Miscellaneous problems in maritime navigation, transport and shipping : Marine navigation and safety of sea transportation

NAVIGATION, TRANSPORT AND SHIPPING

MISCELLANEOUS PROBLEMS IN MARITIME

MISCELLANEOUS

PROBLEMS IN MARITIME

NAVIGATION, TRANSPORT

AND SHIPPING

MARINE NAVIGATION

AND SAFETY OF SEA TRANSPORTATION

20

International Recent Issues about ECDIS,

e-Navigation and Safety at Sea

e-Navigation Concept

ECDIS

Visualization and Presentation of

Navigational Information

Data Transmission and Communication

Systems

Safety at Sea

Navigational Systems and Simulators

Global Navigation Satellite System

Positioning Systems

Navigational Simulators

Radar and Navigational Equipments

Ship Handling and Ship Manoeuvering

Search and Rescue

Methods and Algorithms in Navigation

Methods and Algorithms

Collision Avoidance

Geodetic Problems in Navigational

Applications

Route Planning in Marine Navigation

Aviation and Air Navigation

Human Resources and Crew Resource

Management

Crew Resource Management

Human Factors

STCW Convention

Maritime Education and Training

Piracy Problem

Health Problems

Maritime Ecology

Miscellaneous Problems in Maritime Navigation,

Transport and Shipping

Weather Routing and Meteorological Aspects

Ice Navigation

Ship Construction

Ship Propulsion and Fuel Effi ciency

Safe Shipping and Environment in the Baltic

Sea Region

Oil Spill Response

Large Cetaceans

Transport Systems and Processes

Transportation

Information and Computer Systems

in Transport Process

Maritime Transport Policy

Maritime Law

Ships Monitoring System; A Decision

Support Tool

Inland Navigation

WEINTRIT, A. NEUMANN, T.

CO-EDITORS

EDITED BY

ADAM WEINTRIT

TOMASZ NEUMANN

an informa business

Transnav_M05nw.indd 1 16-05-11 13:54

MISCELLANEOUS PROBLEMS IN MARITIME NAVIGATION, TRANSPORT

AND SHIPPING

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Miscellaneous Problems

in Maritime Navigation,

Transport and Shipping

Marine Navigation and

Safety of Sea Transportation

Editors

Adam Weintrit & Tomasz Neumann

Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

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CRC Press

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5

List of reviewers

Prof. Roland Akselsson, Lund University, Sweden,

Prof. Yasuo Arai, President of Japan Institute of Navigation, Japan,

Prof. Michael Barnett, Southampton Solent University, United Kingdom,

Prof. Tor Einar Berg, Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute, Trondheim, Norway,

Prof. Alfred Brandowski, GdaĔsk University of Technology, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Zbigniew Burciu, Master Mariner, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Shyy Woei Chang, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Taiwan,

Prof. Adam Charchalis, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Krzysztof Chwesiuk, Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland,

Prof. Krzysztof Czaplewski, Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland,

Prof. Andrzej Felski, President of Polish Navigation Forum, Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland,

Prof. Wlodzimierz Filipowicz, Master Mariner, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Masao Furusho, Master Mariner, Kobe University, Japan,

Prof. Avtandil Gegenava, Batumi Maritime Academy, Georgia,

Prof. Witold Gierusz, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Stanislaw Gorski, Master Mariner, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Lucjan Gucma, Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland,

Prof. Michal Holec, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Qinyou Hu, Shanghai Maritime University, China,

Prof. Marek Idzior, Poznan University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Mirosáaw Jurdzinski, Master Mariner, FNI, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Lech Kobylinski, Polish Academy of Sciences, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Krzysztof Kolowrocki, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Serdjo Kos, FRIN, University of Rijeka, Croatia,

Prof. Eugeniusz Kozaczka, Polish Acoustical Society, Gdansk University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Andrzej Krolikowski, Master Mariner, Maritime Office in Gdynia, Poland,

