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Microsoft Excel data analysis and business modeling
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Microsoft Excel data analysis and business modeling

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< Day Day Up >

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling

by Wayne L. Winston ISBN:0735619018

Microsoft Press © 2004 (616 pages)

Use this resource to apply the techniques that business

analysts at leading companies use to analyze and transform

data into bottom line results, and use Microsoft Excel for data

analysis, modeling, and decision making.

Table of Contents

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling

Introduction

Chapter 1 - Range Names

Chapter 2 - Natural Language Range Names

Chapter 3 - Lookup Functions

Chapter 4 - The INDEX Function

Chapter 5 - The MATCH Function

Chapter 6 - Text Functions

Chapter 7 - Dates and Date Functions

Chapter 8 - Evaluating Investments with Net Present Value Criteria

Chapter 9 - Internal Rate of Return

Chapter 10 -

Functions for Personal Financial Decisions: The PV, FV, PMT, PPMT,

and IPMT Functions

Chapter 11 - Circular References

Chapter 12 - IF Statements

Chapter 13 - The Paste Special Command

Chapter 14 - The Auditing Tool

Chapter 15 - Sensitivity Analysis with Data Tables

Chapter 16 - The Goal Seek Command

Chapter 17 - Using the Scenario Manager for Sensitivity Analysis

Chapter 18 - Creating and Using Spinners for Sensitivity Analysis

Chapter 19 - The COUNTIF, COUNT, COUNTA, and COUNTBLANK Functions

Chapter 20 - The SUMIF Function

Chapter 21 - The OFFSET Function

Chapter 22 - The INDIRECT Function

Chapter 23 - Conditional Formatting

Chapter 24 - An Introduction to Optimization with the Excel Solver

Chapter 25 - Using Solver to Determine the Optimal Product Mix

Chapter 26 - Using Solver to Solve Transportation or Distribution Problems

Chapter 27 - Using Solver to Schedule Your Workforce

Chapter 28 - Using Solver for Capital Budgeting

Chapter 29 - Using Solver for Financial Planning

Chapter 30 - Using Solver to Rate Sports Teams

Chapter 31 - Importing Text or Microsoft Word Data into Excel

Chapter 32 - Importing Data from the Web into Excel

Chapter 33 - Validating Data

< Day Day Up >

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling

by Wayne L. Winston ISBN:0735619018

Microsoft Press © 2004 (616 pages)

Use this resource to apply the techniques that business

analysts at leading companies use to analyze and transform

data into bottom line results, and use Microsoft Excel for data

analysis, modeling, and decision making.

