Tài liệu Impact Evaluation Of Small And Medium Enterprise Programs In Latin America And The

Impact

Evaluation

of SME Programs

in Latin America and Caribbean

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The World Bank

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Washington, D.C. 20433

USA

Editors:

Gladys López Acevedo

Hong W. Tan

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Impact Evaluation of SME Programs in LAC

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First Printing: January, 2010

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Edition: Christopher Humphrey

Cover and Design: sonideas.com

photographs: back cover © Ray Witlin/World Bank Photo Library (left)

© Aravind Teki/Dreamstime.com (right)

Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys

Impact evaluation of SME programs in LAC / Gladys Lopez-Acevedo,

Hong Tan. -- The World Bank, 2010.

194 p. : il. – (Report No. 52668-LAC)

350.82098/L63

1. Small and Medium Enterprise - Monitoring and Evaluation – Mexico.

2. Small and Medium Enterprise - Monitoring and Evaluation – Chile. 3. Small and Medi￾um Enterprise - Monitoring and Evaluation – Colombia. 4. Small and Medium Enterprise

- Monitoring and Evaluation – Peru. 5. Mexico – Small and Medium Enterprise – Monitor￾ing and Evaluation. 6. Chile – Small and Medium Enterprise – Monitoring and Evaluation.

7. Colombia – Small and Medium Enterprise – Monitoring and Evaluation. 8. Peru – Small

and Medium Enterprise – Monitoring and Evaluation.

Impact

Evaluation

of SME Programs

in Latin America and Caribbean

Editors:

Gladys Lopez Acevedo

Hong W. Tan

April 2010

Poverty and Gender Unit

Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector

Latin America and the Caribbean Region

Main Abbreviations and Acronyms

Abbreviations and acronyms

BDS Business Development Services

CID Colectivo Integral de Desarrollo( Integral Development Collective)

CIMO Calidad Integral y Modernizacion (Integral Quality and Modernization Program)

CITE Centro de Innovacion Tecnologica (Technical Innovation Center)

CONICyT Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica

y Tecnologica (National Science and Technology Research Council)

CONSUCODE Consejo Superior de Contrataciones y

Adquisiciones Del Estado (Council of State Contracting and Procurement)

CORFO Corporacion de Fomento de la Produccion (Production Promotion Corporation)

DANE Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica

(National Statistics Administration Department )

DID Difference-in-difference

ENESTYC Encuesta Nacional de Empleo, Salarios, Capacitacion

y Tecnologia (National Employment Salary, Training and Technology Survey)

ENIA Encuesta Nacional Industrial Annual (Annual Industrial Survey)

FAT Fondos de Asistencia Tecnica (Technical Assistance Funds)

FDI Fondo de Desarrollo e Innovacion (Development and Innovation Fund)

FOMIPYME Fondo Colombiano de Modernizacion y Desarrollo Tecnologico de las Micro,

Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (Fund for the Modernization

and Technological Development of Micro, Small and Medium Sized Firms)

FONDEF Fondo de Fomento al Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico

(Science and Technology Development Fund)

FONDOEMPLEO Fondo Nacional de Capacitacion Laboral y de Promocion del Empleo

(National Fund for Training and Employment Promotion)

FONTEC Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Tecnologico y Productivo

GDP Gross Domestic Product

ICS Investment Climate Survey

IFI International Financial Institution

IMF International Monetary Fund

INE Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (National Statistical Institute)

INEI Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica

(National Statistics and Information Institute)

ITESM Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de

Monterrey (Monterrey Institute of Tecnology and Higher Education)

MP Ministerio de la Produccion (Production Ministry)

MIMDES Ministerio de la Mujer y Desarrollo Social (Women and Human Development Ministry)

MITINCI Ministerio de Industria, Turismo, Integracion y Negociaciones Comerciales

Internacionales (Ministry of Industry, Tourism,

Integration and International Negotiations)

MTPE Ministerio de Trabajo y Promocion de Empleo (Labor Ministry)

NSO National Statistics Office

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OLS Ordinary least squares

PDP Programa de Desarrollo de Proveedores (Supplier Development Program)

PROCHILE Programa de Promocion de Exportaciones (Export Promotion Program)

PROFO Proyectos Asociativos de Fomento (Association Development Projects)

PROMPYME Comision de Promocion de la Pequeña y Micro Empresa

(Micro and Small Enterprise Promotion Commission)

PSM Propensity score matching

PTI Programas Territoriales Integrados (Integrated Territorial Programs)

