Ngăn chặn suy giảm kinh tế: Từ lý thuyết đến thực tiễn Việt Nam

T A I CHIN H VT MO

Ngan chan suy gidm kinh t e

Tir ly thuyet den thi/c ti§n Viet Nam

PCS., IS. TRAN CHI" THIEN - TS. NGUYEN TH| GAM

Truang Dai hoc Kinh te va OTKD, Dai hoc Thai Nguyen

The gioi dang o trong con suy thoai kinh tetrdm trong nhat ke tu sau Chien

tranh The gioi Idn thu 2. Cdc nuoe dang dp dung nhieu gidi phdp khdc nhau de

chong suy thodi kinh te. O Viet Nam chua co suy thoai kinh te, nhung ddu

hieu suy gidm kinh tethi da ro. Bdi viet ndy tap trung phan tich nguyen nhdn

cua suy gidm kinh ted Viet Nam, dong thai de xuat mot so gidi phdp cdn dp

dung de ngdn chan dd suy gidm kinh ted nuoe ta

Cdc quan diem kinh te

hoc ve chong khung

hodng kinh te

Suy thoai la pha ciia chu ky

kinh te trong do GDP thuc te

giam di. O My va Nhat Ban,

nguoi ta quy dinh rang, khi tdc

dp tang trudng GDP thuc te

mang gia tri am sudt hai quy

lien tiep thi gpi la suy thoai. Suy

thoai kinh te keo dai va tram

trpng dupe gpi la khiing hoang

kinh te (KHKT).

• Truoc Mae, Jean Charles

Leonard Simonde (Phap, 1773-

1842), Thomas Malthus (Anh,

1766-1834) da khang dinh

KHKT la khiing hoang thiia

hang hoa so voi sue mua eo hep

ciia thi truong.

• Karl Marx (Cac Mae, Diie,

1818-1883) Cling thdng nhat ve

nguyen nhan tren ciia KHKT.

Ong la nguoi dau Hen phat hien

ra tinh chu ky ciia KHKT gdm 4

giai doan: khiing hoang, tieu

dieu, phuc hdi, hung thinh va

khing dinh KHKT la ngudi ban

ddng hanh ciia nen kinh te tu

ban ehii nghia. Giai phap, theo

ong, la cac doanh nghiep phai

tu minh thoat ra khdi khiing

hocing bang each giam tien

cong, tang eudng dp lao ddng

wi nhat la ddi mdi tu ban cd

dinh (may mdc, thiet bi...) tiidd

tang nang suat lao dpng, giam

chi phi san xuat, ha gia thanh,

tang Ipi nhuan, tao ra su phuc

hdi eiia nen kinh te (5)

• John Maynard Keynes

(Anh, 1883-1948) da dua ra Ly

thuyet ve khiing hoang kinh te

va bien phap khac phuc trong

tae pham "Ly thuyet tdng quat

ve viee lam, lai suat va tign te"

nam 1936. Ong gpi y 4 nhom

chinh saeh chdng KHKT nhu

sau: (i) Dam bao dau tu nha

nuoc va kich thich dau tu tu

nhan; (ii) Sii dung he thdng tai

chinh-tin dung va luu thong

Hen te nhu tang cung tien, giam

lai suat, giam thue, md rdng dau

tu vol tu each la cong cu vi mo

de di&u tiet kinh te; (iii) Tao viee

lam de ngudi dan cd them thu

nhap va do dd tang dupe siie

mua cua thi truong; (iv) Kich

thich tieu diing de tang kha

nang tieu thu ciia thi truong.

• Truong phai trpng tien,

dai dien tieu bieu la Milton

Friedman (My, 1912-2006) (giai

Nobel ve Kinh te nam 1976), coi

miie cung ve hang hoa la tuong

ddi dn dinh nen miie cau ve tien

CO tinh chat tuong ddi dn dinh.

Trong khi dd, miic cung ve tien

khong CO tinh dn dinh ma phu

thudc vao CO quan quan ly Hen.

Neu CO quan quan ly Hen phat

hanh qua nhieu Hen se dan den

lam phat. Neu phat hanh qua it

tien se dan den suy thoai kinh

14

te. Trudng phai nay, nhu vay,

Cling nhat tri nhu Keynes khi

cho rang tang cung Hen d miie

hpp ly se cd the khac phuc dupe

suy thoai kinh te.

• Trudng phai trpng cung,

voi dai dien tieu bieu nha't

Robert Mundell (My, 1932-)

(giai Nobel ve Kinh te nam

1999), cho rang tang cung hang

hoa se lam tang cau hang hoa.

Tren thuc te, dieu nay rat diing.

Chang han, tang cuong xay

dung CO sd ha tang, mpt mat

d i n den tang eau ve xi mang,

sat thep.. .la tu lieu san xua't dau

vao cho xay dung, mat khac tao

ra nhieu viee lam va do dd tang

thu nhap cho nguoi lao ddng, va

do vay tang dupe kha nang va

nhu eau mua sam eiia hp tren

thi trudng. Mudn chdng suy

thoai kinh te, theo Mundell,

phai tang nang suat lao dpng

(tuong tu nhu quan diem ciia

Cac Mac la phai ddi mdi cong

nghe), de tang eau dau vao,

tang thu nhap eho doanh

nghiep, tir do kich thich ti&'t

kiem va tai dau tu. De tang ti6t

kiem va kich thich dau tu, cdn

phai giam thue (tuong tu nhu

Keynes), xoa bd ehuong ngai

cho dau tu tu nhan. Giam thue

se giam dupe chi phi san xua't

cho doanh nghiep, kich thich

doanh nghiep md rdng san

xuat, tao them cdng an vi^c lam,

Tai chinh THANG 7/2009