Table of Contents

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling

Introduction

Chapter 1 - Range Names

Chapter 2 - Natural Language Range Names

Chapter 3 - Lookup Functions

Chapter 4 - The INDEX Function

Chapter 5 - The MATCH Function

Chapter 6 - Text Functions

Chapter 7 - Dates and Date Functions

Chapter 8 - Evaluating Investments with Net Present Value Criteria

Chapter 9 - Internal Rate of Return

Chapter 10 -

Functions for Personal Financial Decisions: The PV, FV, PMT, PPMT,

and IPMT Functions

Chapter 11 - Circular References

Chapter 12 - IF Statements

Chapter 13 - The Paste Special Command

Chapter 14 - The Auditing Tool

Chapter 15 - Sensitivity Analysis with Data Tables

Chapter 16 - The Goal Seek Command

Chapter 17 - Using the Scenario Manager for Sensitivity Analysis

Chapter 18 - Creating and Using Spinners for Sensitivity Analysis

Chapter 19 - The COUNTIF, COUNT, COUNTA, and COUNTBLANK Functions

Chapter 20 - The SUMIF Function

Chapter 21 - The OFFSET Function

Chapter 22 - The INDIRECT Function

Chapter 23 - Conditional Formatting

Chapter 24 - An Introduction to Optimization with the Excel Solver

Chapter 25 - Using Solver to Determine the Optimal Product Mix

Chapter 26 - Using Solver to Solve Transportation or Distribution Problems

Chapter 27 - Using Solver to Schedule Your Workforce

Chapter 28 - Using Solver for Capital Budgeting

Chapter 29 - Using Solver for Financial Planning

Chapter 30 - Using Solver to Rate Sports Teams

Chapter 31 - Importing Text or Microsoft Word Data into Excel

Chapter 32 - Importing Data from the Web into Excel

Chapter 33 - Validating Data

Chapter 34 - Summarizing Data with Histograms

Chapter 35 - Summarizing Data with Descriptive Statistics

Chapter 36 - Using PivotTables to Describe Data

Chapter 37 - Summarizing Data with Database Statistical Functions

Chapter 38 - Filtering Data

Chapter 39 - Consolidating Data

Chapter 40 - Creating Subtotals

Chapter 41 - Estimating Straight Line Relationships

Chapter 42 - Modeling Exponential Growth

Chapter 43 - The Power Curve

Chapter 44 - Using Correlations to Summarize Relationships

Chapter 45 - Introduction to Multiple Regression

Chapter 46 - Incorporating Qualitative Factors into Multiple Regression

Chapter 47 - Modeling Nonlinearities and Interactions

Chapter 48 - Analysis of Variance: One-Way ANOVA

Chapter 49 - Randomized Blocks and Two-Way ANOVA

Chapter 50 - Using Moving Averages to Understand Time Series

Chapter 51 - Forecasting with Moving Averages

Chapter 52 - Forecasting in the Presence of Special Events

Chapter 53 - An Introduction to Random Variables

Chapter 54 - The Binomial and Hypergeometric Random Variables

Chapter 55 - The Poisson and Exponential Random Variable

Chapter 56 - The Normal Random Variable

Chapter 57 - Weibull and Beta Distributions: Modeling Machine Life and Duration

of a Project

Chapter 58 - Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation

Chapter 59 - Calculating an Optimal Bid

Chapter 60 - Simulating Stock Prices and Asset Allocation Modeling

Chapter 61 -

Fun and Games: Simulating Gambling and Sporting Event

Probabilities

Chapter 62 - Using Resampling to Analyze Data

Chapter 63 - Pricing Stock Options

Chapter 64 - Determining Customer Value

Chapter 65 - The Economic Order Quantity Inventory Model

Chapter 66 -

Determining the Reorder Point: How Low Should I Let My Inventory

Level Go Before I Reorder?

Chapter 67 - Queuing Theory: The Mathematics of Waiting in Line

Chapter 68 - Estimating a Demand Curve

Chapter 69 - Pricing Products with Tie-Ins

Chapter 70 - Pricing Products Using Subjectively Determined Demand

Chapter 71 - Nonlinear Pricing

Chapter 72 - Array Formulas and Functions

Chapter 73 - Picking Your Fantasy Football Team

Index

List of Figures

List of Tables

List of Sidebars

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< Day Day Up >

Back Cover

Now you can apply the techniques that business analysts at leading companies use to analyze and transform data into

bottom line results. For more than 10 years, well-known consultant and business professor Wayne Winston has been

teaching corporate clients and MBA candidates the most effective ways to use Microsoft Excel for data analysis,

modeling, and decision-making. This practical, business-focused guide delivers the best of Winston’s classroom

experience to you in 70+ concise chapters, organized by real-world scenarios. Quickly find and apply exactly the

information you need to solve a specific business problem—from asset allocation modeling to estimating exponential

growth, forecasting sales, optimizing portfolios, and other critical functions.

About the Author

Wayne L. Winston teaches decision sciences at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. For more than 10 years

he has taught business analysts how to use Excel to make better decisions. His clients include Bristol-Myers Squibb

Company; Cisco Systems, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; Ford Motor Company; General Motors Corporation; Intel

Corporation; Microsoft Corporation; NCR Corporation; Owens Corning; Pfizer, Inc.; Proctor & Gamble; the U.S. Army;

and the U.S. Department of Defense. Wayne and business partner Jeff Sagarin developed a player rating system that

the Dallas Mavericks use to identify statistical trends and evaluate players.