SENCE Servicio Nacional de Capacitacion y Empleo

(National Training and Employment Service)

SERCOTEC Servicio de Cooperacion Tecnica (Technical Cooperation Service)

SME Small and Medium Enterprise

STPS Secretaria de Trabajo y Provision Social (Ministry of Labor)

SUNAT Superintendencia Nacional de Administracion Tributaria

(National Tax Administration Authority)

TFP Total factor productivity

VAT Value-added tax

Vice President: Pamela Cox

PREM Director: Marcelo Giugale

Sector Manager: Louise J. Cord

Task Manager: Gladys Lopez-Acevedo

Table of contents

Main Abbreviations and Acronyms .............................................................................................................. iv

Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................................... xi

chapter 1

Motivation, Methodology and Main Findings ............................................................................................. 1

Motivation for the Study................................................................................................................................................... 1

The Impact Evaluation Challenge..................................................................................................................................... 2

Review of Recent Literature.............................................................................................................................................. 5

The Four Country Studies ................................................................................................................................................. 6

The Non-Experimental Data ............................................................................................................................................. 6

Analytical Approach........................................................................................................................................................... 7

Overview of Cross-Country Results ................................................................................................................................. 8

Concluding Remarks ........................................................................................................................................................10

chapter 2

A Review of Recent SME Program Impact Evaluation Studies................................................................ 13

Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Studies Selected for Review ............................................................................................................................................14

Enterprise Support Programs Studied............................................................................................................................14

Non-Experimental Data Used..........................................................................................................................................14

Analytic Approaches and Main Findings ...................................................................................................................... 18

Selected References ..................................................................................................................................... 19

Annex

Summary of individual studies ................................................................................................................... 21

chapter 3

Evaluating SME Support Programs in Chile .............................................................................................. 33

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 33

2. Overview of SME Programs in Chile.......................................................................................................................... 34

3. The Chile Data ............................................................................................................................................................. 37

4. Empirical Approach and Initial Findings.................................................................................................................... 43

5. Estimating Program Impacts Using the ICS-ENIA Panel.......................................................................................... 48

6. Summary and Concluding Remarks .......................................................................................................................... 55

chapter 4

Evaluating SME Support Programs in Colombia....................................................................................... 57

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 57

2. Support Policies for SMEs in Colombia..................................................................................................................... 58

3. Past Impact Evaluations of FOMIPYME ..................................................................................................................... 60

4. Data Used in the Evaluation ....................................................................................................................................... 61

5. Methodology................................................................................................................................................................ 65

6. Estimation and Results................................................................................................................................................ 67

7. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................................76

Annex 4.1 Telephone Survey Questionnaire............................................................................................... 77

Annex 4.2 Telephone Survey Results .......................................................................................................... 78

chapter 5

Evaluating SME Support Programs in Mexico........................................................................................... 81

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 81

2. SME Programs ............................................................................................................................................................. 82

3. Past Evaluations........................................................................................................................................................... 89

4. Data............................................................................................................................................................................... 92

5. Model............................................................................................................................................................................ 96

6. Results .......................................................................................................................................................................... 99

7. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................... 100

ANNEX 5.1 Estimates of Program Impacts in Mexico ............................................................................ 102

chapter 6

Evaluating SME Support Programs in Peru ............................................................................................. 109

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................109

2. Size of SME Sector and Program Coverage ............................................................................................................. 110

3. Description of SME programs ................................................................................................................................... 111

4. Data description..........................................................................................................................................................114

5. Methodology...............................................................................................................................................................115

6. Results .........................................................................................................................................................................116

7. Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................... 119

8. Conclusions................................................................................................................................................................ 120

Annex 6.1 Innovation centers (cites) ...................................................................................................... 122

Annex 6.2 Designing a supplementary survey ........................................................................................ 123

References ................................................................................................................................................... 126

Table and Figures

Figures

Figure 1.1 Impact on Firm Performance With and Without SME Program.................................................................... 3

Figure 1.2 Selectivity Bias from Program Participation .................................................................................................. 4

Figure 3.1Time Paths of Y for Treatment and Control Groups ..................................................................................... 43

Figure 3.2 Distribution of Propensity Scores and Region of Common Support......................................................... 46

Figure 3.3Time-Paths of Program Impacts on Selected Final Outcomes ................................................................... 53

Figure 4.1 Distribution of FOMIPYME Projects by Activity and Sector ....................................................................... 59

Figure 4.2 Distribution of Propensity Score and Region of Common Support .......................................................... 69