Prof. Pentti Kujala, Helsinki University of Technology, Helsinki, Finland,

Prof. Jan Kulczyk, Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Bogumil Laczynski, Master Mariner, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Andrzej Lewinski, Radom University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Mirosáaw Luft, President of Radom University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Zbigniew Lukasik, Radom University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Artur Makar, Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland,

Prof. Aleksey Marchenko, University Centre in Svalbard, Norway,

Prof. Torgeir Moan, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway,

Prof. Wacáaw Morgas, Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland,

Prof. Nikitas Nikitakos, University of the Aegean, Greece,

Prof. Wiesáaw Ostachowicz, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Mr. David Patraiko, MBA, FNI, The Nautical Institute, UK,

Prof. Vytautas Paulauskas, Master Marine, Maritime Institute College, Klaipeda University, Lithuania,

Prof. Francisco Piniella, University of Cadiz, Spain,

Prof. Marcin Plinski, University of Gdansk, Poland,

Prof. Chaojian Shi, Shanghai Maritime University, China,

Prof. Leszek Smolarek, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Jac Spaans, Netherlands Institute of Navigation, The Netherlands,

Prof. Cezary Specht, Polish Naval Academy, Gdynia, Poland,

Cmdr. Bengt Stahl, Nordic Institute of Navigation, Sweden,

Prof. Anna Styszynska, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

Prof. Janusz Szpytko, AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland,

Prof. ElĪbieta Szychta, Radom University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Mykola Tsymbal, Odessa National Maritime Academy, Ukraine,

Prof. Waldemar Uchacz, Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland,

Prof. Dang Van Uy, President of Vietnam Maritime University, Haiphong, Vietnam,

Prof. Peter Voersmann, President of German Institute of Navigation DGON, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Ortung und

Navigation, Germany,

Prof. Vladimir Volkogon, Rector of Baltic Fishing Fleet State Academy, Kaliningrad, Russia,

Prof. Adam Weintrit, Master Mariner, FRIN, FNI, Gdynia Maritime University, Poland,

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6

Prof. Krzysztof Wierzcholski, Koszalin University of Technology, Poland,

Prof. Bernard Wisniewski, Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland,

Prof. Adam Wolski, Master Mariner, MNI, Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland,

Prof. Hideo Yabuki, Master Mariner, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo, Japan,

Prof. Homayoun Yousefi, MNI, Chabahar Maritime University, Iran,

Prof. Wu Zhaolin, Dalian Maritime University, China

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7

Contents

Miscellaneous Problems in Maritime Navigation, Transport & Shipping Introduction ..................... 9

A. Weintrit & T. Neumann

Weather Routing and Meteorological Aspects ....................................................................................... 11

1. Elements of Tropical Cyclones Avoidance Procedure ...................................................................... 13

B. WiĞniewski & P. Kaczmarek

2. Baltic Navigation in Ice in the Twenty First Century ....................................................................... 17

M. Sztobryn

3. Storm-surges Indicator for the Polish Baltic Coast ........................................................................... 25

I. Stanisáawczyk

4. Polish Seaports – Unfavorable Weather Conditions for Port Operation (Applying Methods

of Complex Climatology for Data Formation to be Used by Seafaring) .......................................... 33

J. Ferdynus

5. Analysis of Hydrometeorological Characteristics in Port of Kulevi Zone ........................................ 43

A. Gegenava & G. Khaidarov

6. Hydro-meteorological Characteristics of the Montenegrin Coast ..................................................... 49

J. ûurþiü & S. Šoškiü

Ice Navigation .......................................................................................................................................... 57

7. Ship’s Navigational Safety in the Arctic Unsurveyed Regions ......................................................... 59

T. Pastusiak

8. Methods of Iceberg Towing .............................................................................................................. 65

A. Marchenko & K. Eik

9. Ice Management – From the Concept to Realization ........................................................................ 75

I.Ye. Frolov, Ye.U. Mironov, G.K. Zubakin, Yu.P. Gudoshnikov, A.V. Yulin,

V.G. Smirnov & I.V. Buzin

Ship Construction .................................................................................................................................... 81

