Sustainability impact assessment of land use changes

. Helmin g

M . Perez-Sob a

P.Tabbus h

(Eds. )

Impac t Assessmen t

o f Lan d Us e Change s

Springe r

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Katharin a Helmin g

Mart a Perez-Sob a

Pau l Tabbus h

Sustainabilit y Impac t Assessmen t o f Lan d Us e

Change s

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Katharin a Helmin g

Mart a Perez-Sob a

Pau l Tabbus h

(Editors )

Sustainabilit y Impac t

Assessmen t o f Lan d Us e

Change s

Wit h 7 2 Figures, 55 i n colou r

Springe r

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Dr. Katharina Helming

Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)

Eberswalder Str. 84, D-15374 Muncheberg,

Germany

E-Mail:

[email protected]

Dr. Marta Perez-Soba

ALTERRA

Wageningen UR, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen,

The Netherlands

E-Mail:

[email protected]

Mr. Paul Tabbush

Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham Surrey, UK, GU10 4LH

United Kingdom

E-Mail:

[email protected]

Cover source: Spatial Regional Reference Framework

© Renetzeder, Ch.; Eupen, M. van; Mucher C.A.; Wrbka, T. 2007

Library of Congress Control Number: 2008923272

ISBN 978-3-540-78647-4 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

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Forewor d

There are many reasons why strategic intelligence is required to support

policy decisions. These primarily stem from the nature of today's knowl￾edge society with two contrasting trends. On the one hand, there is a trend

of increasing human intelligence in the economic, social and political sys￾tems. On the other hand, there is a trend towards dissolving certainties

about the problems and solutions of today's society. Clearly, more infor￾mation does not necessary imply more certainties on how to act. What is

more, the same facts are often interpreted in markedly different ways: the

same policy relevant information can - and often does results in conflict￾ing framing of a problem by different stakeholders. This is mainly due to

competing assumptions, rather then because of inconsistent facts. There￾fore, it is not surprising that policy-makers are calling for strategic intelli￾gence to support their understanding of today's challenges, including the

relevant aspects o f science and technology, their impact and their possible

future developments.

Over the last 15 years, Europe has rapidly adopted the practice of devel￾oping and using Impact Assessment (IA) tools to support decision-making.

Formal procedures and guidance for IA are well established within the

European Commission and in most EU Member States. The adoption of IA

procedures alone, however, does not guarantee that every policy domain is

actually using the full potential of these assessment tools in the preparation

of policies and legislation. To substantiate the complex process of IA, the

European Commission has launched a series of comprehensive research

projects to develop science based sustainability impact assessment tools.

The integrated project SENSOR is one of them and I am looking forward

to reading and using this publication on the IA concepts and tools devel￾oped within the SENSOR project.

Peter De Smedt

Scientific Officer of the SENSOR project.

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Content s

Preface

Introduction

K Helming, P Tabbush, M Perez-Soba

List of Contributors

Part I . Sustainability Impact Assessment: concepts and approaches

1. Ex-ante Impact Assessments (IA) in the European

Commission - an overview

K Tscherning, H Konig, B Schofier, K Helming, S Sieber

2. Impact Assessment in the European Commission in relation

to multifunctional land use

P Tabbush, P Frederiksen, D Edwards

3. An institutional analysis of land use modelling in the Euro￾pean Commission

A Thiel, B Konig

4. Ex ante impact assessment of land use change in European

regions - the SENSOR approach

K Helming, H Bach, O Dilly, RF Hiittl, B Konig,

T Kuhlman, M Perez-Soba, S Sieber, P Smeets, P Tabbush,

K Tscherning, D Wascher, H Wiggering

5. Transfer into decision support: the Sustainability Impact

Assessment Tool (SIAT)

S Sieber, K Miiller, P Venveij, H Haraldsson, K Fricke,

C Pacini, K Tscherning, K Helming, T Jansson

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Part II . Scenario modelling of land use changes

