Tài liệu Public Attitudes in Contemporary SA docx

Public Attitudes in

Contemporary South Africa

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© 2002 Human Sciences Research Council

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Contents

Contributors................................................................................................................................................................. ix

Preface............................................................................................................................................................................... xi

Introduction: Public opinion and the prospects for democratic

consolidation in South Africa 1999–2001...................................................................................................... 1

1 Politics, governance and civic knowledge ............................................................................................. 12

Satisfaction with the government ......................................................................................................... 13

Race........................................................................................................................................................................... 16

Living standard measurements (LSMs)............................................................................................. 19

Institutional trust............................................................................................................................................. 20

Race and living standard measurements........................................................................................... 23

Civic knowledge................................................................................................................................................ 25

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 26

References............................................................................................................................................................. 27

2 Political party preferences............................................................................................................................. 28

Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 28

Intended votes.................................................................................................................................................... 29

References............................................................................................................................................................. 33

3 Provincial living preferences in South Africa..................................................................................... 34

Provincial place preference: A general picture............................................................................... 36

Geographical preference and demographic characteristics................................................... 37

Race................................................................................................................................................................... 37

Age..................................................................................................................................................................... 40

Language........................................................................................................................................................ 40

Income............................................................................................................................................................ 41

Educational qualification .................................................................................................................... 41

Current employment and occupation status.......................................................................... 41

Relationships between social well-being and preference for province ........................... 41

Migration tendencies .................................................................................................................................... 43

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 45

References............................................................................................................................................................. 46

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4 Identity and voting trends in South Africa ......................................................................................... 47

Identity, instrumentality and voting in ‘white’South Africa ................................................ 49

The racial census approach........................................................................................................................ 53

Self-identity and voting preferences..................................................................................................... 55

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 59

References............................................................................................................................................................. 60

5 Race relations....................................................................................................................................................... 63

Analysis of the survey.................................................................................................................................... 64

Factors influencing racial discrimination and racism in South Africa........................... 70

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 72

References............................................................................................................................................................. 72

6 Addressing HIV/AIDS .................................................................................................................................... 73

Results..................................................................................................................................................................... 75

Sense of concern ....................................................................................................................................... 75

Level of knowledge.................................................................................................................................. 75

Perceived risk.............................................................................................................................................. 76

Reported sexual behaviour and condom use.......................................................................... 76

‘Helpless, hopeless and meaningless’outlook on life........................................................ 79

‘Helpless, hopeless and meaningless’stance towards HIV/AIDS protection ...... 80

Discussion............................................................................................................................................................. 81

Chi-Squared Test Results............................................................................................................................. 81

Concern, knowledge and perceived risk are high ................................................................ 82

Sexual behaviour and condom use ............................................................................................... 83

Significant protection constraints: Lack of hope ................................................................. 84

The way forward............................................................................................................................................... 85

References............................................................................................................................................................. 86

7 Spirituality in South Africa: Christian beliefs................................................................................... 87

Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 87

Attendance at religious meetings........................................................................................................... 87

Public opinion and church attendance .............................................................................................. 89

Views about Christian principles........................................................................................................... 90

1. Prayer................................................................................................................................................................ 91

2. Extra-marital sex ....................................................................................................................................... 91

3. Jesus as the solution................................................................................................................................. 91

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4. Life after death ............................................................................................................................................ 92

5. Spiritual re-births .................................................................................................................................... 92

Christian belief.................................................................................................................................................. 92

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 96

References............................................................................................................................................................. 96

8 Perceptions about economic issues........................................................................................................... 97

Perceptions about economic conditions in South Africa ...................................................... 97

Effects of government policies on the general economic situation

in the country..................................................................................................................................................... 99

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 101

9 National priorities............................................................................................................................................. 102

Previous surveys on national priorities.............................................................................................. 102

In regard to job creation, the results by province appear in Figure 9.2......................... 103

Comparison by population group......................................................................................................... 104

Comparison by income group................................................................................................................. 105

Comparison by area type............................................................................................................................ 105

Comparison by highest education qualification .......................................................................... 107

Comparison by employment status..................................................................................................... 107

Comparison by age category..................................................................................................................... 107

