát đô la hóa - Kinh nghiệm của Ngân hàng nhà nước Việt Nam

HOAT DONG NGAN HANG TRUNG DONG C

• '^ua tren mo hinh cua Sami

M BBen Naceur, Amr Hosny

J—« ^ va Gregory Hadjian

(2015), De Nicolo vd cong su

(2005), Neanidis vd Sawa (2009),

Kokenyne vd cong su (2010),

chung toi xem xet cdc nhan to

gidi thich cho vdn de do la hoa

tien gui tai Viet Nam trong giai

dogn tic thdng 6/2011 - 12/2015

(55 thdng). Kit qud nghien ciru

dinh luong cho thdy, thay ddi ty

gid USD/VND ty le nghich vdi ty

le do la hoa tien gui; tuy nhien,

ty le thuan vai ty le dd la hoa cho

vay, ham y mac dii VND mdt gid,

nguai gui tien vdn co xu huong

chuyen sang tien VND do muc do

chinh lech Iai sudt giua VND vd

USD hdp ddn han. Kit qud nay

trdi nguac vdi nghien ciru cua

Sami Ben Naceur, Amr Hosny vd

Gregory Hadjian (2015) cho cdc

quoc gia khdi Kavkaz vd Trung

A (Caucasus and Central Asia

- CCA), do Viet Nam dp dung

chinh sach can thiep ddi vdi Iai

sudt huy dong bang USD Idm

cho ddng ngoai te trd nen kem

hdp ddn han ddng bdn te. Lam

phat cd y nghia quan trpng trong

gidi thich muc dd do la hoa tai

Viet Nam, mice do lam phat cdng

cao, dd la hoa cdng gia tdng vd

nguac Iai. Mdi tuong quan nay

ciing ton tai a cdc qudc gia CCA

hay chdu My Latin... Bien ddng

ty gid USD/VND vd biin ddng

lam phdt cdng manh, ty le dd la

hda tien giei cdng cao, tuy nhien

ty 1$ do la hoa cho vay cdng

gidm, phan anh ngudi giii tien co

xu hudng chuyin sang ngoai te

ddng thdi ngudi di vay gidm vay

bang ngoai te trong giai dogn ty

gid vd lam phdt nhieu bat dn. Md

hinh nghien cuu chi ra rdng, viec

NHNN chuyen ddi each thuc dieu

' Vu On dinh lien te - t^i chinh, NHNN

THANH GONO TRDNG VIEC KI^M SDAT 110 U HDA -

KINH NGHIEM CDA NGiiN HANG NHA NIfliC Vl|T NAM

'^^JPham Tiin Phong, Pham VU Thang Long, Hoang Lan Hir&ng *

hdnh ty gid sang ty gid trung tdm

(linh hoat han) Id phit hop nhdm

trdnh cdc cu sdc vi diiu chinh ty

gid nhu trudc day, hudng tdi diiu

hdnh chinh sdch tiin te theo ca

chi lam phdt muc tiiu. Ngoai cdc

bien phap hdnh chinh, cdn tdng

cudng them cdc bien phdp thi

trudng nhdm tdng tinh hdp ddn

cua ddng bdn te (nghiep vu, thi

trudng phdi sinh ngoai hdi...),

tiin tdi gidm bat can thi^p chinh

sdch vdo thi trudng ngoai hdi.

Ddng thdi, khi dp dung cdc bien

phdp chdng do la hoa. cdc nhd

hoach dinh chinh sdch cung cdn

xem xet cdc rui ro tie khd ndng

rut vdn ngoai te ra khdi hi thdng

ngdn hdng ciing nhu hien tuong

thdo chgy vdn, ddng thdi cdn hieu

ro y nghia ciia viec truyen thdng

minh bach vd hieu qud Id dac biet

quan trong trong viec xay dung

long tin cua cdng chung vdo cdc

chinh sdch tiin te duoc dp dung￾1. Gidi thieu

"Dd la hda" dugc dinh nghia

la viec nam giu cac tai san bang

ngo^i td Clia ngudi cu tni trong

nude, la mot hien tuong phd bidn

d cac qudc gia dang phdt tridn

ciing nhu cac ndn kinh td chuyen

ddi, cd ty le lam phat cao. Theo

IMF (2000), dd la hda cd thd giiip

han chd rui ro va dn dinh gia tri

ddng tien ciing nhu kidm soat

lam phat, ddng thdi loai bd hien

tugng dSu ca chenh lech ty gia

giiia ddng ban te va ngoai td, giiip

thi trudng vdn dn dinh va can can

thanh toan it phai ddi mat vdi nil

ro han. Mac dii vay, dd la hda

ciing tdn t^i nhidu mat trai. Viec

sii dung ngoai td lam ddng tien

chinh se khidn cho cac chinh sach

vd kinh td, nhat la chinh sach tien

te trd ndn thidu chu ddng, anh

hudng tidu c\rc tdi tang trudng

kinh td. Bdn canh dd, vdi mdt

qudc gia bj dd la hoa cao, khi xay

ra khung hoang ngan hang, ngSn

hang trung uang se khd thuc hidn

chuc nang ngudi cho vay cudi

cung ddi vdi he thdng ngan hang

do khdng the in thdm tidn dd giai

quydt khung hoang.'

Cho tdi nay, nhieu nghidn

ciiu trdn thd gidi cho th§y,

dd la hda la van de quan trong

can xem xet khi thidt kd chinh

sach kinh td vT md. Calvo va

Vegh (1997), Balino et al.

(1999), Berg va Borensztein

(2000) nhan dinh rang, ddi vdi

chinh sach tien te dua tren cung

tidn muc tidu (money targeting),

viec cho vao hay loai bd ngoai td

ra khdi tdng cung tidn cd y nghia

rat quan trong. Nguydn Thanh

Hai (2004) cho rang, dd la hda

mang Iai nhidu rui ro ddi vdi dn

dinh tai chinh va khien cho qudc

gia de chiu anh hudng tieu cue

tu nhiing cii sdc ngoai Iai; ddng

thdi nhSn manh tam quan trpng

cua vide tang cudng khudn khd

phap ly, thuc hien cac chinh sach

giam bat s\r hap dan cua ngoai td

nham chdng do la hda. Michael

Goujon (2006) chi ra rSng, vide

lira chgn chinh sach ty gia ik mSu

chdt vi miic do do la hda la tac

nhan lam nghiem trpng han su

TAPCHINGANHANG I 807 I THANG 4/2016 Q

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