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Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling

Wayne L. Winston

PUBLISHED BY Microsoft Press A Division of Microsoft Corporation One Microsoft Way Redmond,

Washington 98052-6399

Copyright © 2004 by Wayne Winston

All rights reserved. No part of the contents of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by

any means without the written permission of the publisher.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Winston, Wayne L.

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling/ Wayne Winston. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-7356-

1901-8 1. Industrial management--Statistical methods--Computer programs. 2. Decision making--Computer

programs. 3. Microsoft Excel (Computer file) I. Title.

HD30.215.W56 2004 005.54--dc22 2003064860

Printed and bound in the United States of America.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 QWT 8 7 6 5 4 3

Distributed in Canada by H.B. Fenn and Company Ltd.

A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Microsoft Press books are available through booksellers and distributors worldwide. For further information

about international editions, contact your local Microsoft Corporation office or contact Microsoft Press

International directly at fax (425) 936-7329. Visit our Web site at www.microsoft.com/mspress. Send

comments to mspinput@microsoft.com.

Microsoft, Microsoft Press, MSN, PivotChart, PivotTable, Windows, the Windows logo, and Xbox are either

registered trademarks or trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other countries.

Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.

The example companies, organizations, products, domain names, e-mail addresses, logos, people, places,

and events depicted herein are fictitious. No association with any real company, organization, product,

domain name, e-mail address, logo, person, place, or event is intended or should be inferred.

This book expresses the author's views and opinions. The information contained in this book is provided

without any express, statutory, or implied warranties. Neither the authors, Microsoft Corporation, nor its

resellers or distributors will be held liable for any damages caused or alleged to be caused either directly or

indirectly by this book.

Acquisitions Editor: Alex Blanton

Project Editors: Jean Trenary and Kristine Haugseth

Technical Editor: John Pierce

Indexer: Liz Cunningham

Body Part No. X10-21791

About the Author

Wayne L. Winston is a professor of decision sciences at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. He

has earned MBA teaching awards for 18 consecutive years and regularly teaches business analysts how to

use Microsoft Excel to make better decisions. Wayne also consults for several Fortune 500 clients, including

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; Cisco Systems, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; Ford Motor Company; General

Motors Corporation; Intel Corporation; Microsoft Corporation; NCR Corporation; Owens Corning; Pfizer, Inc.;

Proctor & Gamble; the U.S. Army; and the U.S. Department of Defense. He and business partner Jeff

Sagarin developed the statistics tracking and rating system used by the Dallas Mavericks professional

basketball team. Wayne is also a two time Jeopardy! Champion.

Acknowledgments

I'm eternally grateful to Jennifer Skoog and Norm Tonina, who had faith in me and first hired me to teach

Excel classes for Microsoft finance. Jennifer in particular was instrumental in helping me design the content

and style of the classes on which this book is based. Keith Lange of Eli Lilly and Company, Pat Keating and

Doug Hoppe of Cisco Systems, Inc., and Dennis Fuller of the U.S. Army also helped me refine my thoughts

on teaching data analysis and modeling with Excel.

I am grateful to my many students at the organizations where I've taught and at the Kelley School of

Business. Many of them have taught me things I did not know about Excel.

Alex Blanton of Microsoft Press championed the project and shared my vision of developing a user-friendly

text designed for use by working business analysts. An author could not ask for a better editor than John

Pierce. He unfailingly corrected my grammatical shortcomings and did not hesitate to make necessary

changes. Microsoft Press did a great job with the production process and made writing a book as painless as

possible.

Finally, my wonderful family put up with my long absences during the year in which the book was written. My

lovely and talented wife, Vivian, is always patient and inspiring. My daughter, Jennifer, and son, Gregory,

inspired many of the book's examples. Even our dog, Honey, helped by barking less when she saw I was

working!

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Introduction

Whether you work for a Fortune 500 corporation, a small company, a government agency, or a not-for-profit

organization, if you're reading this introduction, the chances are that you use Microsoft Excel in your daily

work. Your job probably involves summarizing, reporting, and analyzing data, and it might also involve

building analytical models to help your employer increase profits, reduce costs, or just manage operations

more efficiently.