Comparison of how government could best reduce crime by province ....................... 108

Comparison by area type............................................................................................................................ 108

Comparison by population group......................................................................................................... 110

Comparison by personal monthly income ...................................................................................... 110

Comparisons by employment status, age and highest

educational qualification............................................................................................................................. 111

1O Environmental concerns................................................................................................................................ 113

Major environmental issues at a national level............................................................................. 113

Major environmental issues at a local level..................................................................................... 116

Socio-economic profile of people identifying environmental issues

at a local level...................................................................................................................................................... 118

Access to water........................................................................................................................................... 118

Clean air – prevention of air pollution ...................................................................................... 119

Access to land ............................................................................................................................................. 120

Protection of indigenous plants/vegetation............................................................................. 120

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vi

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 122

References............................................................................................................................................................. 123

11 Civil society participation............................................................................................................................. 124

Membership to civil society organisations in the 2001 survey............................................ 125

Distribution of membership of civil society organisations................................................... 126

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 128

12 Information and communications technologies................................................................................ 129

Access to information and communications technologies.................................................... 130

Access to communications technologies considering other factors................................. 130

Radio station preferences and time spent......................................................................................... 133

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 135

13 Families and social networks....................................................................................................................... 136

Size of social networks.................................................................................................................................. 137

Immediate family members............................................................................................................... 137

Extended family members.................................................................................................................. 138

Workplace friendships.......................................................................................................................... 139

Community friendships....................................................................................................................... 140

Other friendships..................................................................................................................................... 141

Total number of friends....................................................................................................................... 142

Frequency of contact...................................................................................................................................... 142

Frequency of contact with favourite sibling............................................................................ 142

Frequency of contact with child over the age of 18 years............................................... 143

Frequency of contact with parents................................................................................................ 144

Frequency of contact with closest friend................................................................................... 145

Summary............................................................................................................................................................... 146

Type of community................................................................................................................................ 146

Gender ............................................................................................................................................................ 147

Race................................................................................................................................................................... 147

Age..................................................................................................................................................................... 148

Composite social capital score......................................................................................................... 149

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 150

References............................................................................................................................................................. 151

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14 Human rights...................................................................................................................................................... 152

Knowledge of human rights institutions.......................................................................................... 153

Gender .................................................................................................................................................................... 155

Race........................................................................................................................................................................... 155

Standard of living ............................................................................................................................................ 156

Belief in human rights.................................................................................................................................. 159

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 163

References............................................................................................................................................................. 164

Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................................ 165

Introduction........................................................................................................................................................ 165

The first SAARF Living Standards Measure (LSM).................................................................... 165

1993 SAARF LSMs ......................................................................................................................................... 166

Later developments of the LSM concept........................................................................................... 167

1995 SAARF LSMs.......................................................................................................................................... 167

2000 SAARF LSMs.......................................................................................................................................... 168

The SAARF UNIVERSAL LSM .............................................................................................................. 169

SAARF LSM ....................................................................................................................................................... 170

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ix

Contributors

Abigail Baim-Lance is an intern at the Fogarty HIV/Aids Research Training Programme

at the Nelson Mandela School of Medicine.

John Daniel is head of the Publications Department and a research director in the

Democracy and Governance programme of the Human Sciences Research Council.

Christian De Vos is an intern with the Democracy and Governance programme at the

Human Sciences Research Council in Durban.

Ronnie Donaldson is a senior lecturer in the Department of Geographical Science at

Vista University in Silverton.

Arlene Grossberg is a senior researcher in the Democracy and Governance programme

of the Human Sciences Research Council.

Adam Habib is a part-time research director at the Human Sciences Research Council,

Professor in the School of Development Studies and Director of the Centre for Civil

Society, University of Natal, Durban.

Craig Higson-Smith is a senior research specialist in the Child, Youth and Family

Development research programme of the Human Sciences Research Council.

Mbithi wa Kivilu is a chief research specialist in the Surveys, Analyses, Modelling and

Mapping research programme of the Human Sciences Research Council.

Godswill Zakhele Langa is a researcher in the Surveys, Analyses, Modelling and Mapping

research programme of the Human Sciences Research Council.