Figure 4.3 Estimated Outcomes for Treatment and Control Groups ........................................................................... 70

Figure 5.1 Distribution of Propensity Scores................................................................................................................. 98

Figure 6.1 Evolution of CITE-Calzado Revenue by Service Type (2001-2006) ............................................................113

Figure 6.2 Distribution of Propensity Scores and Region of Common Support........................................................117

Figure 6.3 Evolution of Mean Profits Per Worker for PROMPYME

and BONOPYME, 2001-2006 (thousands of soles)..................................................................................... 119

Figure A6.2.1 Distribution of Propensity Scores and Region of Common Support ................................................ 124

TaBLES

Table 1.1 Overview of Data and SME Programs in Four Latin American Countries..................................................... 7

Table 1.2 Impacts of Program Participation – Fixed Effects Results............................................................................... 9

Table 2.1 Recent Impact Evaluation Studies of Enterprise Support Programs........................................................... 15

Table 2.2 Recent Impact Evaluation Studies—Data Sources and Period Covered ..................................................... 16

Table 2.3 Recent Impact Evaluation Studies—Approach and Findings....................................................................... 17

Table 3.1 SME Program Participation and Participation Status ................................................................................... 38

Table 3.2 Distribution of Treatment and Control Groups in the Panel ......................................................................... 39

Table 3.3 Distribution of Treatment and Control Groups by Firm Size and Sector..................................................... 40

Table 3.4 Summary Statistics on Intermediate and Final Outcomes For the Treatment and Control Groups ......... 42

Table 3.5 Conditional Likelihood of Any Program Participation Estimates from Cox Proportional Hazards Model 46

Table 3.6 Intermediate and Final Outcomes in 2004 Nearest Neighbor Estimator.................................................... 47

Table 3.7 Program Impacts of Any Program and by Program Type Levels and

Fixed Effects Model with Propensity Score Matching .................................................................................. 50

Table 3.8 Attributes of Treatment Cohorts by Year of Program Entry........................................................................... 51

Table 3.9Time Effects of Any Program Participation Fixed Effects Model with Propensity Score Matching........... 52

Table 3.10 Bounding Impacts of Program Participation Trimming

Bottom 5% and 10% of Treatment Group Outcomes .................................................................................. 54

Table 4.1 Project and Resources Executed by FOMIPYME (2008 Prices).................................................................... 59

Table 4.2 Impacts of FOMIPYME .................................................................................................................................... 61

Table 4.3 Distribution of Firms in the Final Sample...................................................................................................... 61

Table 4.4 Distribution of Firms in the Final Sample...................................................................................................... 63

Table 4.5 Topics Covered During the Support Activities ............................................................................................... 63

Table 4.6 How the Firms Got Involved in the Activities ................................................................................................ 63

Table 4.7 Annual Average Sales by Sector (thousands 2008 US$).............................................................................. 64

Table 4.8 Average Assets by Sector (thousands 2008 US$)......................................................................................... 64

Table 4.9 Average Number of Employees by Sector .................................................................................................... 64

Table 4.10 Average Years Doing Business by Sector..................................................................................................... 65

Table 4.11 Main Independent Variables Used in the Analysis ...................................................................................... 65

Table 4.12 Propensity Score Matching Results.............................................................................................................. 68

Table 4.13 Common Support.......................................................................................................................................... 69

Table 4.14 Estimated Impact Via PSM (2002)................................................................................................................. 69

Table 4.15 Estimated Impact Using PSM in Differences (2002) .................................................................................. 69

Table 4.16 Panel Regression Coefficients ...................................................................................................................... 71

Table 4.17 Upper and Lower Bound Impacts .............................................................................................................. 72

Table 4.18 Impacts on Total Factor Productivity ............................................................................................................ 73

Table 4.19 Firms Falling in the Common Support (Two Different Treatments) ............................................................74

Table 4.20 Impacts by Type of Program ......................................................................................................................... 75

Telephone Survey Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 78

Table 5.1 SME Support Funds and Programs in Mexico: Summary of Results, 2001-2006 ...................................... 82

Table 5.2 Nafinsa: Main Results 2001-2006.................................................................................................................... 83

Table 5.3 SME funds and Programs from the Ministry of Economy: Main Results 1998-2006 ................................ 83

Table 5.4 Funds of the Ministry of Economy: Main Results 2001-2006 ....................................................................... 84

Table 5.5 PROMODE: Main Results 2001-2006 .............................................................................................................. 84

Table 5.6 COMPITE: Main Results 2001-2006 ................................................................................................................ 85

