Lựa chọn mục tiêu tăng trưởng: lạm bàn về bài học kinh nghiệm

Kinh te-Na hoi

LLTQ chon muc tieu tdng traang:

[am ban vO bai boc kinh nohiem

Ddi vdi dien bien nen tinh kinh te dd qua, viec ddnh

gid, tong ke't Id rdt quon trpng. Nhung quon trpng hon

Id rut ro bdi hpc kinh nghiem - boi qud khU khdng the

Idy loi dupc, nhung qud khu Igi Id kinh nghiem cho

tuong loi. ^ MINH PHUONG

Lua chon, trung hoa va

dieu chinh muc tieu uu tien

Qud'c gia nfio cung dua ra "hi

giac muc tidu" ky vgng, bao gdm:

tang trudng nhanh, lam phfit thfip,

can can thanh toan cd sd du va

that nghiep It. Tuy hi hidng lfi vay,

nhung ft cd qud'c gia nao cung

mdt luc dat dugc ca bd'n muc tieu,

ma thudng phai lya chgn uu tien.

Ddi vdi Viet Nam, trong nhidu

nam dudc day thudng uu tidn tang

trudng, do cd GDP binh quan dau

ngudi thfip; do dQng trudc nguy

CO tut hau xa hon. Sau dd lai phai

tim didm trung hoa giua muc tieu

uu tien vdi cac muc tidu it uu tien

hon, dd tranh tinh trang "hy sinh"

cac muc tieu khac cho muc tieu

uu tien (nhu bdi chi dudi 5% GDP,

lam phat thfip hon tang trudng,

nhfip sidu dudi 10% tien tdi thang

bfing sau nam 2015.

Trong didu kien cua ndn kinh te'

dang chuydn ddi, hdi nhap sau

rdng hon, ed do md cvta khfi ldn (ty

le xufit nhap khau so vdi GDP dQng

thQ 5 the'gidi), trong dieu kien toan

cfiu hofi, the'gidi phang, thi sy cdng

hudng cua cac ye'u kem d trong

nudc vdi didn bien phQc tap, khd

ludng tQ tinh hinh the gidi cang lam

cho didn bie'n d trong nudc bi

khueeh dai ldn. Vi vay, viec nfim

bfit kip thcri diin bien vfi nhanh

nhay didu chinh muc tieu uu tien

cho phu hgp la rat cfin thiet.

Nam 2008, 2009, Viet Nam da

thyc hien tuong dd'i td't bfii hgc

kinh nghiem chuyen tQ uu tien

tang trudng sang uu tien kiem che

lam phfit, rdi chuydn tQ uu tien

kidm chd lam phat sang uu tien

ngan chan suy giam kinh te. Nhd

vay da khdng roi vao vdng xofiy

ciia cudc khung hoang (dd vd

ngan hang, doanh nghiep), kinh te

khdng bi suy thofii (tang trudng

am), ma chi bi suy giam td'c dd

tang trudng, sau dd da thofit day

vugt dd'c di ldn. Bude sang nam

2010, muc tieu dd ra la tang

trudng kinh te cao hon, nhung uu

tidn dn dinh vi md. Trong bdi

canh tang trudng kinh te vQa mdi

bi roi xud'ng dfiy (nam 2009 tang

5,32%, thap nhfit tinh tQ nam

2000), ne'u nam 2010 khdng cao

hon thi se khdng the tie'n tdi phuc

hdi trong nhiing nam tdi, khd thyc

hien dugc muc tieu an sinh xa

hdi,... Phai uu tidn dn dinh kinh td

Vl md, vi nam trudc thyc hidn uu

tien ngan chan suy giam kinh td

da phai chfip nhan cfip bu lai sufit,

tang trudng tfn dung cao, bdi chi

ngan sfich ldn, nhap sidu cao, dd

cdng hudng vdi lam phat khi kinh

te the gidi phuc hdi. Tuy nhidn, do

tQ thang 4 den thfing 8 CPI tang

thfip, lai chua hdt didn bien phQc

tap d trong nudc (lu lut cha di xat

lai d midn Trung, ty gifi, gia

vang,...) cdng hudng vdi bidn

ddng gifi trdn the gidi, nen da

khdng sdm chuyen sang muc tidu

uu tien cua uu tien la kidm chd

lam phfit. Mac du gfin dfiy da

chuyen sang muc tieu kidm che

lam phat la uu tien cua uu tien,

nhung vfin khdng thyc hidn dugc

muc tieu kidm che lam phfit (muc

tieu dfiu lfi dudi 7%, muc tieu didu

chinh dudi 8%, muc tidu khdng

vugt qua mdt chQ sd). Mac du

myc tieu tang trudng kinh te dang

d the' vugt, ty le thfit nghiep dugc

kidm che, nhap sieu giam ca vd

kim ngach va ty 16, nhung viec

khdng thyc hien dugc muc tidu

lam phfit da lam cho nidm vui ddi

vdi 3 muc tieu tren khdng trgn

ven, trai lai cdn lfim budn ldng

ngudi tidu dung khi Dai hdi Dang,

khi Td't cd truydn dang den gfin.

26 Thue Nhd NUOC so 3 (313)-KY 3/1/2011