Maano Ramutsindela is a lecturer in the Department of Environmental and

Geographical Science at the University of Cape Town.

Stephen Rule is director of research with the South African Ministry of Social

Development.

Craig Schwabe is head of the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) Centre in the

Human Sciences Research Council.

Jarè Struwig is a chief researcher in the Social Analyses, Modelling and Mapping research

programme of the Human Sciences Research Council.

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xi

Preface

HSRC Public Opinion Survey

Prospects for consolidating democracy in South Africa, and attempts to address

the country’s ailing economic fortunes, depend largely on three critical factors:

the ability of government to make informed decisions and strategic interventions

based on the principles of good governance and sound policy; the willingness

and determination of the stakeholder community, including civil society

organisations and the private sector, to provide the necessary checks and

balances required to maintain and nurture a constitutionally-enshrined

democratic dispensation; and the ability of the research community to produce

research, either self-generated or commissioned, that provides penetrative and

textured accounts of the multi-faceted nature of our society.

The compilation that follows is an illustration of the latter and, firmly rooted

in the HSRC’s determination to conduct ‘social science research that makes a

difference’, as well as in the organisation’s desire to comprehensively align applied

social research to user needs, is an attempt to generate debate on matters crucial

to the public domain, inform and synergise often competing although

complementary discourses on development, and make inroads in a policy arena

that is sometimes characterised by too much fluidity and a lack of strategic

direction. As such, the account that follows – both as a public snap-shot and a

more in-depth analysis of trends and opinions – makes a significant contribution

to the critical debate around the challenges to, and prospects for, consolidating

democracy in South Africa. It also informs the debate on how to enhance the

impetus towards sustained economic growth, and the fundamentals that

underpin this.

The compilation also has important tangential implications and policy

overtones for the southern African region, and the rest of the African sub￾continent at large. Indeed, comparative insight and perspective will begin to

grow in importance as efforts to implement the New Partnership for Africa’s

Development (NEPAD) get off the ground, and it is recognised that a pivotal

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xii

basis for doing this will be through comprehensive and rigorous national public

audits on attitudes and trends on key issues.

Public opinion and attitudes often remain the yardstick against which

interventions are made. The collection which follows, in synthesising and

analysing the results and findings of some key policy areas that have been

investigated, will provide all stakeholders in South Africa with a set of factual

information and derivative analytic insights. Such a representation allows for

informed choices and decisions to be made, policy dimensions to be investigated

further, and research to be commissioned in areas where voids are conspicuous.

UDESH PILLAY

Executive Director

Surveys, Analyses, Modelling

and Mapping (SAMM)

HSRC

April 2002

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Introduction: Public opinion and the prospects for

democratic consolidation in South Africa 1999–2001

Adam Habib

Democracy cannot be taken for granted. Its consolidation is neither inevitable,

nor need the process take the form of a linear progression. Democracies are

susceptible to reversions to authoritarianism. As Robert Dahl demonstrates in

his recent work, On democracy, authoritarian regimes have replaced democratic

ones some 52 times between 1900 and 1985 (Dahl, 1998). But southern Africans

do not need to be quoted statistics to be made aware of this fact. Indeed, the

point has been graphically brought home by developments in both Zambia and

Zimbabwe. In the case of the former, a trade union leader who led resistance

against what had been the only president of post-independent Zambia, then

subverted that same democracy by first attempting to re-write the constitution

to enable him to seek a third term, and when that failed, manipulating elections

to ensure that his nominee was elected president. In Zimbabwe, a first generation

independence leader succeeded in holding onto power through graft, patronage,

electoral fraud, constitutional manipulation, and intimidation of opponents and

dissidents. In both cases, democracy and the promise of development dissipated

as a result of both structural conditions and leadership behaviour.

South Africans can thus not be complacent about their democracy. They need

to be constantly on guard against any threat of reversion. In fact, this seems to

have been the intention of the architects of our constitutional system who

established a series of checks and balances in order to contain arbitrary and

authoritarian behaviour, and empower the citizenry. To contribute to this effort,

the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) has for several years been

conducting regular national surveys on public opinion. Issues that have been

investigated include, among others, citizens’ satisfaction with service delivery,

their perceived national priorities, their political preferences, and their attitudes

on the state of the economy. Such knowledge about citizens’ perceptions is

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crucial not only to inform government officials about what the citizenry thinks

of their performance and policies, but also because it enables researchers and

scholars to make continuous assessments of citizens’ attitudes which constitute

one of the structural conditions for democratic sustainability.