Table 5.7 Bancomext: Main Results 2001-2006 ............................................................................................................. 85

Table 5.8 Fiscal Incentives: Main Results 2001-2006..................................................................................................... 86

Table 5.9 Science and Technology Sectoral Fund: Main Results 2002-2006 ............................................................... 86

Table 5.10 AVANCE: Main Results 2004-2006................................................................................................................ 87

Table 5.11 CIMO-PAC: Main Results 2001-2006 ............................................................................................................. 87

Table 5.12 Programs and Support Mechanisms............................................................................................................ 88

Table 5.13 Evaluation Studies in Mexico ....................................................................................................................... 89

Table 5.14 Number of Panel Firms by Size and ENESTYC Years.................................................................................. 92

Table 5.15 SME Program Participation........................................................................................................................... 93

Table 5.16 Distribution of Treatment and Control Groups ............................................................................................ 94

Table 5.17 Distribution of Treatment and Control Groups by Firm Size and Sector................................................... 95

Table 5.18 Differences in Means Between the Treatment and the Control Group, Any Program.............................. 95

Table 5.19 Estimates from Cox Proportional Hazards Model. Results from Any Program Participation Model ...... 97

Table 6.1 Estimates of the Number of Micro and Small Firms (2006)........................................................................ 110

Table 6.2 Formal Firms that Accessed SME Support Programs ................................................................................. 110

Table 6.3 Participation, Vouchers Used and Expenditures (2003-2006)...................................................................... 111

Table 6.4 Beneficiary Firms in the EEA According to Support Program ....................................................................114

Table 6.5 Distribution of Treated and Untreated Firms ................................................................................................116

Table 6.6 Logit Estimates for Program Participation....................................................................................................117

Table 6.7 Distribution of Treated and Untreated Sample by Program Type................................................................118

Table 6.8 Estimates of Fixed-Effects and Between-Effects Models.............................................................................118

Table 6.9 Fixed-effects Estimates by Trimming the Bottom 5% of the Distribution................................................... 119

Table 6.10 Fixed-effects Estimates by Trimming the Top 5% of the Distribution....................................................... 120

Table A5.1 Program Impacts of Any Program and by Program

Agency. Levels and Fixed Effects Model with Propensity Score Matching..............................................102

Table A5.2 Program Impacts by Program in ENESTYC 2005.

Levels and Fixed Effects Model with Propensity Score Matching............................................................103

Table A5.3Time Effects of Any Program Participation

(time since started the program). Fixed Effects Model with Propensity Score Matching.......................104

Table A5.4 Bounding Impacts of Program Participation. Trimming

Bottom 5% of Treatment Group Outcomes. Fixed effects model with PSM ............................................105

Table A5.5 Bounding Impacts of Program Participation.

Trimming Bottom 5% of Treatment Group Outcomes. Fixed effects model with PSM ..........................105

Table A5.6 Program Impacts of CIMO in ENESTYC 2001. Models with Propensity Score Matching .......................106

Table A6.2.1 Results from Supplementary Survey by Support Program.................................................................. 123

Table A6.2.2 Number of CITE-Calzado Users According to Registration Year*......................................................... 123

Table A6.2.3 Logit Model Dependent Variable: Ever treated by BONOPYME.......................................................... 124

Table A6.2.4 Fixed-effects Model.................................................................................................................................. 125

Acknowledgements

This report was co-funded by research grant RF-P105213-RESE-BB from the World Bank‘s

Research Committee for a regional study —Evaluating Small and Medium Enterprise

Support Programs in Latin America— and support from the Poverty Reduction and

Economic Management Division of the Latin America and Caribbean Region of the World

Bank. The objective of the study was to rigorously evaluate small and medium enterprise

(SME) programs in four Latin American countries—Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru—to gain

insights into whether SME programs work, which programs perform better than others, and why.

The research team was led by Gladys Lopez-Acevedo (Task Team Leader and Senior Economist,

LCSPP) and Hong Tan (advisor and consultant, LCSPP). The introduction (Chapter 1) and Lit￾erature Review (Chapter 2) were written by Hong Tan and Gladys Lopez-Acevedo. The country

studies were written by different authors: Hong Tan on Chile (Chapter 3); Juan Felipe Duque and

Mariana Muñoz (consultants from Econometria) on Colombia (Chapter 4); Gladys Lopez-Acevedo

and Monica Tinajero (consultant) on Mexico (Chapter 5); and Miguel Jaramillo and Juan Jose Diaz

(consultants from GRADE) on Peru (Chapter 6). The team was assisted by consultant Yevgeniya

Savchenko and ITESM consultants Jorge Mario Soto, Hugo Fuentes and Victor Aramburu, and by

our World Bank colleagues Anne Pillay, Rosa Maria Hernandez-Fernandez and Lucy Bravo. Special

thanks go to David McKenzie (Senior Economist, DECRG) who guided the team on methodological

and econometric issues throughout the study, and to Christopher Humphrey (consultant) whose

editing made the report more readable.