6. Scenarios: driving forces and policies

T Kuhlman

7. Cross sector land use modelling framework

TJansson, MBakker, B Boitier, A Fougeyrollas,

J Helming, H van Meijl, PJ Verkerk

8. Tourism geography in Europe

T Sick Nielsen, BC Kaae

9. Landscape level simulation of land use change

P Verburg, M Bakker, KP Overmars, I Star itsky

Part III. Spatial representation and data issues for European regions

10. Regional socio-economic profiles for assessment of Euro￾pean land use related policies: the SENSOR experience

V Briquel

11. A spatial regional reference framework for sustainability as￾sessment

Ch Renetzeder, M van Eupen, S Miicher, T Wrbka

12. Requirement for data management and maintenance to sup￾port regional land use research

HS Hansen, P Viuf W Loibl, J Peters-Anders, SZudin

J Vogt

Part IV. European level indicator framework

13. An indicators framework for analysing sustainability impacts

of land use change

P Frederiksen, P Kristensen

14. Indicators for assessing the environmental impacts of land

use change across Europe

S Petit, FP Vint her, PJ Verkerk, LG Firbank, N Hal berg,

TDalgaard, CKjeldsen, MLindner, SZudin

15. Reflections on social and economic indicators for land use

change

JH Farrington, T Kuhlman, DS Rothman, Z Imhchowa, L

Reid, E Konkoly Gyuro

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16. Weighting and aggregation of indicators for sustainability

impact assessment in the SENSOR context

ML Paracchini, C Pacini, S Calvo, J Vogt 349

Part V. Regional and local evaluation

17. Land use functions - a multifunctionality approach to as￾sess the impact of land use change on land use sustain￾ability

M Perez-Soba, S Petit, L Jones, N Bertrand, V Briquel, L

Omodei-Zorini, C Contini, K Helming, J Farrington, M

Tinacci Mossello, D Wascher, F Kienast, R de Groot 375

18. Limits and targets for a regional sustainability assess￾ment: an interdisciplinary exploration of the threshold

concept

JV Bertrand, L Jones, B Hosier, L Omodei-Zorini, S Petit,

C Contini 405

19. Sustainability impact assessments: limits, thresholds and

the sustainability choice space

MPotschin, R Haines-Young 425

20. Key sustainability issues in European sensitive regions -

a participatory approach

J Morris, M Camilleri, S Moncada 451

21. Key sustainability issues and the spatial classification of

sensitive regions in Europe

O Dilly, M Camilleri, C Dorrie, S Formosa, R Galea,

D Hallenbarter, H Hasenauer, Z Imrichovd, R Korzen￾iowska-Pucutek, M Kowalik, P Koza, N Krduchi, A Kull,

A Lopatka, U Mander, S Moncada, T Oja, R Pudelko,

F Putzhuber, C Rogafi, BU Schneider, G Siebielec,

T Stuczyhski, RF Huttl 471

Acknowledgements 495

Index 497

Abbreviations 505

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Introductio n

Land use is a key human activity, which, through the exploitation of natu￾ral resources, fosters socio-economic development and alters structures

and processes in the environment. At the European level, the Sustainable

Development Strategy stresses the need for real integration of economic,

environmental and social issues across policy areas. In particular, land use

policy aims to promote sustainability pathways of natural resources use

and rural development through the decoupling of economic growth from

environmental degradation while supporting social cohesion. Manifested

with the idea o f multifunctional land use, the environment is understood to

provide a portfolio of functionalities, which, through proper land use man￾agement, can be exploited as environmental goods and services for the

benefit of society. A sustainable way of managing land use and exploiting

environmental functionalities requires tools that can provide anticipations

of possible impacts of land use decisions at all levels of governance.