10. Investigations of Marine Safety Improvements by Structural Health Monitoring Systems ............. 83

L. Murawski, S. Opoka, K. Majewska, M. Mieloszyk, W. Ostachowicz & A. Weintrit

11. Ultrasonic Sampling Phased Array Testing as a Replacement for X-ray Testing

of Weld Joints in Ship Construction .................................................................................................. 91

A. Bulavinov, R. Pinchuk, S. Pudovikov & C. Boller

12. Conditions of Carrying Out and Verification of Diagnostic Evaluation in a Vessel ........................ 95

A. Charchalis

13. Determination of Ship’s Angle of Dynamic Heel Based on Model Tests ...................................... 101

W. Mironiuk & A. PawlĊdzio

14. Propulsive and Stopping Performance Analysis of Cellular Container Carriers ............................ 107

J. Artyszuk

15. Coalescence Filtration with an Unwoven Fabric Barrier in Oil Bilge Water Separation

on Board Ships ................................................................................................................................ 115

J. Gutteter-GrudziĔski

Ship Propulsion and Fuel Efficiency.................................................................................................... 123

16. Optimization of Hybrid Propulsion Systems ................................................................................... 125

E. Sciberras & A. Grech

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8

17. Integrating Modular Hydrogen Fuel Cell Drives for Ship Propulsion: Prospectus and

Challenges ....................................................................................................................................... 133

P. Upadhyay, Y. Amani & R. Burke

18. Modelling of Power Management System on Ship by Using Petri Nets ........................................ 139

M. Krþum, A. Gudelj & L. Žižiü

19. Logical Network of Data Transmission Impulses in Journal-Bearing Design ................................ 145

K. Wierzcholski

20. Optimum Operation of Coastal Merchant Ships with Consideration of Arrival Delay Risk

and Fuel Efficiency .......................................................................................................................... 149

K. Takashima, B. Mezaoui & R. Shoji

21. Digital Multichannel Electro-Hydraulic Execution Improves the Ship’s Steering Operation

and the Safety at Sea (Security of the Navigation Act) ................................................................... 157

ùt. Dordea

Safe Shipping and Environment in the Baltic Sea Region .................................................................. 163

22. Towards the Model of Traffic Flow on the Southern Baltic Based on Statistical Data .................. 165

A. Puszcz & L. Gucma

23. Incidents Analysis on the Basis of Traffic Monitoring Data in Pomeranian Bay ........................... 171

L. Gucma & K. Marcjan

24. Model of Time Differences Between Schedule and Actual Time of Departure of Sea Ferries

in the ĝwinoujĞcie Harbour ............................................................................................................. 175

L. Gucma & M. Przywarty

25. Simplified Risk Analysis of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland ........................................... 181

F. Goerlandt, M. Hänninen, K. Stahlberg, J. Montewka & P. Kujala

26. Estimating the Number of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland in 2015 ................................. 189

M. Hänninen, P. Kujala, J. Ylitalo & J. Kuronen

Oil Spill Response .................................................................................................................................. 195

27. The Method of Optimal Allocation of Oil Spill Response in the Region of Baltic Sea .................. 197

L. Gucma, W. Juszkiewicz & K. àazuga

28. Modeling of Accidental Bunker Oil Spills as a Result of Ship’s Bunker Tanks Rupture –

a Case Study .................................................................................................................................... 203

P. Krata, J. Jachowski & J. Montewka

29. The Profile of Polish Oil Spill Fighting System .............................................................................. 209

A. Bąk & K. Ludwiczak

Large Cetaceans ..................................................................................................................................... 213

