Poverty Impact Analysis: Approaches and Methods - Chapter 4 ppt

CHAPTER 4

Poverty Predictor Modeling in the

People’s Republic of China: A Validation

Survey

Pingping Wang

Introduction

Based on poverty predictors identifi ed in Sangui, Pingping, and Heng (2005)

and listed in Appendix 3.1, a short questionnaire was developed and used in

a pilot survey to determine whether or not the poor in a particular location

could be identifi ed without conducting an income and expenditure survey. If

the tool could be used to identify the poor, it would be useful for evaluating

the impact of a poverty reduction project on a target area. To be able to

validate the results of the survey, the questionnaire included questions on

the respondents’ income and expenditures. A comparison was also carried

out on the accuracy of the assessment of households’ poverty status based on

results of different assessors.

Data and Methods

Sample Size and Data Gathering

The pilot survey1 was conducted in fi ve counties in the province of Yunnan

in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The coverage area was along the

Asian Development Bank–fi nanced Kunming-Dali expressway. A total of

1,000 households spread over 50 villages were interviewed. In each county,

there were 10 villages and 200 households selected. In each village, 20

households were selected, of which 10 households were from the sample

coverage of the China Rural Poverty Monitoring Survey (CRPMS), while the

rest were newly selected samples. A total of 45 villages with 450 households

were taken from the CRPMS while 5 villages and 550 households were non￾CRPMS.

Field supervisors had made several trips to check and ensure that the

enumerators followed the guidelines of the survey manual, directly assess the

1 The questionnaire used in the pilot survey can be downloaded at http://www.adb.

org/Statistics/reta_6073.asp.