Tài liệu The Advanced Technology Program: Assessing Outcomes pdf

CHARLES W. WESSNER, EDITOR

Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy

Policy and Global Affairs

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS

Washington, D.C.

The Advanced Technology Program:

Assessing Outcomes

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the

National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of

Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the

committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for

appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. 50SBNB9C1080 between the National Academy of Sci￾ences and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Any opinions, findings, conclusions,

or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily

reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-07410-X

Limited copies are available from Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy, National

Research Council, 1055 Thomas Jefferson Street, N.W., Suite 2014, Washington, D.C. 20007; 202-

334-2200.

Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Av￾enue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Wash￾ington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu.

Printed in the United States of America

Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of

distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the

furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the

authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate

that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr.

Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of

the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers.

It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with

the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal govern￾ment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed

at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the supe￾rior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Acad￾emy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to

secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of

policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibil￾ity given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to

the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, re￾search, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in

1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s

purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in

accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the

principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National

Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the

scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Acad￾emies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are

chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

v

*As of February 2001.

Steering Committee for Government-Industry Partnerships for the

Development of New Technologies*

Gordon Moore, Chair

Chairman Emeritus

Intel Corporation

M. Kathy Behrens

Managing Partner

Robertson Stephens Investment

Management

and STEP Board

Michael Borrus

Managing Director

The Petkevich Group, LLC

Iain M. Cockburn

Professor of Finance and Economics

Boston University

Kenneth Flamm

Dean Rusk Chair

in International Affairs

LBJ School of Public Affairs

University of Texas at Austin

James F. Gibbons

Professor of Engineering

Stanford University

W. Clark McFadden

Partner

Dewey Ballantine

Burton J. McMurtry

General Partner

Technology Venture Investors

William J. Spencer, Vice-Chair

Chairman Emeritus

SEMATECH

and STEP Board

Mark B. Myers

Senior Vice-President, retired

Xerox Corporation

and STEP Board

Richard Nelson

George Blumenthal Professor of

International and Public Affairs

Columbia University

Edward E. Penhoet

Dean, School of Public Health

University of California at Berkeley

and STEP Board

Charles Trimble

Vice-Chairman

Trimble Navigation

John P. Walker

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Axys Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Patrick Windham

President, Windham Consulting;

and Lecturer, Stanford University

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Charles W. Wessner

Study Director

Duncan Brown

Consultant

Project Staff*

McAlister T. Clabaugh

Program Associate

David E. Dierksheide

Program Associate

Contributors**

*As of February 2001.

**Biographies of the contributors are included in Annex B.

David Austin

Resources for the Future

Alan P. Balutis*

National Institute of Standards and

Technology

Tayler H. Bingham

Research Triangle Institute

Jeffrey H. Dyer

Brigham Young University

Maryann P. Feldman

Johns Hopkins University

Maryellen R. Kelley*

National Institute of Standards and

Technology

Barbara Lambis

National Institute of Standards and

Technology

Albert N. Link

University of North Carolina at

Greensboro

Molly Macauley

Resources for the Future

Benjamin C. Powell

University of Pennsylvania

Rosalie Ruegg

Technology Impact Assessment

(TIA) Consulting

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*As of February 2001.

For the National Research Council (NRC), this project was overseen by the

Board on Science, Technology and Economic Policy (STEP), a standing board of

the NRC established by the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering and

the Institute of Medicine in 1991. The mandate of the STEP Board is to integrate

understanding of scientific, technological, and economic elements in the formu￾lation of national policies to promote the economic well-being of the United

States. A distinctive characteristic of STEP’s approach is its frequent interactions

with public and private-sector decision makers. STEP bridges the disciplines of

business management, engineering, economics, and the social sciences to bring

diverse expertise to bear on pressing public policy questions. The members of the

STEP Board* and the NRC staff are listed below:

Dale Jorgenson, Chair

Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor

of Economics

Harvard University

M. Kathy Behrens

Managing Partner

Robertson Stephens Investment

Management

Vinton G. Cerf

Senior Vice-President

WorldCom

Bronwyn Hall

Professor of Economics

University of California at Berkeley

James Heckman

Henry Schultz Distinguished Service

Professor of Economics

University of Chicago

Ralph Landau

Consulting Professor of Economics

Stanford University

Richard Levin

President

Yale University

William J. Spencer, Vice-Chair

Chairman Emeritus

SEMATECH

David T. Morgenthaler

Founding Partner

Morgenthaler

Mark B. Myers

Senior Vice-President, retired

Xerox Corporation

Roger Noll

Morris M. Doyle Centennial

Professor of Economics

Stanford University

Edward E. Penhoet

Dean, School of Public Health

University of California at Berkeley

William Raduchel

Chief Technology Officer

AOL Time Warner

Alan Wm. Wolff

Managing Partner

Dewey Ballantine

viii

*As of February 2001.