30. Towards Safer Navigation of Hydrofoils: Avoiding Sudden Collisions with Cetaceans ............... 215

H. Kato, H. Yamada, K. Shakata, A. Odagawa, R. Kagami, Y. Yonehara, M. Terada,

K. Sakuma, H. Mori, I. Tanaka, H. Sugioka & M. Kyo

31. Estimation on Audibility of Large Cetaceans for Improvement of the Under Water Speaker ....... 221

H. Yamada, L. Kagami, Y. Yonehara, H. Matsunaga, H. Kato, M. Terada, R. Takahashi,

K. Okanoya & T. Kawamoto

32. Feasibility on Infrared Detection of Cetaceans for Avoiding Collision with Hydrofoil ................. 227

Y. Yonehara, L. Kagami, H. Yamada, H. Kato, M. Terada & S. Okada

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9

PREFACE

The contents of the book are partitioned into seven

parts: weather routing and meteorological aspects

(covering the chapters 1 through 6), ice navigation

(covering the chapters 7 through 9), ship construc￾tion (covering the chapters 10 through 15), ship pro￾pulsion and fuel efficiency (covering the chapters 16

through 21), safe shipping and environment in the

Baltic Sea Region (covering the chapters 22 through

26), oil spill response (covering the chapter 27

through 29), large cetaceans (covering the chapters

30 through 32).

The first part deals with weather routing and me￾teorological aspects. The contents of the first part are

partitioned into six chapters: Elements of tropical

cyclones avoidance procedure, Baltic navigation in

ice in twenty first century, Storm-surges indicator

for the Polish Baltic Coast, Polish seaports – unfa￾vorable weather conditions for port operation (ap￾plying methods of complex climatology for data

formation to be used by seafaring), Analysis of hy￾drometeorological characteristics in Port of Kulevi

zone, and Hydrometeorological characteristics of the

Montenegrin coast.

The second part deals with ice navigation. The

contents of the second part are partitioned into three

chapters: Ship’s navigational safety in the Arctic un￾surveyed regions, Methods of iceberg towing, Ice

management – from conception to realization.

The third part deals with ship construction. The

contents of the third part are partitioned into six

chapters: Investigations of marine safety improve￾ments by structural health monitoring systems, Ul￾trasonic sampling phased array testing as a replace￾ment for X-ray testing of weld joints in ship

construction, Conditions of carrying out and verifi￾cation of diagnostic evaluation in a vessel, Determi￾nation of ship's angle of dynamic heel based on

model tests, Propulsive and stopping performance

analysis of cellular container carriers, and Coales￾cence filtration with an unwoven fabric barrier in oil

bilge water separation on board ships.

The fourth part deals with ship propulsion and

fuel efficiency. The contents of the fourth part are

partitioned into six chapters: Optimization of hybrid

propulsion systems, Integrating modular hydrogen

fuel cell drives for ship propulsion: prospectus and

challenges, Modeling of power management system

on ship by using Petri Nets, Logical network of data

transmission impulses in journal-bearing design, Op￾timum operation of coastal merchant ships with con￾sideration of arrival delay risk and fuel efficiency,

and Digital multichannel electro-hydraulic hxecution

improves the ship’s steering operation and the safety

at sea (security of the navigation act).

The fifth part deals with safe shipping and envi￾ronment in the Baltic Sea Region. The contents of

the fifth part are partitioned into five chapters: To￾wards the model of traffic flow on the Southern Bal￾tic based on statistical data, Incidents analysis on the

basis of traffic monitoring data in Pomeranian Bay,

Model of time differences between schedule and ac￾tual time of departure of sea ferries in the

ĝwinoujĞcie Harbour, Simplified risk analysis of

tanker collisions in the Gulf of Finland, and Esti￾mating the number of tanker collisions in the Gulf of

Finland in 2015.

The sixth part deals with oil spill response. The

contents of the fifth part are partitioned into three

chapters: The method of optimal allocation of oil

spill response in the Region of Baltic Sea, Modeling

of accidental bunker oil spills as a result of ship’s

bunker tanks rupture - a case study, and The profile

of Polish oil spill fighting system.

The seventh part deals with large cetaceans. The

contents of the seventh part are partitioned into three

chapters: Towards safer navigation of hydrofoils:

avoiding sudden collisions with cetaceans, Estima￾tion on audibility of large cetaceans for improve￾ment of the under water speaker, and Feasibility

study on infrared detecting of large cetaceans to

avoid sudden collisions.