Over the past decade, I've taught thousands of analysts at organizations such as Bristol-Myers Squibb

Company; Cisco Systems, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; Ford Motor Company; General Motors Corporation;

Intel Corporation; Microsoft Corporation; NCR Corporation; Owens Corning; Pfizer, Inc.; Proctor & Gamble;

the U.S. Army; and the U.S. Department of Defense how to use Excel more efficiently and productively in

their jobs. At each of these organizations, my classes have received uniformly positive evaluations. Students

have often told me that using the tools and methods I teach in my classes has saved them hours of time each

week and has provided them with new and improved approaches for analyzing important business problems.

I've used the techniques described in this book in my own consulting practice to solve many business

problems. We even use Excel to help the Dallas Mavericks basketball team and its owner Mark Cuban

evaluate NBA referees, players, and lineups! I have also taught an Excel business modeling and data

analysis course to MBA students for many years at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. (As proof

of my teaching excellence, I have received an MBA teaching award for 18 consecutive years.)

The book you have in your hands is an attempt to try and make these successful classes available to

everyone. Here is why I think this book will help you learn how to get more from Excel:

The materials have been tested and used successfully in the classes

I've taught for the U.S. Army and a number of Fortune 500 companies.

I've written the book as though I'm talking to the reader. This approach hopefully transfers the spirit of a

successful classroom environment to the written page.

I teach by example, which makes concepts easier to master. These examples are constructed to have a 'real￾world' feel. Many of the examples are based on questions sent to me by former students working at Fortune

500 corporations.

For the most part, I lead you through the approaches I take to set up and answer a wide range of data

analysis and business questions in Excel. You can follow along with my explanations by referring to the

sample worksheets that accompany each example. However, I've also included template files for the

examples presented in this book on the book's companion CD. If you want, these templates enable you

to work directly with Excel and complete each example on your own.

For the most part, the chapters are short and organized around a single concept. You should be able to

master the content of most chapters with at most two hours of study. By looking at the questions that

begin each chapter, you'll gain an idea about the types of problems you'll be able to solve after mastering

a chapter's topics.

You won't just learn about Excel formulas in this book. You will learn some important math in a fairly

painless fashion. For example, you'll learn something about statistics, forecasting, optimization models,

Monte Carlo simulation, inventory modeling, and the mathematics of waiting in line. You will also learn

about some new developments in business thinking (real options, computing customer value,

mathematical pricing models, and so on).

At the end of each chapter, I've provided a group of problems (a total of nearly 400 in all) that you can

work through on your own. These problems will help you determine whether you've mastered the

concepts in each chapter. Answers to all the problems are included on the CD that accompanies this

book.

Most of all, learning should be fun. If you read this book, you will learn how to predict U.S. presidential

elections, how to set football point spreads, how to determine the probability of winning at craps, and how

to determine the probability of each team winning the NBA finals. These examples are interesting and

fun, and they also teach you a lot of useful things about Excel.

You can follow almost all of the examples in this book whether you are working with Microsoft Office Excel

2003 (the newest version of Excel), Microsoft Excel 2002 or Microsoft Excel 2000.

What You Should Know Before Reading This Book

To follow the examples in this book, you don't need to be an expert in Excel. Basically, the two key actions

you should know how to perform are the following:

How to enter a formula You should know that formulas must begin with an equal sign (=). You should

also know the basic mathematical operators. For example, you should know that an asterisk (*) is used

for multiplication and a forward slash (/) is used for division.

How to work with cell references You should know that when you copy a formula that contains a cell

reference such as $A$4 (an absolute cell reference, which is created by the dollar signs), the formula will

still refer to cell $A$4 in the cells you copy it to. When you copy a formula that contains a cell reference

such as $A4 (a mixed cell address), the column (A) will remain fixed, but the row number (4) will change.

When you copy a formula that contains a cell reference such as A$4 (a mixed cell address), the row will

remain fixed, but the column will change. Finally, when you copy a formula that contains a cell reference

such as A4 (a relative cell reference), both the row and the column of the cells referenced in the formula

will change.