STEP Staff*

Stephen A. Merrill

Executive Director

Philip Aspden

Senior Program Officer

Camille M. Collett

Program Associate

David E. Dierksheide

Program Associate

Charles W. Wessner

Program Director

Craig M. Schultz

Research Associate

McAlister T. Clabaugh

Program Associate

viii

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National Research Council

Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy

Sponsors

The National Research Council gratefully acknowledges

the support of the following sponsors:

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Office of the Director, Defense Research & Engineering

National Science Foundation

U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Naval Research

National Institutes of Health

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Sandia National Laboratories

Electric Power Research Institute

International Business Machines

Kulicke and Soffa Industries

Merck and Company

Milliken Industries

Motorola

Nortel

Proctor and Gamble

Silicon Valley Group, Incorporated

Advanced Micro Devices

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this

publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of

the project sponsors.

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Contents

FOREWORD 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

I. PREFACE 11

II. INTRODUCTION 25

A. Background 25

B. Overview of the Papers 59

C. Summary of Symposium Proceedings 63

III. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 85

IV. PROCEEDINGS

Welcome 101

Charles Wessner, National Research Council

Introduction to the Symposium 103

Clark McFadden, Dewey Ballantine

Panel I: The ATP Objective: Addressing the Financing Gap for

Enabling Technologies 105

Moderator: Charles Trimble, Trimble Navigation

xii CONTENTS

The View from Industry: A Start-up’s Perspective 105

Elizabeth Downing, 3D Technology Laboratories

The Venture Capital Perspective 108

David Morgenthaler, Morgenthaler Venture Capital

Lowering Hurdle Rates for New Technologies 112

Kathleen Kingscott, International Business Machines

Corporation

Panel II: ATP’s Assessment Program 117

Moderator: David Goldston, Office of Congressman

Sherwood Boehlert

Delivering Public Benefits with Private-Sector

Efficiency Through the ATP 117

Rosalie Ruegg, Advanced Technology Program

Perspectives on Program Evaluation 123

Irwin Feller, Pennsylvania State University

Discussants: 126

Nicholas Vonortas, George Washington University

James Turner, House Science Committee

Panel III: Stimulating R&D Investment 131

Moderator: David Finifter, College of William & Mary

Assessing the ATP: Halo Effects and Added Value 131

Maryann Feldman, Johns Hopkins University

Cheap Gas?: Joint Ventures and Fuel Efficiency 136

Mark A. Ehlen, National Institute of Standards

and Technology

Design Freedoms and Enhanced Value 140

Larry Rhoades, Extrude Hone Corporation

Panel IV: Assessing Progress: Case Study Cluster 145

Moderator: David Austin, Resources for the Future

Xeno-Organ Transplant 146

David Ayares, PPL Therapeutics, Inc.

CONTENTS xiii

Extending Case Study Methodologies For Technology

Policy Evaluation 149

Todd A. Watkins, Lehigh University

Economic Returns to New Medical Technologies 154

Tayler Bingham, Research Triangle Institute

Discussant: Henry Kelly, White House Office of Science and 157

Technology Policy

Panel V: Assessing the ATP Assessment Program:

Challenges and Policy Issues 160

Moderator: Charles Wessner, National Research Council

Panelists: 160

John Yochelson, Council on Competitiveness

Maryann Feldman, Johns Hopkins University

William Bonvillian, Office of Senator Joseph Lieberman

David Goldston, Office of Congressman Sherwood Boehlert

Todd A. Watkins, Lehigh University

Concluding Remarks 169

Charles Wessner, National Research Council

Boxes within the Summary Report

Box A. Partnerships Reviewed by the Government-Industry

Partnerships Study 18

Box B. Principal Federal Legislation Related to Cooperative

Technology Programs 27

Box C. R&D Programs: The Challenge for Policymakers 34

Box D. What is the Advanced Technology Program? 40

Box E. Critical Characteristics of the Advanced Technology

Program 41

Box F. GAO Reviews of the ATP 45

Box G. “Picking Winners and Losers” and the Advanced

Technology Program 51

Box H. Why Should Government Fund Promising Technologies? 65

Box I. A Venture Capitalist’s Perspective on the ATP 66

Box J. Advancing the Art of Program Assessment 68

V. RESEARCH PAPERS

The ATP Competition Structure 175

Alan P. Balutis and Barbara Lambis, National Institute

of Standards and Technology

xiv CONTENTS

Leveraging Research and Development: The Impact of the

Advanced Technology Program 189

Maryann P. Feldman, Johns Hopkins University,

and Maryellen R. Kelley, National Institute of Standards

and Technology

Estimating Economic Benefits from ATP Funding of

New Medical Technologies 211

Tayler H. Bingham, Research Triangle Institute

Enhanced R&D Efficiency in an ATP-funded Joint Venture 223

Albert N. Link, University of North Carolina at Greensboro

Estimating Future Benefits from ATP Funding of Digital

Data Storage 239

David Austin and Molly Macauley, Resources for the Future

Perspectives on the Determinants of Success in ATP-sponsored

R&D Joint Ventures: The Views of Participants 249

Jeffrey H. Dyer, Brigham Young University,

and Benjamin C. Powell, University of Pennsylvania

Taking a Step Back: An Early Results Overview of

Fifty ATP Awards 259

Rosalie Ruegg, Technology Impact Assessment (TIA) Consulting

VI. ANNEX

A. Authorizing Legislation for the Advanced Technology

Program 281

B. Biographies of Contributors 287

C. Participants List

25 April 2000 Conference 295

D. Internal and External Reviews of the ATP, Analyses

Commissioned by the Office of Economic Assessment 299

E. Bibliography 303