Miscellaneous Problems in Maritime Navigation, Transport & Shipping

Introduction

A. Weintrit & T. Neumann

Gdynia Maritime University, Gdynia, Poland

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Weather Routing and Meteorological Aspects

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Weather Routing and Meteorological Aspects

Miscellaneous Problems in Maritime Navigation, Transport and Shipping – Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation – Weintrit & Neumann (ed.)

13

1 INTRODUCTION

In areas where tropical cyclones occur navigators

must apply the procedure for obtaining information

and the identification of the danger on the expected

track of the vessel, the accuracy in determining the

sectors safe and unsafe, taking into account velocity

vectors of the ship (Vs) and the cyclone (Vc). As a

result, we decide how to most effectively avoid the

area threatened by a tropical cyclone [1-5].

The means for using the procedure include a

computer program developed by these authors, de￾scribed in previous publications [6]. Among others,

the software takes into account the procedure for

programming the route of the vessel at the time of

receiving the message about the cyclone for the fol￾lowing hours and days, with forecasts of expected

cyclone positions, and predicted by calculations fu￾ture positions of the ship.

2 PROCEDURES AND METHODOLOGY

One may find that being together with the cyclone

vessel is possible in three specific situations:

 vessel and cyclone move in opposite directions

(ahead or nearly ahead of the ship);

 vessel catches up with the cyclone on a similar

course;

 projected route of the ship crosses the projected

path of the cyclone (eye of the cyclone track) at

an angle of (30° ÷ 90°) and the moment when the

ship will enter the waters on tropical cyclone

threat.

For these three variants examples were tested,

based on real data on cyclones in the years 2008 -

2010 and for the actual and random positions of se￾lected ships owned by the Polish Steamship Compa￾ny (PSC). Typically, for one cyclone four vessels in

positions spaced symmetrically around the cyclone

were chosen, that is, from the point of dangerous

winds • 34 kn. The moment of decision-making was

the situation when calculations showed the entry of

the vessel in a dangerous sector of the cyclone in

less than 48 hours (TCPA)

The test results will be illustrated by a situation,

where the cyclone Bill was being avoided from 20 to

23 August 2009. The cyclone moved along a para￾bolic trajectory across the North Atlantic. Part of the

first message of 20 Aug 2009 is shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Fragment of a message printout: cyclone BILL on

20/08//2009

___________________________________________________

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER

21...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL032009

1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2009

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 61.7W AT

20/1500Z

AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N

61.0W

1. Elements of Tropical Cyclones Avoidance Procedure

B. WiĞniewski & P. Kaczmarek

Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland

ABSTRACT: The updated version of the Cyclone II program was used for analyzing hundreds of cases where

ships were facing dozens of developed cyclones. The program generates directions for navigators that are

recommended for consideration before making decisions on passing around or avoiding tropical cyclones.

Three specific situations were defined where a vessel may enter the area affected by a tropical cyclone, and its

commander must consider three recommendations for safe passing of the cyclone:

– vessel – cyclone encounter, where if on opposite course, the most effective is course alteration;

– when the ship overtakes the cyclone, speed reduction is the most effective action;

– when the vessel and the cyclone are on crossing routes (30 ÷ 90°), a slight decrease in speed or a slight

course alteration or both actions can be effective.

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14

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 63.8W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 200SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.6N 66.0W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 32.5N 69.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.

___________________________________________________

Four ship positions for 12.00 (20.08.2009)

 a ship at the port road of New York travelling to

Brazil,

 vessel B in the position ij = 15.07qN,

O =059.9qW on the way to N. York,

 ship in the Mona Passage ij = 18.04°N,

O =074.98qW on the way to Europe,

 ship in the actual position D ij = 40°N,

O = 040qW on the way to N. York,

 and the position of the cyclone ijc = 22.1°N,

O = 061qW at the same time and day.