Impact assessment is an emerging scientific field that includes a variety

of tools and methods and that serves various activity and decision making

levels. It involves a range o f scientific disciplines and methodological ap￾proaches. At the European Commission level, sustainability impact as￾sessment is designed to integrate all single sector impact assessment types

with the aim of better regulation and fostering sustainable development ob￾jectives. To substantiate the complex process of Impact Assessment and

develop science based quantitative and qualitative tools, the European

Commission launched a series of integrated research projects in its sixth

Framework Programme for Research. The Integrated Project SENSOR is

one of these. It involves 37 partner organisations in Europe, China and

Latin America and develops ex-ante Sustainability Impact Assessment

Tools (SIAT) to support decision making on policies related to multifunc￾tional land use in European regions and abroad. SENSOR directly re￾sponds to the European sustainability objectives as applied to land use and

rural development.

The project is based on three key assessment streams: (1) European￾wide, indicator-based driving force and impact analysis of land use policy

scenarios; (2) region specific problem, risk and threshold assessment mak￾ing use of spatial reference systems, land use functions and participatory

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2 Katharina Helming, Paul Tabbush, Marta Perez-Soba

processes; and (3) case study based, exemplary sensitive area studies in

mountains, islands, coastal zones, post-industrialised areas using detailed

information on specific sustainability issues, and engaging with stake￾holders at local level. Data management systems and institutional analysis

complement these assessments.

The impact assessment tools consider policy cases that affect land use in

relation to six economic sectors: agriculture; forestry; tourism; nature con￾servation; transport and energy infrastructure. The list of regional sustain￾ability issues addressed includes spatially explicit environmental functions

(abiotic and biotic resources including soil, water, air, biodiversity), socie￾tal functions (employment and labour markets, health and recreation, mi￾gration, cultural heritage and aesthetic issues) and economic functions

(competitiveness, innovation and research).

This book describes results achieved halfway through the SENSOR pro￾ject. Its focus is on the conceptual design of ex-ante impact assessment

tools and on methodological approaches of its components. It is designed

as a snap shot of results achieved during the first half of the project and not

as a comprehensive representation of all its parts. The design phase for the

development of the impact assessment tool was challenging. A logical

thread had to be woven that linked global economic trends and policy de￾cisions with land use changes and consecutive impacts on social, economic

and environmental characteristics at regional level for Europe. Methods for

valuing these impacts and integrating them into the wider sustainability

context had to be developed. This was achieved through an integration of

top-down quantitative modelling and indicator analysis with bottom-up

participatory research. The intention of this book is to provide an overview

on the various analytical components and their role in the development of

sustainability impact assessment tools for multifunctional land use.

The book consists of 21 peer reviewed chapters organised in five suc￾cessive parts. They include concepts and approaches to impact assessment,

scenarios and modelling, spatial analysis and data issues, indicator analy￾sis, regional and local assessments. Each book chapter describes a specific

contribution to the objectives of developing sustainability impact assess￾ment tools. However, each chapter is organised such that it discloses its

own scientific value and can be understood independently of the other

chapters.

The first part is entitled Sustainability' Impact Assessment: concept and

approaches. It includes five chapters on the impact assessment setting at

European Commission level and on how the SENSOR approach responds

to this strategy by developing impact assessment tools. The first chapter

provides a classification of ex-ante impact assessment procedures at the

European Commission level written by Tscherning et al. Similarities and

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Introduction 3

differences in scope, scale and approaches of Sustainability Impact As￾sessment (SIA), Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environ￾mental Impact Assessment (EIA) are described. Tabbush et al. outline the

potential application o f IA in relation to the policy making process for land

use. They also discuss the complementary roles of quantitative tools with

participatory approaches in the impact assessment procedure. Thiel and

Konig provide an institutional analysis of the use of modelling tools for

impact assessment. They describe the conditions, actors and dynamics in

the context of the European Commission's Impact Assessment procedures.

In this arena, the application of modelling tools is only recently evolving.