Essentially, that's all you need to know about Excel to read and benefit from this book. Starting from this

narrow base of knowledge, I'll show you the amazing things you can do with Excel.

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How to Use This Book

As you read along with the examples in this book, you can take one of two approaches. You can open the

template that corresponds to the example you are studying and complete each step of the example as you

read the book. You will be surprised how easy this process is and how much you'll learn and retain. You can

also follow my explanations as you look at the final version of each sample file instead of filling in the

template.

Using the Companion CD

The CD-ROM that accompanies this book contains the sample files you use in the book's examples (both the

final Excel workbooks and the template files you can work with on your own). The workbooks and templates

are organized in folders that are named for each chapter. The answers to all chapter-ending problems in the

book are also included on the book's CD. Each answer file is named so that you can identify it easily. For

example, the answer to problem 2 in Chapter 10 is in the file named S10_2.xls.

To use the CD, insert it into your CD-ROM drive. If AutoRun is not enabled on your computer, double-click the

file StartCD.exe in the root folder of the CD. (You'll be presented with a licensing agreement that you need to

accept before you can install the files that come on the CD.) The sample files will be copied to the folder

C:\Microsoft Press\Excel Data Analysis by default.

The CD also contains a version of Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business-Modeling in PDF format.

Adobe Reader is required to view the PDF version of the book. The CD includes a link to Adobe's Web site,

where you can download a copy of Adobe Reader if you don't already have a copy installed on your

computer. (You can download Adobe Reader free of charge.)

System Requirements

To work with this book's sample files, your computer must meet the following minimum system requirements:

A minimum of 40 MB of available hard disk space is required to install the sample files.

A copy of Microsoft Excel 2000, Microsoft Excel 2002, or Microsoft

Office Excel 2003 needs to be installed.

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Support Information

Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this book and the contents of the companion CD. To

provide feedback on the book's content or the companion CD, you can send e-mail to

mspinput@microsoft.com, or write to us at the following address:

Microsoft Excel Data Analysis and Business Modeling Editor

Microsoft Press/Microsoft Learning

One Microsoft Way

Redmond, WA 98052

Microsoft Press provides corrections for books through the World Wide Web at

http://www.microsoft.com/learning/support/. To connect directly to the Microsoft Press Knowledge Base and

enter a query regarding a question or issue that you might have, go to http://www.microsoft.com/learning/

support/search.asp. For support information regarding Microsoft Excel, you can connect to Microsoft

Technical Support on the Web at http://support.microsoft.com/.

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Chapter 1: Range Names

Overview

I want to add up sales in Arizona, California, Montana, New York, and New Jersey. Can I use a formula to

compute total sales in a form such as AZ+CA+MT+NY+NJ instead of SUM(A21:A25) and still get the

right answer?

To compute total sales for a year, I often average the 12 monthly sales below the current cell. Can I

name my formula annualaverage so that when I enter annualaverage in a cell the appropriate average is

computed?

How can I easily select a cell range?

How can I paste a list of all range names (and the cells they represent) into my spreadsheet?

You have probably received spreadsheets that use formulas such as SUM(A5000:A5049). Then you have to

struggle to understand what's contained in cells A5000:A5049. If cells A5000:A5049 contain sales in each

U.S. state, wouldn't the spreadsheet be easier to understand if the formula was SUM(USSales)? In this

chapter, I'll teach you how to name individual cells, ranges of cells, constants, and formulas. I'll also show you

how to use range names in formulas.

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How Can I Create Range Names?

There are three ways to create range names:

Entering a range name in the Name box

Choosing the Name, Create command from the Insert menu

Choosing the Name, Define command from the Insert menu

Using the Name Box to Create a Range Name

The Name box is located directly above the label for column A, as you can see in Figure 1-1. (To see the

Name box, you need to display the Formula bar.) To create a range name using the Name box, simply select

with the mouse the cell or range of cells that you want to name, click in the Name box, and then type the

range name you want to use. Press Enter, and you've created the range name. Clicking on the drop-down

arrow for the Name box displays the range names defined in the current workbook. You can also display all

the range names in a workbook by pressing the F3 button, which displays the Paste Name dialog box. When

you select a range name from the Name box, Excel selects the cells corresponding to that range name. This

enables you to check that you've chosen the cell or range that you intended to.