The national survey on which the analysis in this volume is premised was

undertaken in July 2001. The survey instrument comprised a questionnaire

containing questions on a variety of themes. It was divided into different topics

and the duration of interviews of respondents was between 60 and 90 minutes.

A sample of 2 704 respondents was selected throughout South Africa in clusters

of eight households situated in 338 primary sampling units (PSUs)/enumerator

areas (EAs) as determined from the 1996 census. In order to ensure adequate

representation in the sample from each province and from each of the four

dominant population groups, the sample was explicitly stratified by province

and urban/rural locations. This added up to 18 strata (see Table 1). Dispropor￾tional samples were drawn from less populated provinces such as the Northern

Cape, Free State, Mpumalanga and North West.

Table 1 Number of primary sampling units/EAs per province and strata

The realised sample was only slightly less than the intended 2 704. In terms of

province and population group, the spread was sufficiently wide to facilitate

statistical generalisations about opinions prevailing within each province and

among persons of each of the four main population groups. Each case was then

weighted so that the resultant weighted dataset would approximate the

distribution of the population of South Africa in terms of population group,

province, gender and educational qualification.

This chapter summarises the results and findings of the chapters that follow

with a view to understanding how they impact on, and what they reveal about

the challenges to, and the prospects for, the consolidation of democracy.

Obviously, an exhaustive analysis of the results cannot be undertaken here.

Readers interested in such an analysis within a particular issue area should refer

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PUBLIC ATTITUDES IN CONTEMPORARY SOUTH AFRICA

EC FS GT KZN MP NC NP NW WC

Urban 14 21 56 24 12 21 14 11 29

Rural 25 19 12 32 18 19 28 19 14

Total 39 30 58 56 30 30 32 30 33

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to the relevant chapters in this volume. This chapter merely summarises and

analyses the overall findings across the various issue areas, as they pertain to the

challenge of democratic sustainability and consolidation in South Africa.

Identity in the post-1994 era

In 1970, in a path-breaking review of the post-World War II democratisation

literature, Rustow (1970:350–351) identified the emergence of a national identity

as the only precondition necessary for habituation, or what we now term the

consolidation of democracy (Rustow, 1970:350–351). This of course should be

an obvious condition to identify, especially in South Africa. After all, apartheid’s

overt attempt to categorise and then govern people along racial lines meant that

the conflict in South Africa came to be principally defined as one of race; a

conflict primarily among racial groups whose choices and political behaviour

were determined by their group identities. For democratic consolidation to be

effected in South Africa then, such group identities have to be transcended, or at

the least, eclipsed in prominence by a new national identity.

What then is the state of identity among South Africa’s citizenry seven years

after the dawn of the post-apartheid era? Mainstream political science still

maintains that the citizenry primarily conceptualise and identify themselves in

racial terms. The most recent exposition of this thesis is detailed in Hermann

Giliomee’s and Charles Simkins’ comparative study on one-party states entitled

The awkward embrace: One-party domination and democracy. This study

maintains that the establishment of a viable parliamentary opposition is

impossible because of the South African electorate’s propensity to vote along

racial lines. The citizenry, they maintain, identify themselves in racial terms, and

their electoral behaviour is so governed. Electoral outcomes for Giliomee and

Simkins (1999:346), then, are ‘likely to continue to resemble a racial census’.

The EPOP survey contained a number of questions designed to get to citizens’

attitudes in this regard, and as a result a number of chapters in this volume speak

on the issue. Almost all would question Giliomee’s and Simkins’‘racial census’

thesis, or at the very least, would tend to qualify it. The most direct challenge to

this thesis comes from Maano Ramutsindela in his fascinating chapter on

identity and voting trends, based on the November 1999 survey. This chapter

categorically demonstrates that the majority of people view themselves primarily

as South Africans. This form of national identity prevailed among 61% of the

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Introduction: Public opinion and the prospects for democratic consolidation in SA

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