The study would not have been possible without the assistance of and inputs from local partner

institutions and governments. We gratefully acknowledge INEGI, the national statistical office of

Mexico, particularly Abigail Duran (Director of Industrial Surveys, General Direction of Economic

Statistics) and Adriana Ramirez (Subdirector, Operations and Training, General Direction of Eco￾nomic Statistics); DANE, the national statistical office of Colombia, in particular Eduardo Freire,

(Technical Director of Statistics Methodology and Production) and the National Planning Depart￾ment, Government of Colombia; INEI, the national statistical office of Chile, in particular Mario

Rodriguez, and Carlos Alvarez (UnderMinistry of Economy) and Alberto Ergas (Advisor); and from

Peru, Renan Quispe (Head of INEI) and Agnes Franco (Executive Director of the National Competi￾tiveness Council). We are grateful to colleagues that provided comments and inputs to the various

drafts of the report in particular, Jose Guilherme Reis (PRMTR), Michael Goldberg (LCSPF), and

Cristian Quijada Torres (LCSPF). The research also benefited from presentations of draft country

studies at two workshops: an October 2009 seminar at the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, CA

and a December workshop in the World Bank as part of its DIME Impact Evaluation Workshop

series. We gratefully acknowledge the insightful comments and suggestions of participants at these

workshops.

This report should be of interest to country governments, policymakers with responsibilities for

SMEs, local researchers and the private sector in the region, as well as World Bank staff and bilateral

donors. However, the findings and conclusions expressed in this report are entirely those of the

authors, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the World Bank, its Board of Directors or

the countries it represents.

chapter 1

Impact Evaluation of SME Programs in LAC

Jim Pickerell/world bank photo library

1

chapter

This report is the product of a research project rigorously evaluating the net impacts of

participation in small and medium enterprise (SME) programs in four Latin American

countries-Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The objective of the research was to

determine which SME programs improve firm performance, and to gain insights into

why some programs may be more effective than others.

To this end, the research team worked closely with

national statistics offices in each of the four coun￾tries to develop firm-level panel data on program

beneficiaries and a comparison group of non￾program participants with similar firm attributes.

The research team adopted a common analytic

approach to ensure comparability of findings

across countries. This drew upon methodologies

used in recent impact evaluation studies of SME

programs in high income and developing countries

(reviewed in Chapter 2) to address issues of selec￾tion bias from program participation. The analysis

also extended evaluation methodologies in several

new directions: to accommodate the presence of

multiple treatment cohorts and participation in

multiple SME programs, to estimate the effects over

time of impacts from program participation, and to

test the sensitivity of impact estimates to firm exit.

The four country studies are presented in Chapters

3 through 6.1

1

The application of these evaluation techniques

revealed generally positive and significant impacts

for several (but not all) SME programs in the coun￾tries reviewed. All four country studies found sta￾tistically significant impacts of participation in any

SME program on sales, positive impacts on other

1 The project was co-funded by the Research Committee and the

Poverty Reduction and Economic Management division of the

Latin America and Caribbean Region of the World Bank.

measures of firm performance varying by country,

and differences in impacts across programs. The

analyses highlighted the importance of accounting

for the biases that arise from non-random self-se￾lection of firms into programs, and for using longer

panel data to measure impacts on firm performance

that may only be realized over time with a lag.

These findings imply that the pessimism of earlier

SME program evaluations may have been largely

due to the methodologies used. The generally

positive results found in these country studies for

a number of SME programs by using more refined

techniques suggests that the pessimistic view might

be reconsidered, and that governments and inter￾national development organizations should utilize

some of the evaluation techniques described in

this report to gain a better understanding of which

types of programs work better, and why. This

information, in turn, can be applied to improving

existing programs, winding down those shown to

be ineffective, and scaling up successful experienc￾es to more efficiently improve SME performance,

economic activity and employment.

Motivation for the Study

In most countries, SMEs make up the vast major￾ity of enterprises, and account for a substantial

share of gross domestic product (GDP) and the

Motivation, Methodology

and Main Findings