In connection with weather forecasts for the next

12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours, cyclone positions were

taken from messages and then future ship’s positions

were calculated.

3 RESULTS

For ship (A) departing from New York after receiv￾ing a message about the cyclone, data were entered

to the computing program "Cyclone II ":

 their position, intended course (course over

ground = 15q) to Brazil, and the estimated speed

of 13,

 data on the location of the cyclone, its course and

speed (vertical panel) - Fig.1.,

 data on forecasts of the cyclone 12, 24, 36, 48, 72

hours (horizontal panel) - Fig.1.

The calculation results indicate that the ship pro￾ceeds to a dangerous course sector 149q - 197q,

1254.7 Nm from the eye of the cyclone, and after

43.7 hours (TCPA) it will reach the closest point ap￾proach 234Nm (CPA). By obtaining the cyclone po￾sition from 72 hour forecast illustrating the predicted

cyclone movement path, the captain chooses a new

ship’s course (COG = 180q) and decides to check

what the vessel and cyclone positions will be in 12,

24, 36, 48 and 72 hours. Figure 2 illustrates the re￾sults of calculations and relative ship – cyclone posi￾tions after 24 hours. The ship passes the cyclone af￾ter 48 hours and alters the new COG = 130q to

return on route to Brazil, being safe on this course at

a distance of 328.4 Nm from cyclone eye (Fig. 3).

Finally, the ship extends its distance covered by

210Nm, maintaining a speed of 13.2 kn, i.e. and

will prolong the voyage by 16 hours to pass by the

cyclone.

For ship (B) in position: 51.07qN, 059.9qW on

the way to New York (COG = 230q, Vs = 23kn) it is

estimated that it is on a dangerous course (308 ÷

343q) and after 37.8 hours will be at the closest point

approach, i.e. 129.2 Nm from the cyclone influence,

affected by winds • 34 knots (Fig. 4). The ship has

to reduce its speed below 19.1 kn.

To avoid entry into the cyclone-affected area, the

vessel loses 72Nm (3 x 24), which means proceed￾ing at a speed of 19.1kn. This prolongs the expected

time of voyage by about 3 hrs 40 min.

Ship (C), sailing in the Mona Passage on its way

to Europe, performs testing to pass by the cyclone

Bill for the same times on 20.08.2009. The infor￾mation obtained is that it is on the boundary of dan￾gerous sector (331q to 55q) remaining on course

COG = 055q and sailing at a speed of 13 knots (re￾sults in the vertical panel - Figure 5). By introducing

cyclone data forecast to the program Cyclone II for

up to 72 hours, the ship commander finds out that

continuing the trip at a speed Vs = 13.0kn, after 12

hours (Fig. 6) its COG = 055q, while the ship will

get into a safe sector reaching the closest point of

approach 333.4 Nm from the cyclone eye. For this

situation no changes of speed and course relative to

the cyclone Bill are needed, therefore neither dis￾tance not voyage time will be extended.

On 20.08.2009. at 12.00UTC ship (D) is very far

from the cyclone, in position ij = 40°N, O =

039.15qW and on course COG = 270q on the way to

New York. From entered forecast data and expected

vessel positions (Vs = 13.0kn), only simulation (test￾ing) for 48 hours shows that ship’s course will ap￾proach the dangerous sector (272q-358q), then sail￾ing at a distance of 907.16 Nm from the cyclone eye

(Fig. 7). A simulated situation for passing the cy￾clone Bill is shown in Figure 7, 8 and 9 for August

22nd 2009. The ship, sailing one day on course COG

= 230q and then returning to the course COG = 288q

leading to New York, extended the original rhum￾bline route by about 104 Nm only, corresponding to

a prolonged travel time of 8 hours. The ship made a

successful maneuver, passing the cyclone at a dis￾tance of 338Nm from the outer cyclone dangerous

area, where wave heights were 4.0m • m. Perform￾ing simulations of the cyclone and ship position pro￾Untitled-5 14 ntitled-5 14 17/05/2011 11:00:25 7/05/2011 11:00:25