Tools are only accepted i f they are plausible, transparent and built upon of￾ficial European data. Based on these preconditions the SENSOR approach

to ex-ante impact assessment of multifunctional land use had to be con￾structed. This is outlined in the last two chapters of this first part. Helming

et al. provide and overview of the analytical design in SENSOR, in which

economic trend and policy scenarios are translated into land use changes at

regional scale for Europe. Based on qualitative and quantitative indicator

analysis, impacts of simulated land use changes on social, environmental

and economic sustainability issues are assessed. The chapter also provides

the context of sustainable development and land use multifunctionality, in

which the project is placed. Sieber et al., describe the development process

and performance o f the Sustainability Impact Assessment Toolkit (SIAT),

which translates the analytical approach of SENSOR into a meta￾modelling system for scenario analysis of land use changes.

The second part of the book is entitled Scenario modelling of land use

changes. It consists of four papers describing the scenario construction and

modelling chain applied in SENSOR. Kuhlman outlines the scenario de￾sign on which the prospective studies are built. It consists of global eco￾nomic trend scenarios and a series of land use related policy cases for a

virtual target year of 2025. The approach is to analyse future policy op￾tions in the field of land use against a reference based on no policy inter￾vention, in this case reflected by a series of trend scenarios. Jansson et al.

describe the modelling framework that was utilised to analyse the eco￾nomic and policy scenarios in their impact on land use changes. The

framework consists of a series of macro-economic, sectoral and land use

models that were adapted to each other and to the specific requirements in

SENSOR. A linkage of these models allows for a trans-sectoral analysis of

the effects of economic changes and/or complex policy scenarios on land

use. While in some cases (agriculture, forestry) the framework could build

upon well established models, new models or sub-models had to be con￾structed for other sectors, e.g. tourism and transport. Sick Nielsen and

Kaae present a newly developed model on tourism geography for Europe,

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4 Katharina Helming, Paul Tabbush, Marta Perez-Soba

which provides a geographic disaggregation of tourism loads to regional

levels and allows for the analysis of interrelations between tourism attrac￾tiveness and regional characteristics. Results of macro-economic and sec￾toral modelling are integrated in a land use model to display the effects o f

economic trends and political decision making on land use. Verburg et al.

describe this approach of modelling regional scale land use conversions for

Europe.

Spatial representation and data issues for European regions is the title

of the third part of the book. It consists of three chapters of which the first

two deal with the development of regional typologies for land use assess￾ment. Briquel describes the development of European Regional Economic

Profiles to reveal regional differences in development trends and sensitivi￾ties to policy interventions. The profiles are based on criteria that are of

significance in all European regions on the one side, but are sensitive to

regional characteristics on the other side. The Regional Economic Profiles

served as the socio-economic input into the development of a Spatial Re￾gional Reference Framework (SRRF) for SENSOR, which is described by

Renetzeder et al. They combined socio-economic and biophysical charac￾teristics to perform a statistical cluster analysis of the area of Europe. The

resulting SRRF consists of 27 cluster regions and provides a flexible tool

for impact assessment at regional level. This part concludes with a paper

by Hansen et al. describing the GIS based data management system devel￾oped for SENSOR. This data management system is a complementary tool

to the SIAT.

Four chapters constitute the fourth part of the book entitled European

level indicator assessments. Frederiksen and Kristensen describe an indica￾tor framework for assessing sustainability impacts of land use changes at

regional scale for Europe. Building upon the analysis of the role of indica￾tors in policy relevant studies they establish criteria for indicator selection.

Based on this indicator framework Petit et al. address the selection and im￾plementation of environmental indicators for land use changes. Taking two

environmental indicators as an example they describe methodological

challenges related to the multi-scale and non linear relationships between

land use changes and environmental impacts. Compared to environmental

analyses, social and economic impacts of land use changes are less well

studied and understood. Farrington et al. describe methods for qualitative

and quantitative indicator determination and emphasise the difficulties of

isolating the direct relationship between land use changes and social and

economic parameters from other influencing dynamics. The logical step

from indicator analysis towards an integrated assessment of sustainability

impacts of land use changes requires an aggregation and comparative

weighting of the indicators. A critical review of existing methods for the

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