Figure 1-1: You can create a range name by selecting the cell range you want to name and then typing

the range name in the Name box.

Creating Range Names by Using the Name Create Command

The spreadsheet States.xls contains sales during March for each of the 50 U.S. states. Figure 1-2 shows a

subset of this data. We would like to name each cell in the range B6:B55 with the correct state abbreviation.

To do this, select the range A6:B55, choose Insert, Name Create, and then choose the Create Names In Left

Column option, as indicated in Figure 1-3.

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Figure 1-2: By naming the cells that contain state sales with state abbreviations, you can use the

abbreviation when you refer to the cell rather than the cell's column and row number.

Figure 1-3: Use the Name, Create command on the Insert menu to name cell ranges. The Create

Names dialog box provides options for naming cell ranges.

Excel now knows to associate the names in the left column of the selected range with the cells in the second

column of the selected range. Thus B6 is assigned the range name AL, B7 is named AK, and so on. Note

that creating these range names in the Name box would have been incredibly tedious! Click on the drop￾down arrow in the Name box if you don't believe that these range names have been created.

Creating Range Names by Using the Name Define Command

If you choose the Insert, Name Define command, the dialog box shown in Figure 1-4 comes up.

Figure 1-4: The Define Name dialog box before creating any range names.

Suppose you want to assign the name range1 (range names are not case sensitive) to the cell range A2:B7.

Simply type range1 in the Names In Workbook box and then go down to the Refers To area and point to the

range or type in =A2:B7. Click Add, and you're done. The Define Name dialog box will now look like Figure 1-

5.

Figure 1-5: Define Name dialog box after creating a range name.

Of course, if you now click in the Name box, the name range1 will appear. Now let's look at some specific

examples of how to use range names.

I want to add up sales in Arizona, California, Montana, New York, and New Jersey. Can I use a formula

to compute total sales in a form such as AZ+ CA+ MT+ NY+ NJ instead of SUM(A21:A25) and still get

the right answer?

Let's return to the file States.xls in which we assigned each state's abbreviation as the range name for the

state's sales. If we want to compute total sales in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, and Arkansas, we could clearly

use the formula SUM(B6:B9). We could also point to cells B6, B7, B8, and B9, and the formula would be

entered as =AL+AK+AZ+AR. The latter formula is, of course, much easier to understand.

As another illustration of how to use range names, look at the file HistoricalInvest.xls, shown in Figure 1-6,

which contains annual percentage returns on stocks, T-Bills, and bonds. (The rows for years 1935-1996 are

hidden.)

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Figure 1-6: Historical investment data.

After selecting the cell range B7:D81 and choosing Insert, Name Create, we choose to create names in the

top row of the range. The range B8:B81 is named Stocks, the range C8:C81 T.Bills, and the range D8:D81

T.Bonds. Now we no longer need to remember where our data is. For example, in cell B84, after typing

=AVERAGE(, we can press F3 and the Paste Name dialog box appears, as shown in Figure 1-7.

Figure 1-7: You can add a range name to a formula by using the Paste Name dialog box.

Then we can select Stocks in the Paste Name list and click OK. After enteringthe closing parentheses, our

formula, =AVERAGE(Stocks), computes the average return on stocks (12.05 percent). The beauty of this

approach is that even if we don't remember where the data is, we can work with the stock return data

anywhere in the workbook!

If we use a column name (in the form A:A, C:C, and so on) in a formula, Excel treats an entire column as a

range name. For example, entering the formula =AVERAGE(A:A) will average all numbers in column A.

Using a range name for an entire column is very helpful if you frequently enter new data into a column. For

example, if column A contains monthly sales of a product, as new sales data is entered each month, our

formula always computes an uptodate monthly sales average. I caution you, however, that if you enter the

formula =AVERAGE(A:A) in column A, you will get a circular reference message because the value of the

cell containing the average formula depends on the cell containing the average. You will learn how to resolve

circular references later in the book, in Chapter 11.

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